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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 17, 2013 10:29:54 GMT -5
With 2013 Pro Golf Synopsis done, I'm looking forward to doing 2014 Pro Golf Synopsis. I recently picked up another PGA Tour client and I'm in talks with a couple of more clients. I also did an interview for a golf magazine and in talks with a web site about possibly doing some writing and podcasts for them.
With that, I am interested in any suggestions from people as far as to what to research for 2014 Pro Golf Synopsis. If I take your recommendation, you will receive the data research when it is completed and I will give you a mention in 2014 Pro Golf Synopsis as well as if I write about this in GolfWRX or any other place.
As far as suggestions go, I would shoot for something that I can possibly do. For instance, one of the things I was able to do in 2013 Pro Golf Synopsis was to look at holes where the field was split between using driver and 3-wood and record the results. If you ask for me to do that for 1984...well, I don't have the data for that.
You can post suggestions here or just e-mail me at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 17, 2014 8:31:46 GMT -5
2014 Pro Golf Synopsis should be up in early December.
It will feature research results that myself and a couple of friends conducted on players of various handicaps...all the way from the mini-Tour player to 25 handicap.
We found some interesting data, particularly when it comes to short-siding yourself versus not short-siding yourself.
I uncovered some interesting data on Tour winners.
I also saw some interesting data on how to make a few more birdie putts.
I will also attack the debate of hitting up vs. hitting down with the driver using statistics and what the data shows.
And there are plenty of more odds and ends of new findings.
I will also be getting back to the blog, soon.
I wanted to take some time off given the amount of work I had been doing. My home computer was also working slow and needed to be replaced which I recently did. So a lot of times posting a blog post was a real pain in the ass.
With that, I may start up the D-Plane certification list again. That is very time consuming for me, but it is apparent that instructors and amateur golfers place value in it.
3JACK
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Post by golfbaka on Sept 17, 2014 8:36:49 GMT -5
Looking forward to it.
What do you think of Chris Sells and strokeaverage.com?
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 18, 2014 8:22:26 GMT -5
I just looked at it. There are a few similarities between the reports he produces and the reports I produce for PGA Tour players, their coaches and caddies.
But, mine is based on ShotLink data. And the service Chris provides will require the player to keep track of their own stats because they don't have ShotLink data.
It's something I am constantly asked for...statistics for a golfer that doesn't have ShotLink data. And the problem is that golfers start to lose interest in recording this data after a while.
I know golf instructor Brady Riggs has taken my work to heart and insists on his students pace off their proximity to the cup on certain shots to better understand their performance. But, most coaches lose interest or are not as convincing as Brady is at getting their players to do that.
I have talked to a few GPS tracking oriented companies interested in putting something together. But, I want this done the right way because you don't get a second chance to make a first impression. And I see the golf industry losing in popularity and rounds played significantly over the next 5 years...so you really need a product that stands out above the rest because of the shrinking market. Otherwise it will just be lumped in with a bunch of other similar products in a shrinking market and ultimately fizzle out.
3JACK
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Post by golfbaka on Sept 18, 2014 9:21:22 GMT -5
I've really struggled to keep detailed stats on my game, plus I'm not sure its a good idea to be pacing of stuff and writing notes when playing in any sort of competition. My home course is very hot on the pace of play...
How many rounds do you think you would need to take detailed notes on to get a decent idea of the shape of your game?
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 18, 2014 19:36:40 GMT -5
I've really struggled to keep detailed stats on my game, plus I'm not sure its a good idea to be pacing of stuff and writing notes when playing in any sort of competition. My home course is very hot on the pace of play... How many rounds do you think you would need to take detailed notes on to get a decent idea of the shape of your game? About 20 rounds. What I found works pretty well if you play 1 course frequently is to set up an Excel spreadsheet and track the following: 1. The score on each hole 2. Hit fwy 3. GIR 4. Putts After about 20 rounds, you can then get your scoring average on the hole. Then look at the holes and how you perform versus par. There will probably be a hole or two that you perform poorly on that you should not perform poorly on (it's one thing to struggle to make par on a tough hole, but it's another to struggle on an easy hole). Then you can look at the fwy %, GIR % and the putting for each hole. Spot out the holes that you struggle on that are easy and then look at the fwy %, GIR % and putting. If the fwy % is low...you have a problem with hitting that drive off the tee. Perhaps go out on that hole when it's not busy and hit 5-10 balls off the tee and try to pick a different spot to aim at or hit a different type of shot. If your fwy % is fine, but the GIR is low...then you have an approach shot problem. Perhaps you're not taking enough club. Or perhaps you need to focus more on the middle of the green. Or perhaps you need to accept that you are going to struggle on the approach and you are better off determining where you want to miss if you miss the green. And if fwy %, GIR % are fine...then you may be reading the greens wrong. I found this out at Metrowest where I would essentially over-read the putts on the back nine. The other thing I keep track of for some quicky stats is the following: SCORE FWY GIR PUTTS IMPEDED SHOTS 15/5 SCORE 3JACK |
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Post by golfbaka on Sept 19, 2014 3:28:05 GMT -5
My course in very quirky off the tee and a few of the fairways are basically unhittable! For me impeded shots from the tee is a more valuable stat for my driving. At my previous club I had done such an analysis and basically I really struggled on two holes - one of them I turned into one of my best holes and the other I learned to lower my expectations and accept a bogey more often then not, rather pressing for a par and bringing double or worse into play.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 30, 2014 10:13:26 GMT -5
Still in the process of the most time consuming part, the 177 player-by-player analysis of the PGA Tour. On a good day, I can do about 10 of them. So at 177 players this year, that's 17.7 days. And that doesn't include the other writing I have to do.
