Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 5, 2013 11:55:53 GMT -5
Over the past several years I started to research the NFL and found that the league almost operates more like a machine than anything else. There are certain amounts of ‘good teams’, certain amounts of ‘bad teams’, then the teams that are somewhere between and finally the 2 teams that reach the zenith in the Super Bowl. These teams are constantly progressing and regressing each year. Good teams can easily become bad teams in just one year and vice versa. I started to dub this the ‘system of parity.’
And it is really amazing how we often forget what the perception of each NFL team is before the season starts. For example, the Seahawks were considered a mediocre team going into the 2012 season. They had to rely on a 3rd round, undersized rookie to play QB. And within a year they are one of the Super Bowl favorites. I am certain that some of the predictions I will make here will baffle people, but it’s important to keep in mind the Seahawks of the world (whom I predicted to make the playoffs last year).
I have found one of the best ways to forecast the league is to start off with examining the teams with losing records in the prior season. These are ‘bad teams.’ And each and every year these ‘bad teams’ will turn into ‘good teams’ and make the playoffs. In fact, since 1999 roughly 30% of the teams that have had losing records have made the playoffs the following season. Thus, the more teams with losing records means that the following year there will more of those teams in the playoffs.
For instance, in 2011 there were only 12 teams with losing records. But four of those teams (Vikings, Lions, Colts and Seahawks) made the playoffs in 2012.
In 2012 there were 16 teams with losing records which is a relatively high amount of losing records teams in a season:
With that, it forecasts to 5 of those teams making the playoffs in 2013. However, I need to explain a bit of the wackiness that went on in the AFC last season, first.
Where I really started to see the ‘system of parity’ in my research was when I started to examine Divisional Winners. Since 1999, only 48% of the teams that won their Division made the playoffs the following year.
Re-read that again.
It’s saying that if a team wins their division they are more likely to MISS the playoffs the following year than they are to make the playoffs the following season.
I think the slightly more difficult non-division schedule, the weaker draft status and other teams in the division ‘gunning for them’ plays a big part in the downfall of the division winners. Either way, it’s certainly a definitive trend in the league.
Here were the 2012 Division Winners:
There are a couple of things to keep in mind with Division Winners.
1. The more teams with losing records in the prior year tends to mean that there will be more Division Winners *returning* to the playoffs the following season.
2. Since 1999, there has only been 1 season where more than 5 of the Division Winners returned to the playoffs the following year. And that was last year.
In 2012, 6 of the 8 division winners from 2011 returned to the playoffs. The NFC was fairly ‘normal’ with only the Packers and the Niners returning to the playoffs. But in the AFC, not only did all 4 of the 2011 division winners return to the playoffs, but they also won their division again.
With a weak Quarterback draft class, I tend to believe that we will still see a lopsided balance of power in the AFC while the NFC will continue to follow the same trends.
Now, we can start to filter down which teams will make the playoffs in 2013. And in order to do that, we need to understand these common trends about the league:
The NFL is a Quarterback driven league
I think most fans understand this, but it often gets overlooked when projecting a team’s success. The ‘bad teams’ that turn into ‘good teams’ usually do it by either having a veteran QB that is at least fairly effective or the growing trend of having a rookie QB that takes the league by surprise.
The Division winners that go to the playoffs the following year will also need a good QB and one that does not get injured. That is a large reason why the Patriots and Colts were able to win their division and continue to go to the playoffs; the Pats have Tom Brady and the Colts had Peyton Manning and for the most part, they never got injured.
Familiarity is very important in the league
All of the data I have examined shows that the league takes about 1 full year to catch up to new players, coaches and schemes. In fact, a new coordinator that calls plays for basically the same team and the same scheme is often enough to throw off the league for about one full year.
Head Coaches do matter, but are much less important than the Quarterback
You will see this with just about any ‘good’ head coach. If they don’t have a Quarterback or their QB gets injured, they are in trouble. They can still field a competitive team and in large part their job is to develop a team and an environment where the QB can succeed. But, if they don’t have the QB they are doomed to, at best, having short term success.
The league craps on 2nd year starting QB’s that started most of their rookie year.
