Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 27, 2013 12:21:42 GMT -5
One of my clients recently sent me over a 'year in review' that ShotLink sends to each of the Tour players. It gives a run down of the metrics recorded and who ranked the best.
A lot of it is rather innocuous in nature. But, they did provide some interesting information such as the amount of double bogeys and worse made on Tour last year.
Here's the breakdown of the percentage of scores on holes last year:
Double Eagle: 0.0007%
Eagle: 0.43%
Birdie: 18.69%
Par: 62.78%
Bogey: 15.86%
Double Bogey: 1.94%
Triple: 0.25%
Quadruple: 0.04%
5+ over: 0.01%
6+ over: 0.0025%
7+ over: 0.0007%
This year, Bogey Rate had a super strong correlation (almost at 1:1 relationship) to Adjusted Scoring Average on Tour. It's usually a little less important than Par-4 Scoring Average in terms of how successful the player will be on Tour.
I think mathematically, we start to see why. The odds of making double bogey or worse are significant *enough* compared to making eagle or double eagle. So if you come away with a double bogey, now you have to make 2 birdies in order to break even.
Soooooo.....
The Tour average for birdies made per round is 3.4
The Tour average for bogeys (+1 over par) is 2.9
The Tour average is 1 double bogey made for every 51.5 holes played.
So if a Tour player makes a double bogey, now they have only 17 holes to 'get it back.' But, their likelihood of making a birdie, par or bogey on the following 17 holes is the same.
Thus, our 'typical' round on Tour consists of the player going about -0.5 under par. But when they finally make that double bogey, they are now likely to go +1 over par for the round. And the more doubles you make, the more it really puts a player behind the 8-ball.
The other part of this is simply pure performance. Golfers who avoid bogeys and double bogeys usually do so by getting their birdie shot closer to the hole. Of course, it helps if the golfer can scramble and putt well. But, you're just not going to make many bogeys if you're constantly sticking your birdie shots inside 20 feet, regardless of how poorly you putt the ball.
3JACK
A lot of it is rather innocuous in nature. But, they did provide some interesting information such as the amount of double bogeys and worse made on Tour last year.
Here's the breakdown of the percentage of scores on holes last year:
Double Eagle: 0.0007%
Eagle: 0.43%
Birdie: 18.69%
Par: 62.78%
Bogey: 15.86%
Double Bogey: 1.94%
Triple: 0.25%
Quadruple: 0.04%
5+ over: 0.01%
6+ over: 0.0025%
7+ over: 0.0007%
This year, Bogey Rate had a super strong correlation (almost at 1:1 relationship) to Adjusted Scoring Average on Tour. It's usually a little less important than Par-4 Scoring Average in terms of how successful the player will be on Tour.
I think mathematically, we start to see why. The odds of making double bogey or worse are significant *enough* compared to making eagle or double eagle. So if you come away with a double bogey, now you have to make 2 birdies in order to break even.
Soooooo.....
The Tour average for birdies made per round is 3.4
The Tour average for bogeys (+1 over par) is 2.9
The Tour average is 1 double bogey made for every 51.5 holes played.
So if a Tour player makes a double bogey, now they have only 17 holes to 'get it back.' But, their likelihood of making a birdie, par or bogey on the following 17 holes is the same.
Thus, our 'typical' round on Tour consists of the player going about -0.5 under par. But when they finally make that double bogey, they are now likely to go +1 over par for the round. And the more doubles you make, the more it really puts a player behind the 8-ball.
The other part of this is simply pure performance. Golfers who avoid bogeys and double bogeys usually do so by getting their birdie shot closer to the hole. Of course, it helps if the golfer can scramble and putt well. But, you're just not going to make many bogeys if you're constantly sticking your birdie shots inside 20 feet, regardless of how poorly you putt the ball.
3JACK