Gameplanning For Walkabout

[Richie3Jack]

This Saturday I plan to play 18 holes at the Pete Dye designed Walkabout Golf Club, located in Mims, Florida. I wanted to use my knowledge from the statistical research I’ve done and ‘gameplan’ for the course and share those thoughts with you. We’ll assume that my average driver goes about 290 yards.

For more about Walkabout Golf Club, go to www.walkaboutgolf.com

#1 – 435 yard par 4



One of the most difficult holes on the course. The fairway is pretty tight, but it’s even more difficult because it’s a semi-blind tee shot. If I can hit a good driver in the fairway, the hole is pretty easy. I should be comfortably out of the Danger Zone with a decent driver. If I miss, I need to miss right into the bunker because left actually slopes off and will put you in the hazard. I believe a little lower than normal trajectory off the tee with a driver works here to keep the ball in play. If I find the bunker, then there’s a decent chance I will lay up and just try to come away with bogey. Although I could have a makeable fairway bunker shot. Bogey isn’t not going to end your round here.


#2 – 557 yard par 5

Not that difficult of a hole if you know where to go with your driver. I’ll play it up the right side. That may take away my chance of reaching it in two, but I’ll have a wedge in anyway. Tough green to putt on, may want to think about keeping it below the cup on the approach shot.


#3 – 187 yard par 3

This is a Danger Zone par-3. Tom Watson’s credo of ‘hit it solid and just try to get it on the green’ is in play here. Wide open right of the green as well, so left is really a shot I shouldn’t hit. To me, you’ve got 3 big shots in the first 3 holes…the approaches on #2 and #3 and the tee shot on #1. Hit those well and you can be -1. Do mediocre and you can be +4 or +5.


#4 – 455 yard par 5



Toughest hole on the course, although both times I’ve played here I’ve made par. This gets close to the Danger Zone (455 – 290 = 165). Last time I played here I had 8-iron into the green, but the pin was up front. There’s a *little* more room left than you think, but the obvious play is more to the right. I would project a Danger Zone shot here. So in the first 4 holes you have 2 Danger Zone shots and a huge tee shot to hit on the 1st hole.


#5 – 335 yard par 4

Actually a pretty easy hole. Last time I played here I got robbed with a bad kick that put me right into the pot bunker. If I feel good with the driver I’ll go with it here. Even if the pin is cut up front, I really don’t have a full shot if I choose to hit 3-wood or 3-hybrid Statistics say you’ll likely hit it about 30% closer to the hole from 30-50 yards away than from 75-100 yards away.


#6 – 377 yard par 4



I can’t hit driver here as this is a bit of a weird hole. Hitting it long off the tee doesn’t really help either because you can hit a 4-iron and have less distance to the flag than if you crush a driver. Shouldn’t be in the Danger Zone. The key shot here is the tee shot.


#7 – 214 yards par 3

Another Danger Zone shot here which would make that the 3rd Danger Zone shot for the front 9. This is a bigger shot because it’s in the 200-225 yard range. Probably hitting a 3-iron and will need to put some extra practice in with that club. Better off missing right than left.


#8 – 401 yards par 4

A little weird as far as driving the ball goes, but if you hit one well off the tee, it’s probably a SW into green. Green runs away, but with a SW not a problem.


#9 – 563 yards par 5

Not really much to the hole other than water on the left side, but if you hit a good 2nd shot, you won’t go in the water. Gigantic green, so be leery of that and don’t left it create an illusion.


FRONT NINE: Projected 3 Danger Zone Shots (#3, #4, and #7). Other key shots (#1 tee shot, #2 approach, #6 tee shot)



#10 – 396 yard par 4

The green is the tough part here, so better off to find the fairway than to miss it since you’ll need what you can to get close to the pin


#11 – 208 yard par 3

Danger Zone shot and again, from the 200-225 yard increment. No water hazard here though, but in order to have a chance at getting up and down for par, need to avoid the left side.


#12 – 468 yard par 4



A long, but wide open par-4. The key here is to make good, hard contact. No real need to knife one. I was in the trap on the right last time and almost jarred it, so Dye designed this hole to make the up and downs relatively easy. Very likely to have a Danger Zone shot here again.


