Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 4, 2013 10:15:02 GMT -5
Below are the project wins since each team has played 12 games this season (3/4 of the regular season). Projected wins are based solely on certain key performance metrics and how they would forecast to *season ending* win totals. This is based on historical trends dating back to 2000.
1. Seattle Seahawks: 12.53
2. New Orleans Saints: 11.61
3. Denver Broncos: 11.50
4. San Francisco 49ers: 11.23
5. Kansas City Chiefs: 11.17
6. New England Patriots: 10.99
7. Cincinnati Bengals: 10.62
8. Carolina Panthers: 10.60
9. Dallas Cowboys: 10.45
10. Chicago Bears: 9.74
11. Tennessee Titans: 9.39
12. Indianapolis Colts: 9.35
13. San Diego Chargers: 8.83
14. St. Louis Rams: 8.76
15. Arizona Cardinals: 8.71
16. Detroit Lions: 8.53
17. Miami Dolphins: 8.52
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.50
19. Philadelphia Eagles: 8.44
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.89
21. Baltimore Ravens: 7.66
22. Buffalo Bills: 7.55
23. Green Bay Packers: 6.48
24. Atlanta Falcons: 5.85
25. Cleveland Browns: 5.72
26. New York Giants: 5.58
27. Houston Texans: 5.03
28. Minnesota Vikings: 4.75
29. Oakland Raiders: 4.18
30. Washington Redskins: 3.97
31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.77
32. New York Jets: 1.78
Going back to my preseason predictions, I had 4 of the 16 teams with losing records in 2012 to make the playoffs:
New Orleans (t-1st in Division, projected 11.61 wins)
Detroit (1st in Division, 8.53 projected wins)
St. Louis (last in Division, 8.76 projected wins)
Kansas City (2nd in Division, 11.17 projected wins)
I typically would have projected 5 of the losing teams to make the playoffs because there were 16 teams with losing records. But since the AFC was so ‘out-of-whack’ last year I only projected 4 teams. I think New Orleans and KC are in. I think Detroit will make it as well since the Vikings have no chance and both Cutler and Rodgers are hurt.
That would leave us with Carolina likely making it. Other than that, we have the Eagles and Dolphins both fighting for a playoff spot. So would could see 5 teams, but there’s still a chance that my forecasting of only 4 of these teams making the playoffs was correct. Mostly because…the AFC is still out-of-whack.
I had 5 of the division winners making the playoffs again:
New England (1st in division, projected 10.99 wins)
Houston (last in division, 5.03 projected wins)
Denver (1st in division, 11.50 projected wins)
Green Bay (3rd in division, 6.48 projected wins)
San Francisco (2nd in division, 11.23 projected wins)
That also leaves me with these 3 division winners that I did not project to make the playoffs in 2013:
Baltimore (2nd in division, 7.66 projected wins)
Washington (last in division 3.97 projected wins)
Atlanta (3rd in division, 5.85 projected wins)
Thus far, I’ve done a decent job with the projections. There were a few monkey wrenches here. I didn’t expect Houston to fall off so badly. Although I predicted this last year, so I was a year off. Aaron Rodgers getting hurt didn’t help matters. And while I projected the Seahawks to go 9-7, I didn’t think Russell Wilson could continue to play on this level.
TEAMS TO WATCH OUT FOR
Dallas – The only thing holding them back is their horrid pass defense. But if they can get some players healthy (Ware, Lee, Wilcox, etc) they have some excellent metrics. They do a great job of protecting the football and forcing turnovers. This is very much like a Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer type of strategy. Unfortunately, I question how successful it will be in the postseason. And they also have the streaking Eagles to worry about. Their schedule is a bit tricky because they face the Bears on MNF with Josh McCown, but it’s a road game in December. Then it’s off to face the Packers who may not have Aaron Rodgers. And then it’s at Washington (always a tough place for the Cowboys to play) and then at home at the Eagles. They could very well come away with the division and then beat a couple of teams because they can win the turnover battle and then lose in the NFC Championship Game.
New England – Easy schedule since their division is still a joke. And their only real issue has been, believe it or not, their passing offense. They do give up a lot on the run, but in the grand scheme of things that’s not overly important. They will likely end up being a #2 seed and get easy games at Foxboro.
