3Jack's 2014 NFL Season Predictions

[Richie3Jack]

Every year, I do my pre-season NFL predictions. It is based on the fascination I had for Paul Zimmerman’s (aka Dr. Z) 1986 prognostications where he got every division winner, wildcard and even the Super Bowl teams and the eventual winner (Giants) correct that year. It’s an impressive feat that I don’t think has ever come close to being duplicated.

As a statistician and analyst in my ‘real life job’, I like to read a lot of books on the advanced statistical analytics of football. However, each year I find the preseason predictions quite underwhelming. It’s usually the same thing…the ‘good teams’ from the previous year will remain ‘good teams’ and the poor teams from the previous year will remain ‘poor teams.’

Back in 2007 I decided to examine the league more closely. This was prompted after the great 2006 season the New Orleans Saints had. After that season, fans and experts acted like the Saints rise to success was assuredly going to happen. But, what they forgot was how nobody (myself included) gave a team that was decimated by Hurricane Katrina, with a rookie head coach and a then pretty good QB that just tore his labrum and wanted to play for Miami but he didn’t pass their physical…any chance for success in 2006.

And that just seems how the NFL plays out each year, doesn’t it?

Some of the bad teams will have a meteoric rise the next season. And some very good teams will far apart from the seams the following season.

Through my research I discovered some concrete trends that exist in the NFL and when we look at the big picture we can see how the NFL is a parity driven league. More importantly, we can start to get a more accurate depiction of what parity in the NFL truly is.

I’ve often referred to this as the parity puzzle or the machine of parity. One piece (team) doesn’t fit and another piece (team) has to step up in its place in order to keep the league running like it does.


TEAMS WITH LOSING RECORDS

Since 1999, roughly 30% of the teams with losing records each season have made the playoffs the following year. In *2012*, there were 16 teams with losing records. That projected to 5 of those teams making the playoffs in 2013 which is exactly what happened (KC, San Diego, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Carolina)

For 2013, we had 13 teams with losing records:

Buffalo (6-10)
Cleveland (4-12)
Tennessee (7-9)
Jacksonville (4-12)
Houston (2-14)
Oakland (4-12)
NY Giants (7-9)
Washington (3-13)
Detroit (7-9)
Minnesota (5-10-1)
Atlanta (4-12)
Tampa Bay (4-12)
St. Louis (7-9)

The most common trait of a team with a losing record that jumps to the playoffs the following year is at the Quarterback position. This is usually a team with a veteran QB (3+ years) that could be at the very least labeled ‘decent.’ Come November the league can make life hell for Quarterbacks, particularly on the road. So, it helps to have a veteran that can manage those road games and be at least fairly productive for the offense.

The other trend is the Head Coach. In particular, a head coach that has taken any team to the playoffs before. An even larger trend for a coach that has taken that particular team to the playoffs before. With that said, the veteran ‘decent’ QB is the much more relevant trend here.

Lastly, there is a late trend of rookie QB’s that come in and bring teams to the playoffs, but that appears to depend on the quality of the QB draft class.

Here was a look at last year’s teams that made the jump and their QB’s and Head Coaches:

Kansas City (Alex Smith, Andy Reid)
San Diego (Phillip Rivers, Mike McCoy)
Philadelphia (Nick Foles, Chip Kelly)
New Orleans (Drew Brees, Sean Payton)
Carolina (Cam Newton, Ron Rivera)

So, we can see the obvious trend…the ‘veteran QB that is at least ‘decent.’ Foles is probably the only one you could not consider a ‘veteran’, but he played superbly under Chip Kelly’s groundbreaking offense.

Here is a look at the teams with losing records in 2013 and their coaches:

Buffalo (EJ Manuel, Doug Marrone)
Cleveland (Brian Hoyer, Mike Pettine)
Tennessee (Jake Locker, Ken Whisenhunt)
Jacksonville (Chad Henne, Gus Bradley)
Houston (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bill O’Brien)
Oakland (Derek Carr, Dennis Allen)
NY Giants (Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin)
Washington (RG3, Jay Gruden)
Detroit (Matt Stafford, Jim Caldwell)
Minnesota (Matt Cassel, Mike Zimmer)
Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Mike Smith)
Tampa Bay (Josh McCown, Lovie Smith)
St. Louis (Shaun Hill, Jeff Fisher)


The problem here is that AFC doesn’t really have what I would call a strong group of Quarterbacks. However, in all likelihood we will still see 2 of these losing teams from the AFC and 2 from the NFC make the playoffs and I will stick with that projection.