#13 – 589 yards par 5

Won’t reach this in two, but a wide open hole. Get a SW into the approach with the green a little elevated.


#14 – 402 yards par 4

Relatively open with the driver. Approach is pretty open as well.


#15 – 168 yards par 3



Borders on a Danger Zone shot if the pin is in back. IIRC, last time the pin was in back and I only hit a 7-iron, which I hit about 170-175 yards. If the pin is cut back left, you kinda want to go for it because if you find the middle of the green, it’s a tough 2-putt. I missed it just left last time and chipped in. You can miss left, just not too much left. If the pin is up front, do not miss left at all.


#16 – 357 yards par 4

Need to aim left of the fairway bunkers. Short hole with a narrow green. Avoid pot bunker left of green at all costs.


#17 – 558 yards par 5

Wide open hole and reachable. Putting green is tough,


#18 – 445 yards par 4

Need to aim pretty far left on the teen shot. Ball will roll quite a bit, so you can have a 9-iron into the approach. Green is more to the left than you think and shots that look like they are the right side of the green are actually off the green.


TOTAL PROJECTED DANGER ZONE SHOTS:

#3 – PAR 3 (175-200 YARDS)
#4 – PAR 4 (175-200 YARDS)
#12 - PAR 4 (175-200 YARDS)

#7 – PAR 3 (200-225 YARDS)
#11 – PAR 3 (200-225 YARDS)

OTHER KEY SHOTS

#1 – tee shot
#2 – approach shot
#4 – tee shot
#6 – tee shot
#12 – tee shot
#18 – tee shot


GENERAL THOUGHTS:

I think the front 9 is much harder than the back 9. I think Dye tries to shake the confidence of the golfer very early on with some semi-blind tee shots and Danger Zone shots. The birdie holes are #5, #8 and #9, but they in the middle of very difficult holes. Then on the back 9 the birdie holes are #13, #14, #16 and #17. But after the tough front nine, the golfer may be mentally out of it.

I think when in doubt, lower the trajectory to keep the ball in play and let the hard ground do the work. And when you miss a shot in the Danger Zone, try to ensure a bogey and give yourself a chance at par.








3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Probably going to play Eastwood on Sunday. I’ve got an AimPoint clinic about 45 minutes away that morning with John Graham (www.johngrahamgolf.com) and then I’ll probably rest a bit, hit some balls and play 18.

Since I’m more familiar with Eastwood, no need to do a hole-by-hole.

DANGER ZONE SHOTS

#3 (185 yard par-3)
#8 (191 yard par-3)
#14 (180 yard par-3)

#12 (205 yard par-3)

POSSIBLE DANGER ZONE SHOTS

#4 (approach shot, par-4)
#11 (approach shot, par-4)


OTHER KEY SHOTS

#1 drive
#9 drive
#10 drive

The tee shots on #4 and #11 are important as well as they can decide whether or not I wind up with a Danger Zone shot. Friday I had Driver and 9-iron into #4 and a couple of weeks ago I had Driver and 8-iron into #11.


So….we can get it down to these critical shots:

#1 – tee shot, par-4
#3 – tee shot (approach) par-3
#4 – tee shot, possible DZ shot, par-4
#8 – tee shot (approach), par-3
#9 – tee shot, par-4
#10 – tee shot, par-5
#11 – tee shot and approach, par-4
#12 – tee shot (approach), par-3
#14 – tee shot (approach), par-3

Seems tougher than it actually is. This course is a pure bomb-n-gouge course. As I’ve seen with my statistical research, there is a correlation between clubhead speed and Danger Zone performance. The course is long, but wide open with some very long par-3’s. So it’s more meant for Vijay Singh instead of Jeev Milkha Singh.

Here’s the holes that I have an average score that is above par

#11……0.667
#3……0.500
#8……0.333
#5……0.333
#4……0.167
#7……0.167
#13……0.167
#12……0.167


I’m not too worried about #4, #5, #12, and #13 as they are tough holes with scores that are only slightly above par. That leaves holes #3, #7, #8 and #11 as holes to look at more closely.

#3 I need to figure out how to aim better. I’m hitting shots solid, but missing the green. Last year I would miss it to the right, this year I’m mostly missing with a hook left. Better to miss there than to miss right, but I’m missing too far left and it’s making for difficult up and downs.

