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Post by kamandi on Nov 30, 2012 21:40:44 GMT -5
imo, at other positions, if a team draft a 1st rounder who isn't ready to start of contribute immediately, then the GM didn't properly do his job. Those that first need further development should be taken in a later round.
I think what's most important to a rookie QB is the infrastructure the team builds around him ... a good OL, a good RB, a dependable WR or TE, and a really good OC that doesn't try to make him do too much too soon. That was the recipe for Ryan, Flacco, Rivers, and even Sanchez, and that's why they had so much success early on.
The problem for Sanchez is that the skills positions didn't continue to upgrade. Ryan started with Turner and White, then they added Gonzales, then Jones, so that every season, he had more dependable options as he was asked to do more. Sanchez' WRs and RBs suck, and his TE isn't talented enough to make up for that. They wanted Sanchez to do more with less. That's the fault of the GMs and the coaches.
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Post by kamandi on Dec 26, 2012 6:48:43 GMT -5
Wow, what a season!
The Bears take a nosedive, the Vikings are in contention, the Redskins and the Cowboys are fighting for the division title, the Colts are back to prominence, and the Seahawks quietly got themselves into the playoffs, and have a chance to win the division.
The rookie QBs RGIII, Luck, and Wilson have played amazing; the maturity they have is uncanny. I don't really pay attention to RBs, but Alfred Morris came out of nowhere to become one of the best RBs in the league.
I thought Kaepernick was just the wildcat QB, but as consistent as Alex Smith was, it's obvious that Kaepernick could turn into one of the best QBs in the league. Jim Harbaugh is a true QB whisperer.
I'm surprised at how bad the Lions have been; they are one of the most talented teams in the league, but they find ways to lose.
I used to think the Texans were the most complete team, but they've failed badly against the best, and I'm thinking the injury to Cushing really weakened their defense.
Right now, with Kaepernick at QB, and the way Crabtree's been playing, I think the 49ers are the most solid team all around. I'd pick them to face the Pats in the Super Bowl.
Matt Ryan has taken a huge leap in his development. He used to be very risk averse, but now, he's aggressive, while still protecting the ball. For this season, I'd only rate Rodgers, Brady, and Peyton ahead of him.
While the popular vote would probably be Luck for ROTY, I'd pick RGIII. Very few seasoned veterans can execute as cleanly during an entire game, and even less during crunch time. He runs the offense, makes big plays, and takes care of the ball; often, it's his teammates (save for Morris) who aren't able to match his performance.
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Post by mchepp on Dec 26, 2012 9:55:36 GMT -5
You are much more optimistic on Kaepernick than I am. While he does have a higher ceiling than Alex, I feel when watching him next to a Russell Wilson he doesn't stack up that well. Especially in the game against the Seahawks he looked very tentative and on occasion makes some bad decisions.
I think the 49ers will make an early exit because they don't have enough quality at the QB position and key injuries. Justin Smith is a huge loss and the secondary is just not the same. Their opponent may be the Vikings who beat them earlier in the season, a bad match up for the 49ers.
I think the the Super Bowl will be Broncos vs Falcons. I have no basis for my guess, just a feeling.
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Post by kamandi on Dec 26, 2012 14:52:17 GMT -5
Wilson is way more experienced at the position than Kaepernick; it's only with the 49ers that Kaepernick started taking snaps under center.
Also, this was his 1st time playing at the very loud Seahawks stadium, so he wasn't properly prepared to call plays.
Wilson is a very heady QB, but his height limits his throwin lanes down the middle. He often has to move in ordwr to create angles for his passes.
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 26, 2012 19:10:24 GMT -5
The Seahawks had a great draft this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost a road game.
I like your football perspective Kamandi.
I could see Broncos vs. Falcons as well. Why not? I could also see Patriots vs. Green Bay. They know how to win in the playoffs which is very important IMO.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 27, 2012 8:57:11 GMT -5
Sanchez blows, period. The skill positions were developed. They had Shonn Green when he was in his prime and then added LT2 to help with passing downs. Santonio Holmes, jerk that he may be, was an excellent WR. They also brought in Keller who I think is a good tight end.