Just take a look at the 2nd seasons of QB’s like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Matt Stafford, Christian Ponder, Sam Bradford, etc. However, this seemingly does not apply as much to QB’s that sit out their first year. Even if they are in their 2nd year as a *starter* (3rd year in the league), it does not usually apply to them.
Keeping these points in mind, I will start off with the teams with losing records in 2012 along with their projected starting QB and Head Coach:
Typically, I would forecast that 5 of these 16 teams would make the playoffs in 2013. However, with the AFC being ‘out-of-whack’, I see a real issue with more than 1 of the AFC losing teams making the playoffs in 2013. And I doubt that more than 3 of the NFC teams will make the playoffs.
So, instead of forecasting 5 teams making the playoffs here…I will go with 4.
I eliminated the Dolphins due the ‘2nd year Starting QB syndrome.’ I liked Buffalo’s chances until Manuel got hurt. Cleveland is still Cleveland. The Jaguars I think are actually interesting since they are employing a Moneyball approach, but I don’t think it makes up for their dearth of talent. The Titans look awful and Jake Locker doesn’t impress me. The Raiders look awful. I tend to think that I will end up waiting forever for Phillip Rivers to turn it around. Meanwhile, the Chiefs play in a bad division (sans Denver) and have a solid, veteran QB in Alex Smith who comes from a different conference and a new head coach with a track record (also from a different conference) in Andy Reid.
The NFC is much more difficult to figure with the losing teams fielding fairly decent to very good QB’s. The weakest links are Freeman and Palmer, so I took them out easily. From there, I purely looked at the teams with the best QB-Head Coach combos. That being said, the Eagles may do something this year with Vick (scrambling QB’s often make bad teams look better than they are and good teams look worse than they are). The same could go for the Panthers.
This leads me now to the Division Winners:
Given the amount of teams with losing records and the AFC being ‘out-of-whack’, I predict that 5 of the 8 division winners will return to the playoffs.
The difficulty here is that you have a lot of the superior QB’s that are questionable with their health (Brady and Manning – age, Rodgers for previous concussion history, Kaepernick for scheme). The lesser QB’s that seem more likely to stay healthy tend to play in more difficult divisions.
My forecast has these division winners returning to the playoffs in 2013:
The Ravens play in a tough division and had to unload a lot of key pieces on their roster. The Redskins are the prototypical team to win the division and miss the playoffs the following year. They have a 2nd year QB, they were a bad team before the 2nd year QB played for them last year and they play in a tough division. And they also use the read-option which I believe will be figured out schematically by teams (think heavy amounts of blitzing) midway thru the year. Atlanta played a soft schedule last year and plays in a good division.
Here is the tally of forecasted playoff teams so far:
That leaves us with the following teams that either went to the playoffs as wildcard or went .500+ and did not make the playoffs. I will also take out any team that already has 2 teams forecasted to make the playoffs (yes, 3 teams from the same division can make the playoffs, it’s just rare):
There are 2 spots left in the AFC, but I will put Cincy and Pittsburgh in those spots as I feel that Andrew Luck will probably fall to the ‘2nd Year QB Syndrome.’ Plus, the Colts were not very good in any key performance metric last year.
We can also eliminate Chicago, Minnesota and Seattle from contention given they have 2 other teams in their division forecasted to make the playoffs. And for Seattle fans, they have a ‘double whammy’ of having a 2nd year QB and playing in an offense that I believe will be figured out soon. Plus, with all of the suspensions, it is making their chances look worse.
Thus, we come down to the Giants and the Cowboys for the final spot. While I can be a blind homer, I will still give the last spot to the Cowboys. They have altered their defense and now have Bill Callahan calling plays on offense. They have a high caliber QB and actually play a fairly easier schedule than the G-Men.
Here are my final projected records:
Super Bowl: San Francisco 31 Denver 21
Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brady (New England)
Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt (Houston)
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid (Kansas City)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Christine Michael (Seattle)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Eric Reid (San Francisco)
Coach Firings: Rex Ryan (NY Jets), Mike Munchak (Tennessee), Dennis Allen (Oakland), Leslie Frazier (Minnesota), Greg Schiano (Tampa Bay)
3JACK