#7 is really an easy hole that I usually master. I’ve struggled recently with some poor lies form the fairway and rough and I miss left. I need to eliminate the left miss on the approach here.

#8 – I’ve made good contact here and missed the green. Need to be more careful with the wind. It may be a function of my Project X shafts in my Mizuno’s as I tend to balloon them a bit into the wind and we’ve had the wind in my face the last few times I’ve player here.

#11 – Bad driving has hurt me here. Try to cut the corner and I get punished. Try to play it safe and I tend to take a back swing.


Overall, I think the them here is to be patient and to focus my efforts on good, solid, hard contact instead of trying to bomb one because gaining 20 yards won’t help you much on this course and the risk of mis-hitting one is too penalizing and going into the hazard is a bad mistake since it’s relatively open.




3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

3JACK -

Have you found that with this much game planning that you get too focused on your score and mechanics? That happens to me when I try to game plan with such detail as above. I love detail with greens and hidden danger, but like Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get hit and I often get hit in the face when golfing according to a game plan.

[Richie3Jack]

I always have tried to understand what the architect was thinking when they designed the course. Walkabout's gameplan is simple to understand...when in doubt off the tee, keep it low. Play for the up and down on the first three par-3's (#3, #7 and #11) and the long par-4 #12. And it's easy to see Pete Dye's thinking...rattle the golfer's cage on the first 7 holes, let up a little on #8 and #9, then rattle them a bit on #10-12 (although I was told that Dye originally designed for #10 to be the first hole but they changed that because in the morning the sun would blind golfers). Then the golfer has some holes to score on in the last 7 holes, but by then they may be frustrated. It's very much a course where if you can avoid hazards, 3-putts and double bogeys, I can shoot a pretty good score even if I don't have my A game with me.

Even if you go with the 'it's the process that's important, not the score', you can easily get 'punched in the face.' In the club championship in 2009 I played in, my goals were to have no 3-putts and nothing more than a bogey on a hole and to hit 36/54 GIR. I did that on day 1, but on the first hole in day 2, I 3 jack and take a double to start off with. You can't just give up and say that the gameplan sucks or that the process is ruined.

The other day at Eastwood I doubled the first hole. I could've just gave up, but instead I remembered that the lowest round I ever shot (64, which I shot twice) I had a double bogey in that round once (which came off a 4-putt, incredibly enough). That was on the 13th hole in that round, but what's the difference between doubling the first hole or doubling the 13th hole? Nothing. Just go out and play your game.

I'm also the type of person that does best when I'm prepared for stuff. Even something like having a surgical procedure, it helps me to be prepared for it. If I know it's going to hurt a bit, I deal with the pain much better if I'm told well beforehand it's going to be painful. But if it's something that hurts less, but I'm never told about it, my brain and psyche doesn't handle that well.

One of my favorite things I heard once was when Billy Cundiff was the kicker for the Cowboys and Bill Parcells was coach. Cundiff usually brought 3 pairs of shoes to a game with him, figuring that was good enough and that he should be able to get one of the pairs of shoes with him that would provide the proper footing for him.

Cundiff did that for one game, thought he had the shoes that worked for him...but he slipped a bit, lost his footing and missed an important field goal. Cundiff thought he did enough preparation and it was just bad luck, but Parcells didn't see it that way. Instead Parcells felt that he was very unprepared. From there on in, Cundiff brings 7 different pairs of shoes to each game and diligently works them out before the game. Since there's no other different style, THAT is preparation.

As the saying goes, failing to prepare is preparing to fail.





3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

I liked the Cundiff story and understan your thinking better. I might not work for me, but I understand the thought process. Maybe I don't do this because I keep playing the same courses over and over.

[Richie3Jack]

Mar 24, 2011 7:10:00 GMT -5 cwdlaw223 said:

I liked the Cundiff story and understan your thinking better. I might not work for me, but I understand the thought process. Maybe I don't do this because I keep playing the same courses over and over.

The one thing I always try to do is to not play the same courses over and over. That's why I like all of the different sets of irons I have.