The issue with Sanchez is that he had very little college experience. He only had 16 games as a starter at USC.
To me, it's just like the entire 'Talent Code' perspective. I'm not saying he has to log in 10,000 hours in order to be a great QB. But, with that little experience in college it's difficult to move into the pros right away. They made Sanchez the starter as a rookie because they didn't have anybody else at QB and they paid the price in the end.
I'm personally not overly worried if a 1st round pick, regardless of position, doesn't contribute their rookie year. Polamalu didn't really contribute his rookie year. Same with Darren Woodson (ironically, another safety).
Part of the issue with rookies contributing is that it typically means you have a lousy team. So if you have a good team, the rookies are less apt to contribute. But for first rounders, if they are not contributing early on their second season, they are likely a bust.
3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Dec 28, 2012 4:35:49 GMT -5
The Seahawks had a great draft this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost a road game. I like your football perspective Kamandi. I could see Broncos vs. Falcons as well. Why not? I could also see Patriots vs. Green Bay. They know how to win in the playoffs which is very important IMO. Thanks, man. That Broncos team is really solid. The timing and fit is perfect. Elway came in and knew he had to replace Tebow, despite success in the playoffs and Tebow's tremendous fan support, and Peyton gave him the perfect opportunity. Fox and McCoy are nowhere near the offensive genius McDaniels is, but they had what McDaniels lacked ... wisdom to know how to adapt a team to it's players' strengths. The young offensive players are learning the right way under Peyton, and for Peyton's sake, there is no one better in the league to protect his blindside than Clady. The Broncos' focus on the run game also relieves pressure off of Peyton. The first bright move Bowlen made since his snafu hiring of McDaniels was hiring Elway, and it's paying dividends. I'm not sure if the Broncos are ready yet, as they have been blown out by high powered offenses, but I could see them having a stranglehold on the division for the next few years. Peyton just knows how to win.
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Post by kamandi on Dec 28, 2012 4:38:55 GMT -5
Sanchez blows, period. The skill positions were developed. They had Shonn Green when he was in his prime and then added LT2 to help with passing downs. Santonio Holmes, jerk that he may be, was an excellent WR. They also brought in Keller who I think is a good tight end. The issue with Sanchez is that he had very little college experience. He only had 16 games as a starter at USC. To me, it's just like the entire 'Talent Code' perspective. I'm not saying he has to log in 10,000 hours in order to be a great QB. But, with that little experience in college it's difficult to move into the pros right away. They made Sanchez the starter as a rookie because they didn't have anybody else at QB and they paid the price in the end. I'm personally not overly worried if a 1st round pick, regardless of position, doesn't contribute their rookie year. Polamalu didn't really contribute his rookie year. Same with Darren Woodson (ironically, another safety). Part of the issue with rookies contributing is that it typically means you have a lousy team. So if you have a good team, the rookies are less apt to contribute. But for first rounders, if they are not contributing early on their second season, they are likely a bust. 3JACK Do you think the Jets change their OC, or even their HC, next season? They need a fresh direction on offense.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 28, 2012 8:28:15 GMT -5
I think Rex Ryan is a good HC. The guy took a terrible franchise and went to 2 AFC Championship games, then a 11-5 season. All with Mark Sanchez. And this will be his first losing season as HC. I think the Jets would be idiotic to let him go.
They need a new GM. Outside of Revis, their drafts haven't really produced much. They have been getting more out of FA than anything.
I think Sparano is a good coach. At least he was in Dallas. However, I think he may too infatuated with The Wildcat. I think the Wildcat can still work, but you more or less need somebody like Ronnie Brown to run it. If you try to do it with a QB, he'll get killed.
Even though the Redskins don't run the Wildcat, I question how long RGIII will survive at this rate. The game that was really telling was the game he didn't get injured in...Dallas on Thanksgiving. He took some brutal shots.
But if he's taking brutal shots, I can't see the Wildcat being better. And I think Sparano is too hung up on it.
