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Post by Richie3Jack on Nov 30, 2011 13:47:58 GMT -5
Here's the projections after week 12.
Biggest rise from last week is the Saints (+0.72)
Biggest fall from last week is the Niners (-1.71)
Green Bay Packers…………...13.82 Houston Texans………………..13.30 Baltimore Ravens……………...11.46 San Francisco 49ers………….11.45 New England Patriots………..11.34 Dallas Cowboys………………...10.59 Detroit Lions……………………...10.55 New Orleans Saints…………...10.43 Tennessee Titans…………….…10.39 Cincinnati Bengals………….....10.10 Chicago Bears………………….....9.48 New York Jets……………………...9.02 Atlanta Falcons…………………....8.74 New York Giants……………….....8.65 Buffalo Bills……………………........8.59 Pittsburgh Steelers…………......8.32 Oakland Raiders………………......7.80 Cleveland Browns……………......7.60 Miami Dolphins……………….........7.08 Philadelphia Eagles………….......6.43 Seattle Seahawks…………...…....5.89 Jacksonville Jaguars……….........5.71 Tampa Bay Buccaneers…….......5.67 Denver Broncos…………….…........5.49 Washington Redskins……..........5.36 Carolina Panthers……………........5.01 Arizona Cardinals…………….........4.89 San Diego Chargers…………........4.87 Kansas City Chiefs…………….......4.49 St. Louis Rams………………….........4.03 Minnesota Vikings…………….........3.59 Indianapolis Colts…………….........2.04
3JACK
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Post by mchepp on Nov 30, 2011 16:46:22 GMT -5
I am a bit confused as to how this works. So this thinks the Raiders are only going to win 1 more game? Or is this a bit more like a power ranking?
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Post by natep on Nov 30, 2011 17:05:05 GMT -5
Projected wins at end of reg season.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Nov 30, 2011 18:43:18 GMT -5
I am a bit confused as to how this works. So this thinks the Raiders are only going to win 1 more game? Or is this a bit more like a power ranking? It's a bit more like a power ranking, but it does project the wins based on historical data. It has nothing to do wth the team's current record. Look at it this way...it's saying that in most years the Raiders are playing like a team that would win about 7.8 games (8-8). I don't have a formula for strength of schedule built into the projection, so that has a lot to do with the discrepancy. But, let's say that the Bengals play the Raiders and they have the same record...I would favor the Bengals because the stats that really matter is what they are stronger at. 3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Dec 1, 2011 6:52:50 GMT -5
So, the Bears win 2.48 of their next 5 games.
Before Cutler got injured, I was pretty confident that the Bears would win at least 5 of their last 6 games in this soft schedule, with the Packers one being the only potential loss.
Since the Cutler got injured, I'm hoping Hanie can win at least 3 of the next 5, but even that doesn't look great.
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Post by secondary on Dec 1, 2011 12:17:48 GMT -5
The Pitt # is the one I am confused on? Just seems to me that they will end up with more wins than that, no matter what the math says!
As for the Bears, the schedule is in our favor. One step at a time though. KC
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 1, 2011 12:42:48 GMT -5
The Pitt # is the one I am confused on? Just seems to me that they will end up with more wins than that, no matter what the math says! As for the Bears, the schedule is in our favor. One step at a time though. KC Over the history in the NFL, Pittsburgh has played more or less like a 8 win team. As far as their stats go, I used some advanced metrics that is proprietary information, but, here's where they rank: offensive points per yard: 24th defensive points per yard: 10th This indicates that their offense has been mediocre while their defense has been pretty good. The special teams is pretty average. Indicates they don't make a lot of big plays in special teams, but probably don't give up big plays on special teams either. Net Adjusted Points Per Yard: 22nd This is because historically offensive points per yard has had a stronger correlation to winning than defensive points per yard. QB Rating: 7th QB Rating Allowed: 9th QB Rating Differential: 8th Thus, they are a really good team in the passing game battle...which is very important in the NFL. Their QB Rating allowed has improved quite a bit recently as well. Turnover Margin: -8 Worst in the NFL right now is -11. They only have 7 INT's on the season and 5 fumble recoveries. Thus, their problem is in forcing turnovers which tends to hamper teams, particularly in the playoffs. Defense also tends to stay on the field longer because it takes longer for them to get the ball back from the opposing team. Points Allowed Ranking: 4th Very good number. Overall, their defense has played well except they can't force turnovers. Had they been able to force their 'normal' amount of turnovers...their projected wins would go way up because it would affect other key metrics. Adjusted Sacks Allowed Ranking: 23rd This is an important metric because: a. It costs field position when your QB gets sacked b. It's an indicator your O-Line can't protect the QB. c. It's an indicator that the QB can't avoid being sacked. d. It influences the likelihood of the QB turning the ball over. e. In influences the likelihood that the QB will get injured. Roethlisberger has always held onto the ball a lot and the Steelers typically give up a lot of sacks with him at QB. However, this is a 'pretty good' year for him here. Although, he is once again hurt. I think the Steelers success depends on Roethlisberger's health and if they can go back to creating the 'normal' amount of turnovers that they usually create. If they can't I see big flaws in their team come postseason. 3JACK
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Post by secondary on Dec 1, 2011 19:34:29 GMT -5
Well thought out as usual Richie, but really at the end of the day I guess it is hard for me to say that the Steelers are going to end THIS season with 8 wins? I understand where you are coming from because I am a baseball nerd and love the #s. I just feel like they will be there come playoff time.
