Stats when playing well???

[cwdlaw223]

So what are some of the key stats when tour players break 70?

For example, how many GIRs do they have when they break 70? 14-15?

Percentage make from 5'? 8'? 10'? I suspect it is higher than on average.

How many shots less than 125 yards after their tee shot?

Fairways hit?

How many birdies per round?

I'm looking for stats when guys are playing well instead of "average" stats which has both good and bad mixed together. I think it would be interesting to see the stats for good rounds on "average." I define good as less than 70.

[Richie3Jack]

It's mostly about their ability to get birdie opportunities (whether it is putting or chipping) inside 20-feet.

The other factor is to keep their par putts inside 7-feet.

Too large of a deviation in GIR's hit on sub-70 rounds. Not uncommon to see a player hit 7 GIR and shoot 68.

About a month ago, Mark Sweeney did a statistical study of Tour players and their 'expected birdie percentage.' It looks at how close players get the ball to the hole. So it takes out putting.

His work showed that generally the longer the hitter, the better their expected Birdie Percentage was. This is more or less what I've been saying for a while...the best benefit to long hitting is that it allows a player to putt worse and still be as successful. That's because they are likely hitting the par-5's in 2 shots (or coming close) and leaving themselves with shorter birdie putts on the par-5's.

The only thing I dislike about Mark's metrics is it does not account for when the golfer misses the GIR.

And I have experienced this with one of my clients who is one of the longest hitters on the Tour. He will get a lot of birdie opportunities inside 20 feet in a round. But, he tends to give away holes because he will hit a shot so off-line that he can't give himself a par save inside 7-feet.

That's why I like to use the 15/5 rule. It gets more to the heart of what matters...getting the birdie and par putts close to the hole. If you can do that, odds are your score will go down. If they don't...then you know putting is your issue.






3JACK

[ericpaul2]

what's the 15/5 rule?

[Richie3Jack]

For 10 or less handicaps:

A. Give yourself 2 points for every birdie putt inside 15 feet

B. Give yourself 1 point for every par save inside 5 feet

C. Give yourself 3 points for every eagle putt inside 15 feet

D. Take away -3 points if the par save is not within 5 feet.


You can only assign yourself one score per hole and that is the highest score per hole.

For example, if you have a 12-foot birdie putt and miss the putt and have a 1-foot tap in...you can only score yourself +2 points for the hole (instead of giving yourself +3 points).

Conversely, if I have a 12-foot birdie putt and miss the putt and leave myself with a 6-foot par putt, I still only score it as +2 points. It is a scoring methodology that is trying to take putting out of the equation.


For 10+ handicappers, move every point scoring system up by 1 stroke.

So, +2 for a par putt inside 15-feet, +1 for a bogey putt inside 15 feet and -3 if the bogey putt is not inside 5-feet.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

1 more thing...

The reason why I discuss putts inside 20-feet and 7-feet for Tour players is that their make % is higher. The shots to the green are also much more difficult. The 50-50 make to miss ratio for a putt for Tour players is at 7-feet. And once putts get longer than 20-feet, the make percentage drops so much that nobody is going to realistically make a lot of birdies.

That's why aiming for the middle of the green and not trying to get the ball close to the hole is a strategy that should not be used that often. You're basically resigning yourself to *at best* making par. In fact, for the Tour player they start to average more than 2 putts to the hole when the putt is 34 feet long. So at 34 feet is when they are more likely to 3-putt than 2-putt and make par.

There is going to be times when even the best in the world are best off aiming for the middle of the green rather than going for the flag. But as far as shooting in the 60's goes, you really can't afford to that more than twice a round. And those guys that do aim for the middle of the green usually do it when they have a bad lie or a very tough pin position. #18 at Bay Hill is a good example of where players are a bit gunshy at going for it.

But...take into account all of those other shots where Tour players are shooting for the flag and you're seeing a lot of approach shots that your ordinary golfer would perceive as no reason to fire at the flag...but most of the Tour players are doing the opposite and actually firing at the flag.

The real key is to gauge where you can up-and-down from and fire at the flag with a bias towards avoiding where you CANNOT get up-and-down from.


For instance, my data shows that approach shots that land in front bunkers are likely to plug (even on the PGA Tour). So, I may have a pin tucked to the right and just behind a front bunker. If you have a decent shot at getting up-and-down as long as you don't get into the front bunker, the play would be to aim at the flag and use a little more club to make sure you don't go in the bunker.





3JACK

[pavaveda]

Aug 12, 2014 13:07:21 GMT -5 Richie3Jack said:

So, +2 for a par putt inside 15-feet, +1 for a bogey putt inside 15 feet and -3 if the bogey putt is not inside 5-feet.

Typo? Should be "+1 for a bogey putt inside five feet", right?

[Richie3Jack]

Correct.

Thanks for spotting the error.




3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

Thanks Richie. I have another session with Dr. McCabe coming up thanks to you! I love his work.