I think the Jets should seek out an O-Coordinator who has a good history with young QB's. I think Cam Cameron would be a good fit. However, I can see the NY media talking about how stupid the Jets are to take former Dolphins coaches to run their offense.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 28, 2012 10:43:51 GMT -5
If you can't draft well your team is sunk (the Patriots might be an exception - they can take anyone and make it work). The Giants won the SB one year with six rookies making key contributions. Seattle has four rookies making key contributions right now. I wonder how much luck is involved in the draft. All of these GMs are intelligent people and know a ton about football and the various schemes in place and yet there's way more busts that successful picks. It must be maddening to be a GM. Throw in injuries and it makes the job even more maddening. The Jets GM needs to go. Rex is a great coach, he just needs more depth and better talent. Is Tom Brady that good? If not, then Bill B is that great of a head coach for all of the wins each year with slightly above average talent (on the surface).
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 28, 2012 11:05:29 GMT -5
Tom Brady is phenomenal. They should be asking 'is Bill Belichick really that good?' Nobody is a better decision maker than Brady and he's an incredibly smart player.
3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Dec 30, 2012 0:24:09 GMT -5
Tom Brady is phenomenal. They should be asking 'is Bill Belichick really that good?' Nobody is a better decision maker than Brady and he's an incredibly smart player. 3JACK Brady is that good, and Bellichick helped make Brady that good. Brady's main strength is trusting and working a system to perfection, and Bellichick has always designed systems for his players, most specially Brady, to flourish. In the Super Bowl winning seasons, the offense was pure game management. Rely on the defense, and don't turn the ball over. Run the ball and make safe, efficient passes. Where Brady really skyrocketed in his QB development was in 2007, when Bellichick really opened up the offense with Moss and Welker, and Brady was really attacking different parts of the field aggressively, similar to how Matt Ryan is finally doing that this season. This is when Bellichick turned the Pats into an attacking, dominating offense, not a consistent, game managing offense, like the Falcons have been the previous seasons. After they let go of Moss, their offense underwent another change, where they went quick passing to targets who can make yards after catch, like the big Gronk, or the quicker Welker, Hernandez. The weakness was that they lost their deep threat. Then, they added some deep threat targets, like Lloyd, Branch, etc., to be able to attack the whole field again. At the same time, they added elements of the Oregon blur offense, and used unknowns who had a low center of gravity, and were very quick - Edelmans and Woodheads - to have a potent rushing offense again. Brady's executed all these offenses perfectly, but at the same time, it was Bellichick who installed the systems, and whether intentionally or not, it was at times when Brady was ready for them. Imagine Brady trying to run the offense they're running now, during their Super Bowl seasons? I doubt he would've been able to do that at that point of his development.
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Post by kamandi on Dec 30, 2012 0:36:01 GMT -5
Just as an addition to Belichick's genius ....
You look at Brady as a QB; he's never had a strong arm, he's never been very mobile, and he doesn't have a Roethlisberger build. Immediately, Bellichick knew the importance of giving Brady a clean pocket, and having him get rid of the ball early. The types of passes Brady throws are never the outs that need great velocity; they're usually middle of the field, fades, back shoulder; some of his deep throws to Moss in '07 looked like punts, but Brady knew how to use the size matchup, just like he's doing with Gronk.
Belichick's never been afraid to take risks on defense either. He blew up his 3-4 for a 4-3 ... the overall results had been usually ugly though, hehe. During 2011's pass happy season, his defense allowed a lot of yards, but not that many points. This season, I believe they are really good at turnovers and limiting points.
Brady will go down as one of the best QBs ever, but Belichick is a genius. imo, Brady is like Montana, in that without their HCs to bring them along properly, they would not be as great with their base talent level they entered the NFL with.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 30, 2012 10:42:29 GMT -5
I disagree with a lot of this. A family friend of ours used to work for the Jets front office during the Parcells and Belichick years and his opinion of Belichick is not very flattering. He likes Parcells, although he said when they lost everybody from the janitors were walking on egg shells. Another friend of mine writes for the Associated Press and at one time was working in Cleveland during the Belichick era. So I believe I have a good couple of sources of Belichick and who he is.