Imagine what the Adjusted Sacks Allowed would look like if it were anyone else besides Ben back there? He isn't the easiest guy to bring down.
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Post by 94monarch on Dec 1, 2011 19:57:54 GMT -5
I understand Richies math here. The formula is not factoring in that they have eight wins already and have Cleveland twice and St. Louis left on the schedule, nor is the turnover margin factoring in they had seven turnovers in one loss at Baltimore. That skews the numbers. Nobody in a sane state would pick Houston with a second backup QB or the Bills or the Bears over the Steelers right now. But thats not what these stats are based on.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 2, 2011 7:42:33 GMT -5
I understand Richies math here. The formula is not factoring in that they have eight wins already and have Cleveland twice and St. Louis left on the schedule, nor is the turnover margin factoring in they had seven turnovers in one loss at Baltimore. That skews the numbers. Nobody in a sane state would pick Houston with a second backup QB or the Bills or the Bears over the Steelers right now. But thats not what these stats are based on. Exactly. I have not looked at the strength of schedule (because my formula doesn't account for that), but the NFC North has teams all with good records which is usually an indicator that the division is playing a weaker schedule. 3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 2, 2011 9:14:59 GMT -5
3JACK owes me a public apology for all of the bad things he's said about the Eagles this year!!! He should be ashamed. There isn't one team with more talent and less wins in the league this year. I still have hope that Andy Reid is fired since the team quit on him.
P.S. Only a true Eagles fan would blame another in defeat! I uphold this tradition with great pride and deflection. Never accept the loss was your problem, never!!!
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 2, 2011 9:19:53 GMT -5
I would just about be shocked if Reid is fired. I think they give him one more go unless the organization doesn't like Vick...which I don't think is the case. If ANYBODY is deserved an apology, it's ME for when BEFORE the season started I stated that there was a great chance the Eagles missed the playoffs because since 1999, only 48% of the division winners made the playoffs the following season. And that the #1 common trait with those division winners who missed the playoffs was an injured QB. And that typically the QB who has an injury history...gets injured again. Like Mike Vick. Despite those facts and historical trends along with solid reasoning, people thought I was NUTS to proclaim the Eagles would miss the playoffs. Give the devil his due on this one...I knocked that thing right out of the park. (although if the Cowboys win the division, they could very well miss the playoffs in 2012 ) 3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 2, 2011 9:26:10 GMT -5
I won't do it and will never apologize to a Cowboys fan!!! Never!!
You were right and I was wrong. I apologize.
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 2, 2011 9:27:17 GMT -5
Go Packers! My new team!
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 2, 2011 9:30:15 GMT -5
On that front...since 1999, the lowest amount of division winners to return to the playoffs the following season is 3. Which has happened on several occasions. This year we could reach a new milestone.
New England should make the playoffs (and win the division) Pittsburgh should make the playoffs.
After that it's quite suspect.
Indy is out.
For all intents and purposes, so is KC.
Same with Philly.
Atlanta is fighting for a spot.
Seattle is most likely gone.
Chicago is fighting for a spot.
So, could we see...for the first time...only 2 division winners return to the playoffs? I think not. I think we'll probably see the NFC playoff teams go: Dallas, New Orleans, Packers, Niner with Atlanta and NYG as the wildcards.
I think Atlanta and NYG have the best combination of Head Coaches and starting QB over the Bears (since Cutler is out) and the Lions.
On the other side, traditionally 4 of the playoff teams in the league each year will have had losing records in the previous season.
So far, it's looking like:
Niners - pretty much in at this point. Houston Dallas
I would still watch out for Denver...although I think the Raiders are the better team. But, I think the Broncos have a better coach and the Raiders are terrible defending the run. Then there's the Titans.
So, still a lot of football to be played and interesting things to come.
3JACK
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