Post by Richie3Jack on Jul 16, 2014 9:15:45 GMT -5
I've been experimenting with a new metric that I will discuss further in 2014 Pro Golf Synopsis. I haven't come up with a name for the metric, but here is the simple formula:
(GIR Missed % * 100) + Proximity to the Cup (ft)
So, if a golfer hits 60% of their greens and has a proximity to the cup of 30 feet, they would come out to a score of 70.
(0.40 Greens Missed * 100) + 30 ft Prox 2 Cup = 70
I wanted to do this for specific distance ranges. However, the Tour only does it for 25-yard increments from 75-200 yards. So they split it into the following:
75-100 yards GIR %
100-125 yards GIR %
125-150 yards GIR %
150-175 yards GIR %
175-200 yards GIR %
200+ yards GIR %
So I can't do a 'Red Zone 175-225 yard GIR %' because they don't really record the GIR % from 200-225 yards.
Not to worry, because....
Adding the GIR% to the Proximity to the Cup offer little to no correlation to success on Tour once you get past 200 yards. I've tested this out many times and recorded players' data. Once you get over 200 yards, being able to hit the ball closer to the cup is far more important than hitting GIR's. It's mainly due to from that distance, even Tour players have little ability to 'just aim for the middle of the green.' If they want to find the greens from 200+ yards, they need to hit the ball as close as they can to the hole and that will increase their likelihood.
However, from 75-150 yards we see that players that have a higher GIR% but a poor Prox 2 Cup actually *hurts* their score. It's not until we get into the 150-200 yard range that we see it beneficial to hit the ball close and find the greens.
While I use following yardages for the 'zones':
Green Zone (75-125 yards)
Yellow Zone (125-175 yards)
Red Zone (175-225 yards)
I often do analyze a Tour player's performance from 150-200 yards.
This is generally where Tour players tend to separate themselves in making birdies on the par-4's. From 150-200 yards is typically a range where Tour players are going to make par. The better performers from this distance are getting these shots closer to the hole on average and are giving themselves more opportunities to make birdies. Now...whether or not their putting can hole that putt is a different story.
But, what I was curious about was the players with PURE SKILL from 150-200 yards.
The best way to 'cheat the system' from this distance is what I discussed in my latest GolfWRX column....keep your ball in the fairway.
If my average proximity to the cup from the fairway is 25 feet and from the rough is 40 feet, I can simply greatly improve my TOTAL proximity to the cup average if I have a higher percentage of those shots coming from the fairway without actually improving my skill.
So, I looked at the following:
1. GIR % from 150-200 yards
2. Proximity to the Cup from 150-200 yards
3. % of shots from fairway/tee box from 150-200 yards
Ideally, a player that could do well in the (GIR % missed *100) + Proximity to the Cup formula while having a LOW % of those shots coming from the fairway would have the most 'pure skill' from 150-200 yards.
Conversely, the player that has most of his shots from 150-200 yards while performing poorly in the GIR % missed + Prox 2 Cup formula would be less skilled from 150-200 yards.
On a side note...if you're a poor iron player....you may want to focus on your driving to keep your ball in good position so your iron play won't kill you.
Anyway, I created an algorithm based on 'pure skill.' Here are the current top-10 players:
1. Chad Campbell
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Peter Hanson
4. Kyle Stanley
5. Nick Watney
6. Harris English
7. Seung-Yul Noh
8. Kevin Stadler
9. Kevin Chappell
10. Ryan Palmer
Here are the bottom-10:
182. Jamie Lovemark
183. Ben Curtis
184. Tim Herron
185. D.A. Points
186. Brian Davis
187. Martin Kaymer
188. Peter Malnati
189. Darren Clarke
190. Charl Schwartzel
191. Paul Goydos
Now, you may see somebody like Schwartzel and Kaymer in the bottom-10 and ask 'why are 2 great players in the bottom-10?'
Well, they make up for their poor play from 150-200 yards by driving the ball well. And usually they hit the ball well from 200-250 yards and from 100-150 yards and they can putt and chip. So while their pure skill from 150-200 yards is poor (this year), they are putting themselves in good position off the tee to not make it so bad. And that's pretty amazing from Kaymer considering he won the Players and the US Open.
But, the one guy at the top is Chad Campbell.
He ranked 1st in GIR % from 150-200 yards and 17th in Proximity to the Cup.
However, he was only 137th in the percentage of shots from 150-200 yards that come from the fairway/tee box. His driving has really held him back. But, he's clearly an elite iron player.
Let's take a look at his swing:
I looked at Chad's radar metrics and they look pretty 'standard.'
He doesn't generate a lot of club head speed (111-112 mph), but he's not slow either. He has a miss tendency of 53% to the left which is fine. He appears to have a flat (0 degrees) attack angle. and generates around 2,500 rpm's.
