New GolfWRX Column: My Masters Breakdown

[Richie3Jack]

Back by popular demand, my breakdown of who can win the Masters:



Last year, I created a filter to help predict the golfers that were most likely to win the Masters. I got the list down to 23 players. In the end, eight of the top-10 finishers were on that list of 23 players that included the eventual winner Adam Scott and runner-up Angel Cabrera.

Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes versus the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in score exists. Going into last year, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. However, after last year, the data is trending differently and now the critical holes are Nos. 7, 12, 13 and 18. With the Eisenhower Tree and some other trees down after the winter storms this year, I would suspect that No. 17 will be easier and it may be a long time before the 17th is a critical hole at the Masters again. Either way, I would watch out for this new set of critical holes as the tournament goes along

Read More: www.golfwrx.com/192949/the-23-players-who-can-win-the-masters/

[willgolfer]

I think youre wrong to take guys like Dufner, Zach Johnson, Mcdowell, Haas, Francesco Molinari of youre potential winners list. Those guys have every bit as good or better chance than guys like Cink, Matsuyama, Vijay. But we'll have to see what happens.

[Richie3Jack]

Molinari - No data with regards to him so I have no idea how well he hits it.

Dufner - Hits it well, but is 177th out of 179 players in Max Height.

Zach - Hit it well, but is short. Started hitting the ball higher this year. Not overly great success at ANGC outside of 2007 when there were record low temperatures. I think he'll make the cut and a top-25 finish....but winning is a different story unless the weather acts up.

McDowell - One of the lower hitters on Tour. 155th out of 179 players in Max Height. Also plays a left-to-right ball.

Haas - Hasn't hit it well this year:

Driving Effectiveness: 53rd
Green Zone (75-125 yards): 106th
Yellow Zone (125-175 yards): 143rd
Red Zone (175-225 yards): 121st


Here's the rankings of the players you don't like:








3JACK

[willgolfer]

I never said I don't like those players, I just think the players I mentioned have every bit as good a chance to win as them. The other night on the golf channel Chamblee was talking about one of the years Mickelson won, his stats coming into the tournament were terrible in terms of gir and putts gained, but that week he was very high up in those categories. So I wouldn't look to those stats to tell you much of anything. Mcdowell can hit it both ways very well, he's very effective hitting a draw. The European tour website has stats for Molinari if youre interested.

[Richie3Jack]

Greens in Regulation is a flawed and incomplete metric. Danger Zone play is based on Proximity to the Cup on shots from 175-225 yards. So Chamblee's metrics are not overly important.

I watched McDowell at Bay Hill. He hit nothing but fades. And he hits it low.





3JACK

[willgolfer]

It wasn't just gir, it was his ballstriking in general, Phil was hitting danger zone shots everywhere, missing in both directions and sometimes way offline, but not during the
Masters. Ive seen Mcdowell and he can work it both ways if he wants.

[gmbtempe]

Your comparing Phil with the rest of those guys, kinda apples and oranges in terms of talent and place in the game. I dont think Phil's play has much bearing on anything as I would imagine its hard to even get up for regular events and when you have the money he does its probably less motivation. Now majors get your attention.

[willgolfer]

Yeah I would agree with that, his only concern now is getting ready for and winning majors.

[Richie3Jack]

Chamblee likes to use statistics, but he's not educated or trained on them. So I take his metrics with a grain of salt.

Click to enlarge the attachment below. It shows the rankings of Phil in the years he won the Masters (2004, 2006 and 2010). Now...the PGA Tour does not have a GIR % from 200-225 yards. It only has GIR % from 200+ yards.




We can see a large discrepancy between Phil's GIR % and his Proximity to the Cup. Given Phil's success on Tour, it is just another example of why GIR % is a flawed look at the game and a player's skill level.

The year that most closely resembles what Chamblee is talking about is 2010. He was very good from 200-225 yards but struggled a bit from 175-200 yards.

However, a closer look at his struggles from 175-200 yards shows that it came from the rough. He was 154th on shots from the rough from 175-200 yards. Meanwhile, he was 21st in shots from the fairway from 175-200 yards. And with Augusta, there is no real rough to speak of.

So looking only at the GIR % and not looking at proximity to the cup gives a false flag.






3JACK

[willgolfer]

I believe he was talking about 2010. But he was just talking about before the 2010 Masters not the whole year.

[Richie3Jack]

I get that.

I'm just showing my line of thinking. And that looking at GIR % is not nearly as important as Proximity to the Cup and they can be vastly different from each other. Those GIR % are on the shot actually hit...so the drive really doesn't come into play in determining the GIR % in that particular metric.





3JACK

[willgolfer]

The scores don't seem all that low so far. Im a bit surprised to see guys like Matsuyama and Dufner shooting so high.

[gmbtempe]

Pretty much perfect weather as well, little breeze but the course is kicking their butts.

[willgolfer]

I like when Chamblee rips modern instruction. He was just talking now about how Adam Scott has gotten better since he has gone to a more rounded relaxed posture like Jack Nicklaus. He also seems to favor more upright golf swings.

[Richie3Jack]

Listening to Brandel is a big headache for me. I usually get frustrated and turn the channel. I heard him talk about Adam's more rounded posture. But, Brandel has championed Butch Harmon for years and Butch is very much into the 'flat spine' at address. It wasn't until he worked with Brad Malone that he rounded his posture. And you know who promotes a rounded shoulders posture at address?

Sean Foley, The 5SK guys, the S&T guys and M.O.R.A.D (and they really all got it from Mac which they readily admit to).

He boldly bashes modern instruction for being out on the range and taking video and Trackman before a tournament. It happens everywhere. Justin Rose and Jason Dufner do it before each tournament and they won Majors last year.

He recites Nicklaus saying that Jack Grout never left the stands, but then checks himself by saying 'well, when Butch Harmon does it is okay.'

My feeling is, and having discussed a lot of similar things with Dr. Bhrett McCabe, is that it depends on the player and what they are comfortable and what works for them. Not everybody is going to be the same. Some love the routine of working with an instructor, tidying up their swing mechanics and looking at their launch monitor numbers. Others don't.

He just seems to go out of his way to really rag on golf instruction. That's not bad in itself, but he is often very misinformed by what is going on instead of digging for the information of what is really going on and why. At least if he did that and was criticizing golf instruction I could live with him having valid facts and logic behind his criticism.

And to me I think he's being led by Butch on a lot of these things. I think if Butch was telling him that 'you know, some of these young instructors and the equipment they use is really good'...I don't think Brandel would be so quick to bash golf instruction. Instead, I think he's basically parroting what Butch is telling him.





3JACK