Basically, I'm trying to feel comfortable with employing my swing mechanics and what I do on and around the greens. I'm not trying to get comfortable with my home course because chances are I'm not going to play much competitive rounds there.

It's very easy to get comfortable with your home course and halt the progress of your mechanics. I used to know a guy from my hometown in NY who was literally unbeatable at his home course. I mean...I'd take him at his home course over most PGA Tour pros. I remember one time playing in a member-guest tournament and I shot 65 there (granted, it was an easy course) and I thought I would have the low medalist. I was third. Some guy shot 69. This 'hometown hero?'

Shot 61.

But here's the thing, he couldn't break 75 anywhere else. Even on courses that I think were easier than his home course.

Probably even crazier to me is we had two courses about 10 minutes away from each other in my hometown. One course was 6,800 (which back in the days of metal woods felt like 7,100) and it was always super windy there and the ground usually didn't give much roll.

The other course was about 6,200 yards and the ground was usually dry and not a lot of wind.

The city championship would alternate between the courses each year. I would be amazed by the members that could legitimately play the 6,800 yard course to scratch and then not break 80 on the 6,200 yard course. Golfers feeling too comfortable with their home course instead of sharpening up their mechanics.

I think the tough part about gameplanning is when the weather conditions really change things around. For instance, #1 at Eastwood I usually hit a 3-wood or 3-hybrid off the tee. But on Sunday we had about a 35 mph tailwind. I said 'screw it' and hit a driver and hit it well and had about 60 yards into the green. My playing partner went with 3-wood and hit it into the woods. Had he hit driver, he probably would've been down the middle about 60 yards away.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

I’ve been thinking about gameplanning a bit and awhile ago I narrowed down the game into 4 main components

• Danger Zone
• Putting (Putts Gained Per Round or ‘true putting’)
• Driving
• Short Game Around Green (30 yards and in)

The last 3 components, by themselves, are not nearly as statistically important as Danger Zone play. The correlation data for those last 3 components are pretty close to each other. If I had to put them in order, I’d probably put them in the order above.

Mickelson is really an intriguing player for me. I don’t think anybody considers him to be a good ballstriker, but they consider him to be a great player. And with the Putts Gained Stat, he’s shown that he’s a poor putter by PGA Tour standards (I honestly think that your decent mini-tour player could easily out-put him, unless they were an awful putter themselves.)

But with Mickelson, his ‘profile’ is that he’s a great Danger Zone player. Probably in part because he hits it so long that he has a lot less club into the green. And because of his length, he avoids the Danger Zone a lot. And while he can’t putt, his short game around the green is great as well. So if his driver doesn’t ‘get in the way’ by finding trouble where he doesn’t have a shot at the green, he’s usually going to do well. And if he putts about the average for the field that week and does everything else the same as he usually does, he’s likely to get a top 5 finish. It would be scary to think what he could do if he could finish in the top 50 in the Putts Gained Statistic.

I think I have the distance now where accuracy and precision with the driver counts more than anything. I think a good driving day isn’t only the fairways hit and hitting it far, but on par-4’s where there’s possible Danger Zone approach shots, if I can hit drives past that Danger Zone that’s a big added plus. For instance, on #18 at North Shore, a 461 yard par-4, I bombed a driver down the middle 330 yards. Major gain there. That almost takes away any chance of making double bogey (unless I hit a horrible second shot) and the odds of making bogey have greatly reduce. And while making birdie is still a slim %, it’s probably tripled or quadrupled (let’s say a 2% chance if I hit a driver to 180 yards, now to a 10% chance with the drive going to 140 yards)

Conversely, if I hit an awful driver that may put me in the Danger Zone on a hole that typically I would not be in the Danger Zone. Like #10 at North Shore. Usually a driver and a SW. But I hit an awful tee shot (skied right shot) and had 4-iron into the green. I almost hit the GIR and had a pretty easy up and down, but I hit a poor chip and then a poor putt and made bogey. It’s like the old say, a good chip is as good as a bad putt. Well, I don’t believe that is *quite* true, but I think if you’re legitimately chipping it’s riskier than having a legitimate putt on the green for the most part.