Cincinnati – I think they are the team that could give both New England and Denver fits. Their defense and running games are pretty strong, but they cannot quite get to that top tier level in their passing game.
3JACK
1. Seattle Seahawks: 12.53
2. New Orleans Saints: 11.61
3. Denver Broncos: 11.50
4. San Francisco 49ers: 11.23
5. Kansas City Chiefs: 11.17
6. New England Patriots: 10.99
7. Cincinnati Bengals: 10.62
8. Carolina Panthers: 10.60
9. Dallas Cowboys: 10.45
10. Chicago Bears: 9.74
11. Tennessee Titans: 9.39
12. Indianapolis Colts: 9.35
13. San Diego Chargers: 8.83
14. St. Louis Rams: 8.76
15. Arizona Cardinals: 8.71
16. Detroit Lions: 8.53
17. Miami Dolphins: 8.52
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.50
19. Philadelphia Eagles: 8.44
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.89
21. Baltimore Ravens: 7.66
22. Buffalo Bills: 7.55
23. Green Bay Packers: 6.48
24. Atlanta Falcons: 5.85
25. Cleveland Browns: 5.72
26. New York Giants: 5.58
27. Houston Texans: 5.03
28. Minnesota Vikings: 4.75
29. Oakland Raiders: 4.18
30. Washington Redskins: 3.97
31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.77
32. New York Jets: 1.78
Going back to my preseason predictions, I had 4 of the 16 teams with losing records in 2012 to make the playoffs:
New Orleans (t-1st in Division, projected 11.61 wins)
Detroit (1st in Division, 8.53 projected wins)
St. Louis (last in Division, 8.76 projected wins)
Kansas City (2nd in Division, 11.17 projected wins)
I typically would have projected 5 of the losing teams to make the playoffs because there were 16 teams with losing records. But since the AFC was so ‘out-of-whack’ last year I only projected 4 teams. I think New Orleans and KC are in. I think Detroit will make it as well since the Vikings have no chance and both Cutler and Rodgers are hurt.
That would leave us with Carolina likely making it. Other than that, we have the Eagles and Dolphins both fighting for a playoff spot. So would could see 5 teams, but there’s still a chance that my forecasting of only 4 of these teams making the playoffs was correct. Mostly because…the AFC is still out-of-whack.
I had 5 of the division winners making the playoffs again:
New England (1st in division, projected 10.99 wins)
Houston (last in division, 5.03 projected wins)
Denver (1st in division, 11.50 projected wins)
Green Bay (3rd in division, 6.48 projected wins)
San Francisco (2nd in division, 11.23 projected wins)
That also leaves me with these 3 division winners that I did not project to make the playoffs in 2013:
Baltimore (2nd in division, 7.66 projected wins)
Washington (last in division 3.97 projected wins)
Atlanta (3rd in division, 5.85 projected wins)
Thus far, I’ve done a decent job with the projections. There were a few monkey wrenches here. I didn’t expect Houston to fall off so badly. Although I predicted this last year, so I was a year off. Aaron Rodgers getting hurt didn’t help matters. And while I projected the Seahawks to go 9-7, I didn’t think Russell Wilson could continue to play on this level.
TEAMS TO WATCH OUT FOR
Dallas – The only thing holding them back is their horrid pass defense. But if they can get some players healthy (Ware, Lee, Wilcox, etc) they have some excellent metrics. They do a great job of protecting the football and forcing turnovers. This is very much like a Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer type of strategy. Unfortunately, I question how successful it will be in the postseason. And they also have the streaking Eagles to worry about. Their schedule is a bit tricky because they face the Bears on MNF with Josh McCown, but it’s a road game in December. Then it’s off to face the Packers who may not have Aaron Rodgers. And then it’s at Washington (always a tough place for the Cowboys to play) and then at home at the Eagles. They could very well come away with the division and then beat a couple of teams because they can win the turnover battle and then lose in the NFC Championship Game.
New England – Easy schedule since their division is still a joke. And their only real issue has been, believe it or not, their passing offense. They do give up a lot on the run, but in the grand scheme of things that’s not overly important. They will likely end up being a #2 seed and get easy games at Foxboro.
Cincinnati – I think they are the team that could give both New England and Denver fits. Their defense and running games are pretty strong, but they cannot quite get to that top tier level in their passing game.
3JACK