Post by Richie3Jack on Apr 2, 2014 8:44:01 GMT -5
Only a few more weeks before the draft starts. The Free Agency period was slow for the most part, outside of the Eagles releasing DeSean Jackson and the Redskins signing him. This seems like a very typical Redskins signing and it's funny to watch Redskins fans really believe that Bruce Allen will change how they do their offseason. He was the same guy that ran Tampa Bay's salary cap right into the ground. In a sense, I understand their pain. When Pasqualoni left Syracuse, I was pretty much content with saying 'well, it's better than having Pasqualoni.'
Anyway, I won't go thru my 'Parity Puzzle' at this moment. I'll save that for before the season starts and the draft is made and all of the injuries in preseason get out of the way. But, here's who I like for playoff teams at this moment:
AFC
New England
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Denver
San Diego
"Honorable Mention":
1. Baltimore
2. Houston
3. Kansas City
4. Indianapolis
I'm predicting 4 teams will make the playoffs that had losing records in 2013. 2 in each conference for now. So that's why I have Buffalo and Tennessee here for now. Admittedly, not the most confidence in those teams. I wouldn't be surprised if only 1 team with a losing record goes to the playoffs in the AFC and then 3 in the NFC. I like Doug Marrone and he kept his team competitive despite the rash of injuries, particularly at QB. Ralph Wilson is gone and I'm thinking they'll 'win one for the Gipper.' I actually like Houston's chances, but going from 2-14 to the playoffs is a tall order. And if they don't draft a QB, they are D-U-M-B. Particularly with this draft class and particularly with how the rookie wage scale doesn't kill teams anymore. Honestly, if they were smart, they would draft a QB they feel is the best, sit him out for a year and let Ryan Fitzpatrick start in 2013. No QB has ever been hurt by sitting out for a year. And essentially, they are 'tanking' the 2014 season. That means a softer schedule for 2015, better draft position, with the top drafted player at QB ready to go.
So in the end, I'm taking Tennessee for now, mainly because of Wisenhunt as their coach and they went 7-9 last year. When I look at the data trends, I really like Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But, adding Baltimore would shake things up a bit. The numbers also really like San Diego as they can focus on defense this year to go with their high powered offense.
I took Indy out because the numbers project that only 3 of the 8 division winners from 2013 will return to the playoffs. I have New England and Denver returning and 1 from the NFC. So that leaves Indy out. The same for Cincinnati.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it go like this instead:
New England
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
San Diego
or
New England
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Houston
Tennessee
Denver
NFC
NY Giants
Chicago
New Orleans
Atlanta
Seattle
San Francisco
Honorable Mention:
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. Washington
4. Minnesota
5. Detroit
So for now...I have 2 playoff teams with losing records in 2013 in the NFC (Atlanta and Giants). I think they are 2 very good bets given their QB's and their coaches. I think the trends indicate they are better that the other losing record teams with capable QB's (Washington, Detroit and Minnesota).
I also only have 1 division winner returning in 2014 (Seattle). I do think Seattle is a bit vulnerable here because their QB is a low production QB. To Wilson's credit...he doesn't turn the ball over and he doesn't lose much yardage. He's really good at taking a play that has broken down badly, scrambling and then throwing the ball away.
Of course, if the Seahawks have their Super Bowl slump then I think that opens things up for Green Bay. When you look at the sheer numbers and what translates to winning, Mike McCarthey is by far the most underrated coach in football. I just question if Rodgers can stay healthy. Philly new wave approach impresses me on some levels, but has a 'boom or bust' feel to it. It would not shock me if the Eagles get destroyed this year and Kelly goes back to college in 2015. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if they go to the Super Bowl either. I do think they hurt themselves by losing Jackson as the offense could be situated where they could have McCoy going one way and Jackson going the other and their pure speed made it really hard for defenses.
Minnesota making the playoffs would make hell for me. I'm not a big fan of Mike Zimmer as he was the Dallas D-Coordinator for 7 painful years. He may have changed his ways in Cincy, but I think he was helped out by Marvin Lewis...one of the best D-Coordinators of our generation. But, I can just see Zimmer making the playoffs and Cowboys fans ranting that we should have kept him here (apparently they didn't see the massive incompetence in 2004 and 2006 along with the team drafting a defensive player in the 1st round for 7 straight seasons).
I like Stafford and Megatron, but Detroit had issues with their pass defense and....hired an offensive minded coach.
I wouldn't be surprised if 3 teams that had losing records in 2013 made the playoffs, so here's a look at what it could possibly look like:
NY Giants
Washington
Chicago
Atlanta
New Orleans
Seattle
Or if 3 made the playoffs and Seattle didn't:
NY Giants
Washington
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans
San Francisco
Of if 2 made the playoffs and Seattle didn't:
NY Giants
Green Bay
Chicago
Atlanta
New Orleans
San Francisco
I don't like Carolina, particularly with the Cam Newton injury. I don't think Carson Palmer can hold up enough for another season with Arizona. And my Cowboys are a mess, although I'm happy that they have basically said that they won't sign players 30+ years old to big money anymore. If that truly happens, then Jay Ratliff is worth his weight in gold. And if they can continue to stockpile picks and finally address the safety position, then the short term pain and agony will be worth it. But, I predict them to go 6-10 this season.