So I’m going to start to focus on the holes that I believe are legitimate Danger Zone holes. I would say anything 445 yards or more on a par-4 is a Danger Zone shot. And anything 670 yards or more on a par-5 is a Danger Zone hole. Then of course, 175-225 yards on a par-3 is a Danger Zone hole.

I am basically saying that I believe that on the low side, I’ll hit the ball off the tee 270 yards if I hit it decent. I actually probably average about 290 yards off the tee now (110 mph clubhead speed). But remember, things like hitting into an uphill slope, wind, wet conditions, etc., could factor in. And then with the 3-wood, I’ll say 230 yards. Here’s what I have for projected approach shot yardage at North Shore GC based off of a 270 yard driver or 230 yard 3-wood.

Hole……….Approach Yd
1………...……..31
2………...……..112
3………...……..184
4………...……..154
5………...……..97
6………...……..235
7………...……..59
8………...……..138
9………...……..111
10………...……..94
11………...……..69
12………...……..147
13………...……..130
14………...……..170
15………...……..25
16………...……..50
17………...……..201
18………...……..191

So there are really 5 holes to focus heavier on:

#3 – 454 yard par 4
#6 – 235 yard par 3
#14 – 170 yard par 3 (borders on Danger Zone, water on edge of green)
#17 – 201 yard par 3
#18 – 461 yard par 4

Last time I played North Shore, I was actually only +1 on these holes. I was right at 175 yards on #3, hit a 6-iron into the wind just short, but had a makeable up-n-down and did so.

#6 –I hit into the wind with a 3-wood to 20 feet, 2-putted for par.

#14 – the pin was in back, making it a 184 yard shot into the wind. Took a lousy swing and almost went into the water. Hacked it out and made bogey.

#17 – 4-iron to the left side of the green, 2-putted from 40 feet for par.

#18 – bombed a 330 yard driver. Hit a soft 9-iron and 2-putted for par.

The problem was I hit the driver poorly on the other typically ‘Non-Danger Zone’ holes. Found the fairway bunker on #4 and #5. To make matters worse, found the lips of the fairway bunkers. It was almost like hitting one into a water hazard. Then I hit one in trouble on #9 and my approach shot was well short of the Danger Zone. I parred the hole, but after I hit a terrific 3-wood, a good flop and a good 10-footer to save par.

Then #10 I hit one so bad that I wound up having a Danger Zone shot with a 4-iron on a hole I typically can have a wedge into the green. I shot 75, but IMO, 4 bad drivers cost me at least 4 shots.

I’ll be getting a lesson from George that morning, so a part of me doesn’t expect to play that well.

However, for future gameplanning purposes I need to figure out whether to hit driver or 3-wood on #2, #5, #10 and #12. Then figure out what I want to hit on #16. My guess is driver on #2, 3-wood on #5, 3-wood on #10 and driver on #12. So I’ll stick with that gameplan on Saturday and see how it turns out.





3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Going over some of my thoughts on my latest 9-hole round at Eastwood where I shot 36, but only hit 4 greens in regulation.

#1 - 380 yard par-4.

Typically somebody like myself will not hit driver here because the water hugs the right side and there's a batch of trees on the left that you cannot hit out of. I believe I should only hit driver here if I'm feeling lucky and there's a big tail wind. So I hit 3-hybrid instead and put it to 150 yards to the pin (about a 240 yard shot) right down the middle. Probably an above average shot for the hole. Ideally if I was Dustin Johnson long, I'd pull put the driver and blast it past the water and trees. But, not many are that long, so a nice 3-hybrid does well.

I'm in the safe zone, so making birdie isn't all that likely here. I'm in between clubs because of the wind and I take the choice of a 9-iron because if I am on the green or off the green, I'm going to have an uphill shot if I'm short of the flag and a downhill or sidehill shot if I'm pin high or longer. So I flush the 9-iron, the wind holds it up a bit and I hit it about 140 yards, leaving me with a slightly uphill, 30 foot putt. I 2-putt and make par. (E)


#2 - 532 yards par-5

Okay, the plan here on par-5's is to hit it long if you can and not to worry about the rough so much, but there's no real need to try and cut the corner. So I tried that and tried to hit up on the ball a little more than usual. I caught this one a tad bit off the toe and pulled it a tad. I almost had a great shot, but it just knicked a palm tree and dropped straight down. This left me 248 away (it's a dogleg, so I really only hit it about 260 yards, but it hugged the corner, so I didn't have a lot of distnace into the green. I was in the fairway, but really had no shot other that to hook an 8-iron around the trees. That hurt me a bit because now I can't get into the 'Birdie Zone' (60 or less yards) on the approach shot.