Belichick is a sub-.500 coach without Brady. Nobody in Cleveland perceived him as a genius. Although he would let people in the Browns organization and media know how much of a genius he was. The same when he went to the Jets.
There's a book written by Dave Halberstram on Belichick and he discusses one play where Belichick wanted to blitz and Parcells didn't. Belichick blitzed and it worked and according to Belichick, Parcells ripped him in the middle of the game about being a genius. According to Belichick, it was for 'no reason.' But, what Belichick and Halberstam don't talk about is how Belichick would go around the Jets front offices and tell everybody how his defense and playcalling won the game, how much of a genius he was and it was readily apparent he was selling out Parcells to the media. Parcells being Parcells...knows everything that is going on and knew what Belichick was doing. So he decided to wait and rip him to shreds in the middle of the game while all of the other assistant coaches could hear him.
Belichick's defense has been a joke. Coincidentally, this has come during the time that SpyGate was revealed. There were also allegations that the Patriots would fool with the radio signals at Foxboro.
I also don't see the innovation from Belichick. The real geniuses of football to me are the guys like Walsh, who created his style fo the West Coast Offense, Landry with his offensive and defensive schemes and ideas, Coryell/Zampese with their offensive scheme, Buddy Ryan, Dick Lebeau, Tony Dungy, etc with their defensive schemes.
At the risk of sounding biased, the only real genius I can think of in football was Landry because he innovated so much from an offensive and defensive standpoint along with scouting teams and drafting players. The others were usually geniuses in one part of the game.
Also, Brady has a very strong arm. He didn't quite start off that way, but as he got stronger he has developed one of the stronger arms in the league. You can't throw out-routes as well as Brady does without superb arm strength. He does pretty much everything well, although his actual throwing accuracy is about average. KC Joyner's research proves this. The reason why he completes such a high percentage of passes is that he is such an incredible decision maker that he's often throwing to wide open receivers.
Where I give Belichick credit is that he saw a way to cheat to gain a serious advantage. That doesn't say much about the man and personally I would prefer my team have nothing to do with it. But, the majority of Pats fans will find a way to spin that in their favor.
But the real key is that Belichick understands that you have to make enough changes in the NFL each year to stay successful. I believe that if the Cowboys were cheating thru SpyGate, they would have gotten big-headed on their success and think that *they* were the reason for their success alone.
Instead, Belichick understood that you can use your success to your advantage. The NFL is a copycat league and that is often more bad than good. Your team sucks? Then go and get a coach from the team that is winning.
That doesn't work?
Go get players from that winning team.
Belichick was able to dupe teams into thinking that 'The Patriots Way' was all that encompassed being successful in the NFL.
Lastly, the AFC East is arguably the worst division in football. And no division has had less quality QB's developed than the AFC East.
Outside of Brady, the best AFC East QB over the past 10 years has been...Chad Pennington.
Over that time, we've seen them have QB's like:
Cleo Lemon Gus Frerotte Joey Harrington Matt Moore AJ Feeley Ryan Fitzpatrick Trent Edwards JP Losman Kelly Holcomb Drew Bledsoe Mark Sanchez Brett Favre (1-year) Kellen Clemens Brooks Bollinger
Given all of these things, there is no doubt in my mind that Tom Coughlin is a much better coach than Brady. He plays in the toughest division in football over the past 10 years (look at the records, it's absolutely true) and has won 2-Super Bowls with a good, but streaky QB.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 30, 2012 15:06:24 GMT -5
Good analysis Richie. I think Belichick was smart in figuring out that you must blow teams out now and not let off their throats when up by 21. Your points indicate why others cannot make his model work in the NFL. (Bill O'Brien might be an exception but he's a college coach). His defenses suck.
Now that fantasy football is done, I'm back hating the Cowboys and loving that feeling. RGIII baby!!!!!
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