Post by Richie3Jack on Jul 22, 2013 13:00:36 GMT -5
This is for the 2013 season. They base this purely off of statistical formulas and algorithms they have combined with historical trends and data.
AFC East
New England 11-5
NY Jets 8-8
Buffalo 7-9
Miami 6-10
AFC North
Baltimore 10-6
Cincinnati 9-7
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cleveland 7-9
AFC South
Houston 9-7
Indianapolis 8-8
Tennessee 6-10
Jacksonville 6-10
AFC West
Denver 10-6
San Diego 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 6-10
NFC East
Washington 10-6
NY Giants 8-8
Philadelphia 8-8
Dallas 7-9
NFC North
Green Bay 10-6
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 6-10
NFC South
Carolina 10-6
New Orleans 9-7
Tampa Bay 8-8
Atlanta 8-8
NFC West
Seattle 10-6
San Francisco 10-6
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 6-10
I will post my forecast when the preseason is done (trying to wade out the injuries and such).
The more I read FO.com's work, I think they place too much of an emphasis on scheduling. Strength of schedule is hard to project because teams tend to progress or regress each year instead of merely staying the same. So a team that appears to have an easy schedule can end up with a very difficult schedule. I know FO.com bases it on their metrics and Pythagorean theorem calculated victories, but the fact remains that with the volatility in the league, strength of schedule is still difficult to forecast.
Part of what stands out here is that they have 7 of the division winners returning to the playoffs (only the Falcons are projected to not make the playoffs). Last year was the first time since 2002 (when the league went to 8 divisions) that more than 5 of the division winners returned to the playoffs in the following year. My guess is that it will be 5 of the division winners this year.
They also only have 2 team (New Orleans & Carolina) with a losing record in 2012 making the playoffs in 2013. That's just not going to happen. I project 5 will make it this year as well.
With that said, I do use FO.com as a help with my projections because they are usually quite good.
3JACK
AFC East
New England 11-5
NY Jets 8-8
Buffalo 7-9
Miami 6-10
AFC North
Baltimore 10-6
Cincinnati 9-7
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cleveland 7-9
AFC South
Houston 9-7
Indianapolis 8-8
Tennessee 6-10
Jacksonville 6-10
AFC West
Denver 10-6
San Diego 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 6-10
NFC East
Washington 10-6
NY Giants 8-8
Philadelphia 8-8
Dallas 7-9
NFC North
Green Bay 10-6
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 6-10
NFC South
Carolina 10-6
New Orleans 9-7
Tampa Bay 8-8
Atlanta 8-8
NFC West
Seattle 10-6
San Francisco 10-6
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 6-10
I will post my forecast when the preseason is done (trying to wade out the injuries and such).
The more I read FO.com's work, I think they place too much of an emphasis on scheduling. Strength of schedule is hard to project because teams tend to progress or regress each year instead of merely staying the same. So a team that appears to have an easy schedule can end up with a very difficult schedule. I know FO.com bases it on their metrics and Pythagorean theorem calculated victories, but the fact remains that with the volatility in the league, strength of schedule is still difficult to forecast.
Part of what stands out here is that they have 7 of the division winners returning to the playoffs (only the Falcons are projected to not make the playoffs). Last year was the first time since 2002 (when the league went to 8 divisions) that more than 5 of the division winners returned to the playoffs in the following year. My guess is that it will be 5 of the division winners this year.
They also only have 2 team (New Orleans & Carolina) with a losing record in 2012 making the playoffs in 2013. That's just not going to happen. I project 5 will make it this year as well.
With that said, I do use FO.com as a help with my projections because they are usually quite good.
3JACK