I believe I should be able to set this up for a Kindle version as well.
What I *might* have to do is have Kindle users pay for the e-book version and then e-mail me if they want the Kindle version and I'll e-mail them the Kindle file.
Still planning to have this out in early December.
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 2, 2014 15:09:57 GMT -5
I know I've been asked this before. I've been doing some work on this and came up with a pretty good answer.
Usually the question is about 'is there a certain number of events that a Tour player plays well in that accounts for a certain percentage of their earnings for the year?
What I have found is that you can usually go by the 80/20 rule.
80% of the earnings will be earned in the 20% of your events.
For example, if a player earns $1 million for the year AND plays in 20 events. It's pretty likely that they earned roughly $800k of those earnings in their top-4 events for the year. This typically applies to people that win on Tour that season as well. If anything, the % of earnings may go up to about 88% from 20% of their events if the player has a poor season where they just happen to win out of the blue.
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 2, 2014 15:12:32 GMT -5
This year the average Tour player played in 24.4 events on the season (for those that qualified statistically which is basically full-exempt status). Therefore, the 80% of the earnings are likely to come from the average Tour player's top-5 events.
3JACK
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Post by teeace on Oct 5, 2014 15:14:54 GMT -5
I know I've been asked this before. I've been doing some work on this and came up with a pretty good answer. Usually the question is about 'is there a certain number of events that a Tour player plays well in that accounts for a certain percentage of their earnings for the year? What I have found is that you can usually go by the 80/20 rule. 80% of the earnings will be earned in the 20% of your events. For example, if a player earns $1 million for the year AND plays in 20 events. It's pretty likely that they earned roughly $800k of those earnings in their top-4 events for the year. This typically applies to people that win on Tour that season as well. If anything, the % of earnings may go up to about 88% from 20% of their events if the player has a poor season where they just happen to win out of the blue. 3JACK This 80/20 rule is funny thing as it goes for everything. In sales it has been always said that 20& of products of the company make 80% of selling. And the same thing in very many things in our life. Good thing for all players to understand |
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 6, 2014 13:02:24 GMT -5
Yeah, it's not something that was hard for me to figure out as it is commonly used in other forms of life. Although I think that is where the golf course industry in the US screws the pooch, they cater more to the 80% of golfers that only account for 20% of business instead of keeping the 20% of loyal customers that account for 80% of the business happy. The main idea is to increase your total customer base while maintaining the 80/20 principle. Instead, they cater to the masses without ever converting some of them into the loyal customers.
3JACK
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Post by gmbtempe on Oct 13, 2014 9:37:01 GMT -5
And I see the golf industry losing in popularity and rounds played significantly over the next 5 years...so you really need a product that stands out above the rest because of the shrinking market. 3JACK I have been saying this for a few years so its not a surprise to me but any reasons why you make the statement? |
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 13, 2014 11:12:09 GMT -5
The golfing industry is a bit cyclical, but I think that is overblown by most in the industry. I would expect the popularity to go down due to its cyclical nature, but I think it is going down more than it should.
I think if you look at the message boards now versus what they were in 2009 (when I got back into the game), there is a giant drop-off in posts and popularity.
The Tour didn't help matters by putting all of their eggs in the Tiger basket. It didn't make the game more popular to *play*, it just made it more popular to *watch* and more acceptable for a person to play the game (if I didn't play basketball and football in HS, I would have been a certifiable dork for just playing golf. It just wasn't accepted back then as it is now). There's Rory now...but he's not Tiger and he's not American. I like Rory a lot, but the American golfing public will never buy into a non-American player as much as they would an American player.
I think the residual effects of the golf course market is going to be felt. Too many courses were built and they were too expensive. Many of those courses have to keep going even though they lose money because of deals that were made with housing developments and owners of those houses. But, the courses are now doing the bare minimum to stay afloat. I think they could resolve their issues by actually building up the restaurant and surrounding facilities (there's a case in south Florida of a housing community doing that and it working wonders). Anyway...I think that is going to crash a bit.
I think golfers are getting sick and tired of the antics of many of the OEM's like TaylorMade which make their equipment obsolete in just 6 months.
I am also concerned about the college loan debts. I don't think it will be as big of a crash as the housing market crash. But, I think it's a major problem looming. You've got kids racking up 6 figure debts who can't get work and if they do, it may pay $30k a year. And even if the market never really crashes, it still shows an underlying problem with golf...the 18-34 year old demographic can't afford to play.
Lastly, golf has never resolved the fact (or even acknowledged it) that working class America does not have the paid time off like it used to in the 80's or before (or even the 90's). I know that when I got into the workforce I had 12 paid holidays off. Now I have 8. My dad used to get 4 weeks vacation that could accrue as much as he wanted to year-after-year. I knew a lot of people in similar situations.
For me, I get 2 weeks vacation that can only accrue to another 2 weeks on top of that.
My time is limited and that means the competition for my time becomes more intense. Golf courses have yet to acknowledge that and they still use the same ole business model and the same ole business practices to their detriment.
3JACK
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Post by gmbtempe on Oct 13, 2014 12:55:39 GMT -5
I think you hit on a lot of the points but I would also add that the changing demographic of the make-up of the Country has a lot to do with it as well.
The biggest thing I see is that discretionary income is at its lowest in a long long time, things like inflated cable and phone bills have hit that income hard. Increased insurance or medical bills being the other.
You have issues with the courses, time to play, and the other things as stated but I still think money trumps them all. One of my good friends, one who showed up in a couple of my vids just says its hard to spend exta money on that sort of thing. We will play but only walking the muni's (two of which have closed in recently in a City of 6 million) and not for more than $20.
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