Sorry, I didn't see your post.
In
2015 Pro Golf Synopsis, I've got an essay that has some interesting findings with regards to laying up. It's helped change my thinking a little on golf. The game is still an 'offensive' game versus a 'defensive' game. The findings helped me further understand just how offensive minded it is.
Here's the hole in question:
The numbers are the projected scores if the player hits their tee shot in that area.
I'm assuming that Rickie hit it where it says 3.885 as that is the narrowest part of the fairway.
That's about 130-140 yards to the hole and is in a good spot to be. They list the hole at 399 yards. Maybe there was some wind behind them, the driving distances at Firestone were extremely long all week.
I don't think this is the correct play as the numbers point out.
If he misses into the right bunker or the left rough, he's got an average of 4.233 (left rough) or 4.224 (right bunker).
I don't think it's a horrible decision because with an iron off the tee there's a bit more control than hitting a fairway wood which would probably put him into the furthest level (3.795 in the fairway). With an iron, the spin loft is greater so the ball is going to curve less. The spin is greater so it's not going to roll as much. I've mentioned the various issues with hitting 3-woods off the tee. In fact, I try to avoid it as much as I can. Perhaps Rickie has the same philosophy.
But it does warrant mentioning that you have to be thoughtful when it comes to choosing when to lay up. It's like I said in
Pro Golf Synopsis over the years...laying up should be the LAST option you should consider. I personally try to think of any way I can feasibly and reasonably not lay up and consider all of those options before I start to consider laying up.
And this case is a great example. A lot of times people see a narrow fairway and think they should not hit driver. But, if it's narrower in the area where their layup shot will end up, then it could very well be counterproductive. Or a course like the Mission Inn Las Colinas course where it's so tight throughout the entire fairway you could easily end up in trouble if you lay up, you might as well pull out the driver and at least get to hit it further. If you end up in the trees at that course, at least you still have a shorter shot to the hole than if you layed-up and would still likely find the trees.
The 13th hole at Bay Hill is a classic trap that pros fall into and I can never convince my clients to stop laying up off that tee:
About 90% of the players will lay up into the 120-140 yard area (measured to the middle of the green). And they will lay up to that spot regardless of where the pin is located.
The players that have not layed up, even if they did not find the fairway have hit their approach shots on average far, far, far closer to the hole than if they layed up.
But not only is the approach shot more difficult if you lay-up, but you have to contend with the fairway bunkers on the lay-up shot. Unless you are a bomber and can put it into the water off the tee, the best play, by far, is to not lay-up off this tee. It makes the drive easier and the approach shot easier.
A big problem for Tour players is that they tend to play the holes the same way. One player and his caddie decide to play the hole a certain way and the rest follow suit.
Granted, I think they play holes correctly more often than they play holes incorrectly. But, there's an incredibly lack of willing to try something out.
I had 2 clients play 13 how I told them and they both struck the approach close and...they didn't want to play the hole like that again.
They are uncomfortable in not conforming and make that big mistake rather than focusing on making the birdie even if it forces you to do something different from the rest of the group.
Anyway, I would suggest laying up on a par-4 by using the same advice I've used in every
Pro Golf Synopsis, try to gauge where you will end up if you take your 'average' swing at the ball. Perhaps Rickie felt he could have hit driver, taken his average pass at the ball and there was too good of a chance that he could still end up in the trees or the bunker. And he could have felt that if he takes an average swing at the ball and hits an iron off the tee, his ball would likely end up in the fairway.
For instance, this weekend I'm playing Eagle Creek with my dad. I know the 2nd hole I'm laying up.
The graphic really doesn't do it justice, but the fairway is very narrow once you get past the bunkers.
Of course, if I'm past the bunkers on my drive and in the right rough, I'll take that with a shorter shot than being in the fairway and with a longer shot. But, there's just too good of a chance I can take my average swing (even a 'good' swing) and still end up in trouble...mostly in the water hazard on the left. Instead, I take out my 2-hybrid and I'll have about 120-140 yards into the green. Again...I would love to be 60-80 yards in the rough over 120-140 yards in the fairway, but the risk of getting into some major trouble even off a decent golf swing is too high.
Hope this helps.
3JACK