To make it worse, I hit a good shot, but got jobbed on a lie. I was on a small hill and in the rough about 140 yards away and uphill. Here is where you think 'hit it solid and just get it on the green.' I hit a shot solid, but too solid and it surprising went over.

The good news is that it was a pretty standard lie and shot into the flag. The bad news is that it did slope downhill a bit. This is where execution is important in scoring because there's probably something close to 50/50 odds for me to get up and down. If I had the same shot but to an uphill slope, my odds of getting up and down are much better. Anyway, I use the Rule of 12 chip with a PW and knock it to a foot and kick in for par.

So, I got some bad breaks on that hole with the driver and the 3rd shot, but still executed well enough to save par. (E)


#3 - 181 yards par-3

Danger Zone shot so the goal here is to hit it solid and find the green and realize that your misses will likely be tough to get up and down from. I played it left of the flag, but that's because you have to on this shot. The pin was cut back right and it's obvious nobody wants to flirt with the right side because it's O.B. over there. The good news is that if I miss left, I'll have an uphill chip. Unfortunately I hit one well off the toe and wound up in the bunker, with a 30 yard bunker shot.

I'd imagine the the odds were good here, but I hit a very good shot to 5-feet. To make matters better, I had an uphill putt and I drained the putt.

Making par from the Danger Zone is a good thing, however I really needed to hit that solid and miss it left instead of missing it into the bunker. Got away with one there. (E)


#4 - 433 yard par-4

This is a hole where I'm likely to have a Danger Zone shot because it's a 90* dogleg right and while I have the power to usually get into the Safe Zone, this hole is equally about power and accuracy off the tee.

I hit a little cut on purpose and hit it well and keep it a little low. However, I hit it a little too far left and that puts me further away from the hole. That's okay, I'm in the fairway.

I hit 6-iron from 190 and I hook it into the sand trap. That's a problem because I'm left with a shot into a downhill sloped green. I hit a decent shot, but because of the downhill slope, it goes about 10 feet bye. Now I'm putting slightly uphill, but it's into a saddle slope and I mis-read it and make bogey.

Here's a tough hole and you have to swallow your pride and realize that bogey is pretty likely. The shot that really cost me was the 6-iron approach shot. In the fairway, gotta hit a shot better than that. (+1)


#5 - 435 yard par-4

This hole is 2 yards longer than #4, but typically it's a tee shot I get into the Safe Zone because it's straight away instead of a sharp dogleg.

I feel comfortable with letting the shaft out on this one just a little more than usual here because it's wide open and the things that can impeded a shot are not that likely for me here. I strike a driver well off the toe, but it winds up okay, about 168 yards to the flag.

I'm in the Safe Zone, but the hole plays longer that it says because of the elevated green. The pin is also tucked off the right behind the greenside bunker on the right. However, the best place to miss is actually right of the flag. It's an uphill chip and an uphill putt. So I decide to take a good 1+ club extra with a 6-iron and fire at the flag. This way if I hit a good shot, I'll likely hit the green or maybe flag it. If I just mis-hit it, I could flag it and should get over the bunker on the right. If I miss right...easy up and down.

Unfortunatley I hit another over-draw 6-iron and it lands on the left side of the green. Was kinda hoping for a better shot at birdie. I then have a downhill putt, but the greens are slow and I 2-putt for par.

Decently played golf hole although the execution was lacking with the toed driver and the over-draw on the 6-iron. (+1)


#6 - 557 yard par-5

Okay, par-5. Sooo.. the goal is usually to hit it long and not worry too much about the rough and to not worry too much about cutting the corner. The problem here is that in all likelihood I won't have a shot at getting there in two because of the water which on a good drive requires a 250 yard carry. I can carry it, but I would need the stars to align. Instead, I'm better off hitting a nice driver, followed by a layup to 70 yards, then a flip wedge and putt.