His swing probably reminds me most of Dufner's, but Campbell stalls out a bit more and doesn't release it like Dufner does.
3JACK
(GIR Missed % * 100) + Proximity to the Cup (ft)
So, if a golfer hits 60% of their greens and has a proximity to the cup of 30 feet, they would come out to a score of 70.
(0.40 Greens Missed * 100) + 30 ft Prox 2 Cup = 70
I wanted to do this for specific distance ranges. However, the Tour only does it for 25-yard increments from 75-200 yards. So they split it into the following:
75-100 yards GIR %
100-125 yards GIR %
125-150 yards GIR %
150-175 yards GIR %
175-200 yards GIR %
200+ yards GIR %
So I can't do a 'Red Zone 175-225 yard GIR %' because they don't really record the GIR % from 200-225 yards.
Not to worry, because....
Adding the GIR% to the Proximity to the Cup offer little to no correlation to success on Tour once you get past 200 yards. I've tested this out many times and recorded players' data. Once you get over 200 yards, being able to hit the ball closer to the cup is far more important than hitting GIR's. It's mainly due to from that distance, even Tour players have little ability to 'just aim for the middle of the green.' If they want to find the greens from 200+ yards, they need to hit the ball as close as they can to the hole and that will increase their likelihood.
However, from 75-150 yards we see that players that have a higher GIR% but a poor Prox 2 Cup actually *hurts* their score. It's not until we get into the 150-200 yard range that we see it beneficial to hit the ball close and find the greens.
While I use following yardages for the 'zones':
Green Zone (75-125 yards)
Yellow Zone (125-175 yards)
Red Zone (175-225 yards)
I often do analyze a Tour player's performance from 150-200 yards.
This is generally where Tour players tend to separate themselves in making birdies on the par-4's. From 150-200 yards is typically a range where Tour players are going to make par. The better performers from this distance are getting these shots closer to the hole on average and are giving themselves more opportunities to make birdies. Now...whether or not their putting can hole that putt is a different story.
But, what I was curious about was the players with PURE SKILL from 150-200 yards.
The best way to 'cheat the system' from this distance is what I discussed in my latest GolfWRX column....keep your ball in the fairway.
If my average proximity to the cup from the fairway is 25 feet and from the rough is 40 feet, I can simply greatly improve my TOTAL proximity to the cup average if I have a higher percentage of those shots coming from the fairway without actually improving my skill.
So, I looked at the following:
1. GIR % from 150-200 yards
2. Proximity to the Cup from 150-200 yards
3. % of shots from fairway/tee box from 150-200 yards
Ideally, a player that could do well in the (GIR % missed *100) + Proximity to the Cup formula while having a LOW % of those shots coming from the fairway would have the most 'pure skill' from 150-200 yards.
Conversely, the player that has most of his shots from 150-200 yards while performing poorly in the GIR % missed + Prox 2 Cup formula would be less skilled from 150-200 yards.
On a side note...if you're a poor iron player....you may want to focus on your driving to keep your ball in good position so your iron play won't kill you.
Anyway, I created an algorithm based on 'pure skill.' Here are the current top-10 players:
1. Chad Campbell
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Peter Hanson
4. Kyle Stanley
5. Nick Watney
6. Harris English
7. Seung-Yul Noh
8. Kevin Stadler
9. Kevin Chappell
10. Ryan Palmer
Here are the bottom-10:
182. Jamie Lovemark
183. Ben Curtis
184. Tim Herron
185. D.A. Points
186. Brian Davis
187. Martin Kaymer
188. Peter Malnati
189. Darren Clarke
190. Charl Schwartzel
191. Paul Goydos
Now, you may see somebody like Schwartzel and Kaymer in the bottom-10 and ask 'why are 2 great players in the bottom-10?'
Well, they make up for their poor play from 150-200 yards by driving the ball well. And usually they hit the ball well from 200-250 yards and from 100-150 yards and they can putt and chip. So while their pure skill from 150-200 yards is poor (this year), they are putting themselves in good position off the tee to not make it so bad. And that's pretty amazing from Kaymer considering he won the Players and the US Open.
But, the one guy at the top is Chad Campbell.
He ranked 1st in GIR % from 150-200 yards and 17th in Proximity to the Cup.
However, he was only 137th in the percentage of shots from 150-200 yards that come from the fairway/tee box. His driving has really held him back. But, he's clearly an elite iron player.
Let's take a look at his swing:
I looked at Chad's radar metrics and they look pretty 'standard.'
He doesn't generate a lot of club head speed (111-112 mph), but he's not slow either. He has a miss tendency of 53% to the left which is fine. He appears to have a flat (0 degrees) attack angle. and generates around 2,500 rpm's.
His swing probably reminds me most of Dufner's, but Campbell stalls out a bit more and doesn't release it like Dufner does.
3JACK
