Post by Richie3Jack on Feb 7, 2014 10:04:41 GMT -5
It’s a slow Friday, so I decided to take a sneak peak of next year’s NFL season using the ‘parity puzzle.’
We had 13 teams with losing records in 2013. That projects to 4 of those teams making the playoffs in 2014:
Buffalo (6-10)
Cleveland (4-12)
Tennessee (7-9)
Jacksonville (4-12)
Houston (2-14)
Oakland (4-12)
NY Giants (7-9)
Washington (3-13)
Detroit (7-9)
Minnesota (5-10-1)
Atlanta (4-12)
Tampa Bay (4-12)
St. Louis (7-9)
As a reminder, the teams that usually make the jump from a losing record to the playoffs usually have the QB to do it. The most ardent trend is that the team will have a ‘veteran’ QB that could be labeled ‘decent.’ They don’t even have to be good or well thought of, but if they are a veteran and ‘decent’, they tend to propel teams to the top. In recent years there has been the rookie QB that has propelled these teams to the playoffs and this is supposed to be a pretty good QB draft class.
Here were the 2013 playoff teams and their QB’s that made the playoffs despite a losing record in 2012:
Kansas City (Alex Smith)
San Diego (Phillip Rivers)
Philadelphia (Nick Foles)
New Orleans (Drew Brees)
Carolina (Cam Newton)
I think Matt Schaub is ‘decent’, but I’m not sure if the Texans will keep him around. I would try if I were them because they could make the playoffs with him and give their 1st overall pick a year to sit and learn the game. If the team performs poorly under Schaub in 2014, that actually works to their benefit as they will still have high draft picks and an easier schedule.
But other than that, I would expect 2 of the AFC losing teams to make the playoffs and feature a rookie QB. I’m guessing Bridgewater and Bortles. I like Manziel, but he’s simply not ready in 2014, IMO.
The NFC features much more ‘veteran QB’s that are at the very least decent.’ You’ve got:
Eli Manning (NY Giants)
RG3 (Washington)
Matt Stafford (Detroit)
Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
Out of the group I like Ryan the most. Then it’s hard to decipher between either Stafford or Manning. Obviously, 3 of the 4 projected teams to make the playoffs could come from the NFC. But I tend to believe that each division will have 2 and I would take Eli and Coughlin along with Ryan and Mike Smith than RG3 and Jay Gruden or Matt Stafford and Jim Caldwell.
The forecast for this year is that only 3 out of the 8 division winners will return to the playoffs. The division winners this year were:
New England*
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Denver*
Philadelphia
Green Bay*
Carolina
Seattle
The teams with a * were division winners in 2012 and returned to the playoffs. The only other division winner from 2012 that returned to the playoffs was the Niners (4 out of 8).
Division winners returning to the playoffs is mostly about….the QB play. In particular, QB’s getting injured. I think there are a lot of QB’s at risk here. Brady turns 37 years old and Peyton turns 38 years old (and may retire). Luck gets hit a ton behind the porous O-Line. Philly’s break-neck style can expose Foles. Rodgers has an injury history. Newton is a scrambling QB and so is Wilson, who gets sacked a lot.
So with all of that, here’s my early projections for playoff teams for 2014:
AFC
New England
Pittsburgh
Houston
San Diego
Jacksonville
Baltimore
NFC
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans
Seattle
San Francisco
Atlanta
Predicted Super Bowl: Seattle vs. New England
3JACK
We had 13 teams with losing records in 2013. That projects to 4 of those teams making the playoffs in 2014:
Buffalo (6-10)
Cleveland (4-12)
Tennessee (7-9)
Jacksonville (4-12)
Houston (2-14)
Oakland (4-12)
NY Giants (7-9)
Washington (3-13)
Detroit (7-9)
Minnesota (5-10-1)
Atlanta (4-12)
Tampa Bay (4-12)
St. Louis (7-9)
As a reminder, the teams that usually make the jump from a losing record to the playoffs usually have the QB to do it. The most ardent trend is that the team will have a ‘veteran’ QB that could be labeled ‘decent.’ They don’t even have to be good or well thought of, but if they are a veteran and ‘decent’, they tend to propel teams to the top. In recent years there has been the rookie QB that has propelled these teams to the playoffs and this is supposed to be a pretty good QB draft class.
Here were the 2013 playoff teams and their QB’s that made the playoffs despite a losing record in 2012:
Kansas City (Alex Smith)
San Diego (Phillip Rivers)
Philadelphia (Nick Foles)
New Orleans (Drew Brees)
Carolina (Cam Newton)
I think Matt Schaub is ‘decent’, but I’m not sure if the Texans will keep him around. I would try if I were them because they could make the playoffs with him and give their 1st overall pick a year to sit and learn the game. If the team performs poorly under Schaub in 2014, that actually works to their benefit as they will still have high draft picks and an easier schedule.
But other than that, I would expect 2 of the AFC losing teams to make the playoffs and feature a rookie QB. I’m guessing Bridgewater and Bortles. I like Manziel, but he’s simply not ready in 2014, IMO.
The NFC features much more ‘veteran QB’s that are at the very least decent.’ You’ve got:
Eli Manning (NY Giants)
RG3 (Washington)
Matt Stafford (Detroit)
Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
Out of the group I like Ryan the most. Then it’s hard to decipher between either Stafford or Manning. Obviously, 3 of the 4 projected teams to make the playoffs could come from the NFC. But I tend to believe that each division will have 2 and I would take Eli and Coughlin along with Ryan and Mike Smith than RG3 and Jay Gruden or Matt Stafford and Jim Caldwell.
The forecast for this year is that only 3 out of the 8 division winners will return to the playoffs. The division winners this year were:
New England*
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Denver*
Philadelphia
Green Bay*
Carolina
Seattle
The teams with a * were division winners in 2012 and returned to the playoffs. The only other division winner from 2012 that returned to the playoffs was the Niners (4 out of 8).
Division winners returning to the playoffs is mostly about….the QB play. In particular, QB’s getting injured. I think there are a lot of QB’s at risk here. Brady turns 37 years old and Peyton turns 38 years old (and may retire). Luck gets hit a ton behind the porous O-Line. Philly’s break-neck style can expose Foles. Rodgers has an injury history. Newton is a scrambling QB and so is Wilson, who gets sacked a lot.
So with all of that, here’s my early projections for playoff teams for 2014:
AFC
New England
Pittsburgh
Houston
San Diego
Jacksonville
Baltimore
NFC
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans
Seattle
San Francisco
Atlanta
Predicted Super Bowl: Seattle vs. New England
3JACK