Here I hit one okay, but I cut it and cut it too much. This leaves me with a lie on a small hill. I then hook one with a 4-iron off the hill into the woods. Now I'm thinking about probably having to pitch one out and then hit a shot on and try and save par.

Instead, I have a shot about 128 yards away from a bad lie, but a clear shot to the green. This is in the Safe Zone, so it's likely the best I'll do is par. I hit a good shot, but it goes a little long, leaving me with a 25 footer that is slightly downhill. I then make the putt for birdie.

Poor execution on the hole outside of the putt saved me. But, I was able to advance the ball on my first 3 shots and it was a case of making a putt we usually would miss most of the time (E)


#7 - 390 yard par-4

Chance to get into the birdie zone here, but the way the fairway is designed, sometimes you can find yourself in the deep rough. Still though, take a decent pass at it and you're likely in the fairway. I like those odds.

And I hit a pretty good driver to 95 yards (295 yard driver) in the fairway. This is a very good opportunity to make birdie here, but obviously there's no guarantee. And the odds of making bogey are slim and double or worse should be out of the equation.

I hit a SW to 3-feet. Great job. Knock in the putt and make my second birdie in a row.

Just plain ole good execution here. Driver was good enough to put me in the birdie zone so I didn't have to worry about the slope of the green or having a makeable miss too much. (-1)


#8 - 181 yard par-3.

No real place to miss here. You can miss a little short, but you'll have a shot up over a hill. Left is a bad place to miss because most of the shots will be to a downhill slope. Right is probably the best place to miss, but nothing to write home about.

Shot in the Danger Zone, so think about hitting it solid and just find the green. I hit it very so-so. Hits about a yard short and rolls down the hill.

Not the hardest chip in the world, but not exactly easy. Want to try and leave myself with an uphill putt. I hit one to about 7 feet with an uphill putt.

I mis-read my AimPoint chart here. That's my fault. I was trying to look at something between 5 and 10 feet and I was looking at 10 and 15 feet. The thing is that even though I missed, I hit the putt where I wanted to and it reacted like the chart says. With downhill putts, the wobble effect makes that harder.

Gotta hit the Danger Zone shots more solid and a mental gaffe hurt me there (E)


#9 - 421 yards par-4.

Typically I shouldn't be in the Danger Zone here. The right side is more open, but it is a longer distance into the green. But a decent swing with a shot directed down the left side should be okay which is what I do, knock it to 145 yards.

The wind is slighly in our face and the lie is downhill. So I take an 8-iron out. Didn't really hit it, but wound up short. May need to re-think the club selection there. Doesn't matter because it's an uphill slope to the pin here. Rule of 12 chip with a 9-iron and kicked in for par.

Good execution on 2 shots (Driver and chip), weak execution on the 2nd shot. But the miss gave way to a pretty makeable up-n-down (E)







3JACK

[pavaveda]

Thanks for doing this. Always good to get some insight into what's going through the mind of a much better player than oneself.

[Richie3Jack]

Apr 15, 2011 14:41:44 GMT -5 pavaveda said:

Thanks for doing this. Always good to get some insight into what's going through the mind of a much better player than oneself.

Thanks.

I couldn't remember all what I was thinking since I played on Wednesday. I think I probably forgot to 'just make good contact and just get it on the green' when I was in the Danger Zone a couple of times. I do remember being conscious of the tough 2nd shot on #6 (uphill lie in the rough on a small hill using a 4-iron to layup with). And remember being in the Birdie Zone on #7.







3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

I'm probably going to play North Shore on Saturday. The strategy off the tee is:

#1 - Driver, hit up on it a little
#2 - 3-wood
#3 - Driver, aim left to avoid water, focus on solid strike and fairway since it's possible to have a Danger Zone approach
#4 - Stock driver
#5- Driver like #3 (little low and left, make good contact), Birdie Zone opportunity here
#7 - Stock Driver
#9 - Stock driver
#10 - Stock driver (Birdie Zone Opportunity)
#11 - Driver, tee it up, par-5
#12 - 3-wood
#13 - stock driver (Birdie Zone Opportunity)
#15 - stock driver
#16 - 4-iron (goofy hole design)
#18 - Stock driver (focus on good contact and find the fairway, possible DZ shot)





3JACK

[jonnygrouville]

All interesting stuff. As ever.