3JACK
Anyway, I won't go thru my 'Parity Puzzle' at this moment. I'll save that for before the season starts and the draft is made and all of the injuries in preseason get out of the way. But, here's who I like for playoff teams at this moment:
AFC
New England
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Denver
San Diego
"Honorable Mention":
1. Baltimore
2. Houston
3. Kansas City
4. Indianapolis
I'm predicting 4 teams will make the playoffs that had losing records in 2013. 2 in each conference for now. So that's why I have Buffalo and Tennessee here for now. Admittedly, not the most confidence in those teams. I wouldn't be surprised if only 1 team with a losing record goes to the playoffs in the AFC and then 3 in the NFC. I like Doug Marrone and he kept his team competitive despite the rash of injuries, particularly at QB. Ralph Wilson is gone and I'm thinking they'll 'win one for the Gipper.' I actually like Houston's chances, but going from 2-14 to the playoffs is a tall order. And if they don't draft a QB, they are D-U-M-B. Particularly with this draft class and particularly with how the rookie wage scale doesn't kill teams anymore. Honestly, if they were smart, they would draft a QB they feel is the best, sit him out for a year and let Ryan Fitzpatrick start in 2013. No QB has ever been hurt by sitting out for a year. And essentially, they are 'tanking' the 2014 season. That means a softer schedule for 2015, better draft position, with the top drafted player at QB ready to go.
So in the end, I'm taking Tennessee for now, mainly because of Wisenhunt as their coach and they went 7-9 last year. When I look at the data trends, I really like Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But, adding Baltimore would shake things up a bit. The numbers also really like San Diego as they can focus on defense this year to go with their high powered offense.
I took Indy out because the numbers project that only 3 of the 8 division winners from 2013 will return to the playoffs. I have New England and Denver returning and 1 from the NFC. So that leaves Indy out. The same for Cincinnati.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it go like this instead:
New England
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
San Diego
or
New England
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Houston
Tennessee
Denver
NFC
NY Giants
Chicago
New Orleans
Atlanta
Seattle
San Francisco
Honorable Mention:
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. Washington
4. Minnesota
5. Detroit
So for now...I have 2 playoff teams with losing records in 2013 in the NFC (Atlanta and Giants). I think they are 2 very good bets given their QB's and their coaches. I think the trends indicate they are better that the other losing record teams with capable QB's (Washington, Detroit and Minnesota).
I also only have 1 division winner returning in 2014 (Seattle). I do think Seattle is a bit vulnerable here because their QB is a low production QB. To Wilson's credit...he doesn't turn the ball over and he doesn't lose much yardage. He's really good at taking a play that has broken down badly, scrambling and then throwing the ball away.
Of course, if the Seahawks have their Super Bowl slump then I think that opens things up for Green Bay. When you look at the sheer numbers and what translates to winning, Mike McCarthey is by far the most underrated coach in football. I just question if Rodgers can stay healthy. Philly new wave approach impresses me on some levels, but has a 'boom or bust' feel to it. It would not shock me if the Eagles get destroyed this year and Kelly goes back to college in 2015. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if they go to the Super Bowl either. I do think they hurt themselves by losing Jackson as the offense could be situated where they could have McCoy going one way and Jackson going the other and their pure speed made it really hard for defenses.
Minnesota making the playoffs would make hell for me. I'm not a big fan of Mike Zimmer as he was the Dallas D-Coordinator for 7 painful years. He may have changed his ways in Cincy, but I think he was helped out by Marvin Lewis...one of the best D-Coordinators of our generation. But, I can just see Zimmer making the playoffs and Cowboys fans ranting that we should have kept him here (apparently they didn't see the massive incompetence in 2004 and 2006 along with the team drafting a defensive player in the 1st round for 7 straight seasons).
I like Stafford and Megatron, but Detroit had issues with their pass defense and....hired an offensive minded coach.
I wouldn't be surprised if 3 teams that had losing records in 2013 made the playoffs, so here's a look at what it could possibly look like:
NY Giants
Washington
Chicago
Atlanta
New Orleans
Seattle
Or if 3 made the playoffs and Seattle didn't:
NY Giants
Washington
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans
San Francisco
Of if 2 made the playoffs and Seattle didn't:
NY Giants
Green Bay
Chicago
Atlanta
New Orleans
San Francisco
I don't like Carolina, particularly with the Cam Newton injury. I don't think Carson Palmer can hold up enough for another season with Arizona. And my Cowboys are a mess, although I'm happy that they have basically said that they won't sign players 30+ years old to big money anymore. If that truly happens, then Jay Ratliff is worth his weight in gold. And if they can continue to stockpile picks and finally address the safety position, then the short term pain and agony will be worth it. But, I predict them to go 6-10 this season.
3JACK