What are the other options beyond 'stock' driver? Do you have an anti-left shot if there is trouble down that side? If so, would be interested to hear what you do...

[Richie3Jack]

Other options besides stock driver.

1. Tee it a little lower and play it about 0.5 to 1 inch further back than normal. Keeps the ball low and a better chance of finding the fairway or not in trouble. Takes about 15-25 yards off in distance, though.

2. Tee it a little higher and move it about 1 inch further forward. Hits up on the ball. Ball more likely to fade, but can add quite a bit of distance.

3. Tee it up super high, move it about 2 inches forward, do not ground the club (ala Nicklaus). Good for holes that are wide open and I can gain major distance this way. Probably likely to hit it about 310 yards instead of 290-ish. And if I really smoke it, probalby closer to 330 yards, although I've hit the occasional stock driver 330 yards.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Kinda funny, the other day Dana Dahlquist sent me a tweet saying he liked my column on strategies and talked about how he figured he could get to -12 on the par-5's in a 4-day tournament which he figured was about the Tour average.

No.

PGA Tour scoring average on par-5's is about 4.69 or thereabouts. That equates to -5 over a 4-day tournament (provided there are 4 par-5's on the course). Top players on par-5's like Bubba Watson are usually on pace to be -8 on par-5's over a 4-day tournament. Worst is usually around -2 to -3.

Scoring average on par-4's is about 4.03 to 4.05. That's on pace to be +1 or +2 thru a 4-day tournament. The top player may get on average -2 for a 4-day tourney on par-4's. Worst player on par-4's, about +6

Par-3's...average is about 3.05. That's about +2 for 4-days. Best player on par-3's may average about -1. Worst player...about +3.

So on average, the scores on a 4 day tournament for a PGA Tour player are about:

Par-4's: +2
Par-5's: -5
Par-3's: +2

Overall: -1

I'm not sure where the idea that 'par-5 scoring average has the greatest correlation to scoring average.'

Perhaps it is the correlation to *actual* scoring average instead of *adjusted* scoring average which factors in how the player is doing that week vs. the field.

As far as strongest to weakest correlations, it goes:

1) Par-4 Scoring Average
2) Par-5 Scoring Average
3) Par-3 Scoring Average

So that really doesn't help us that much.

As far as 'Go For Its', which are considered any time a golfer's second shot on a par-5 is within 30 yards of the edge of the green...I went 6/8 this week which put me at -3. Pumped one into the water on #8 at Stoneybrook East (which still counts as a Go For It) and made bogey. Knocked it on in 2 on #15 at North Shore with a 4-iron and #14 at Stoneybrook with a 3-wood. Wound up birdieing #7 and #15 at North Shore and #11 and #14 at Stoneybrook.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Here's a look at the 'scorecard' for the course my dad and I are playing on Saturday.

#...Yds....Par
1….470….5
2….340….4
3….150….3
4….339….4
5….405….4
6….351….4
7….470….5
8….154….3
9….408….4
10….522….5
11….382….4
12….326….4
13….201….3
14….524….5
15….335….4
16….429….4
17….201….4
18….454….4

I've never played the course before and don't have a layout of the holes.

According to the 'chart' I made showing what is considered 'long' or 'average' or 'short' off the tee for the given course yardage, I would be quite long. 'Long' on a 6,400-6,500 yard course is about 268 yards off the tee.

I think the gameplan here is to bomb-n-gouge when I can. So I'll try to stay away from hazards and O.B at all costs and if I can do that and still hit driver, I will..even if it risks getting into the woods.

The holes I think that will be tough are #13, #16-18. I should have 4 out of 4 in the 'Go For Its' on the par-5's.

I estimate that there are 10 holes that I can easily get into the Birdie Zone. My goal on these holes is *if* I'm in the birdie zone, I want to try and come away with a combination of at least 5 birdes or eagles. That's different from being -5. While Eagles are great, I believe that a good goal for Birdie Zone approaches is to come away with an under par 50% of the time.

But, that is a *goal*, not a guarantee or an expectation.




3JACK