Therefore, I choose for the AFC:

Tennessee
Houston

Tennessee had some good advanced metrics from last season and got off to a nice start (3-1) before Locker got hurt and threw their season in disarray. And I think Whisenhunt is a better coach than Mike Munchak. I think Houston got a steal in Ryan Mallett for a conditional 7th rounder. I’m not sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mallett take over for him. But, Houston was a team that went 22-10 in the two seasons prior to 2013. And with JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney, a good pass rush has statistically helped make up for a lot of deficiencies on a team.

For the AFC, I will choose:

Atlanta
NY Giants

Over the years I keep finding myself having teams that looked favorable to pick to make the jump to the playoffs, but end up talking myself out of it. Last year it was the Carolina Panthers with Cam Newton. But, I listened to everybody tell me how awful Ron Rivera was and then 12-4 and aggravated me with the fact that I wanted to pick them.

I have my reservations about both Atlanta and the G-Men. But, I think they fit the mold of a team that will make the jump and they play in more favorable conferences to do so. The Lions have Stafford, but have to worry about the Packers. The same with Minnesota and I prefer Stafford much more over Matt Cassel. I think Lovie Smith is a good coach, but it will probably take him a year to turn things around in Tampa. And the Rams are promising, but have to get around a very tough division.

So with that, we are down to 8 more playoff teams left to project, 4 on each side.


2013 DIVISION WINNERS

Here is where the NFL is a proven parity driven league.

Since 1999, 48% of the division winners have made the playoffs the following year. This means that a division winner has been slightly more likely to MISS the playoffs the following year than make the playoffs the following year.

And since 1999, there has only been 1 time where more than 5 of the previous year’s division winners made the playoffs. That happened in 2012, when 6 of the division winners returned. Mainly because the AFC was so weak that all 4 of the 2011 division winners not only returned to the playoffs in 2012, but they kept claim to their division title in 2012 as well.

Generally, the more teams with losing records there are the more likely the division winners will make the playoffs again. 15 or more teams with losing records in a season is ‘high number.’ I believe this trend is basically due to the fact that when there are seasons where there are a high number of losing record teams, that means the discrepancy is larger between the division winners and the rest of the league.

In 2012, we had 16 teams with losing records. That projected to 5 of the division winning teams making the playoffs in 2013 which is exactly what happened (New England, Indianapolis, Denver, Green Bay, Seattle).

This year, the projections have 4 of the 8 division winners making the playoffs. So, what are the trends of a division winner returning to the playoffs the following season?

Quarterback play.

In particular, a good QB that stays healthy.

And teams with QB’s that have a more than 1 time injury history are much riskier to count on.

Therefore, I think the AFC is pretty easy to pick:

New England
Denver

However, the NFC is a little more difficult to pick. Aaron Rodgers has a slight injury history. Russell Wilson does not, but with his porous O-Line and scrambling style it has to make you wonder. Furthermore, the league usually doesn’t treat 2nd year QB’s very well. The counter to that is well, Russell Wilson is a 3rd year QB. But, if you look back at the league over the years the QB’s that have escaped the sophomore slump usually end up having very rough 3rd years as a pro (Roethlisberger is a good example).

I think the easy team to eliminate is the Panthers. Tougher division this year and with Cam Newton’s ankle issues I think it throws the Panthers off this year. It was difficult to choose the 2 NFC Division winners, but I went with the following:

Green Bay
Seattle

I am worried about Green Bay’s health. And I think the Seahawks are built on a strong running game and incredible defense. But, if the running game collapses or the defense is more or less pretty good instead of historically great, I wonder if they can survive.

What made me pick Green Bay is Rodgers’ ability and how strong Seattle looked in preseason. I also think the Eagles may have some growing pains with other defenses figuring out how to stop their no huddle offense. I will say this, Chip Kelly is the most intriguing coach I’ve probably ever seen in the game of football.


THE REST OF THE TEAMS

There is no real trends here as to what teams will make the playoffs again other than usually 1 of the wildcard teams from the previous year will return. Anyway, here are the .500+ teams from last season that did not win their division:

Miami (8-8)
NY Jets (8-8)
Pittsburgh (8-8)
Baltimore (8-8)
Kansas City (11-5)
San Diego (9-7)
Dallas (8-8)
Chicago (8-8)
New Orleans (11-5)
San Francisco (12-4)
Arizona (10-6)

I will choose the following AFC teams:

Pittsburgh
San Diego

Pittsburgh ended the season strong and I like what they have done to their defense. They have the QB and the coach. I also think the pressure is starting to creep up on Mike Tomlin because if he misses the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row, while I doubt he will be fired…he will be directly in the hot seat.

The Jets’ metrics were terrible last year and it was a minor miracle they managed to go 8-8. The Dolphins look better, but I would still take Mike McCoy and Phillip Rivers over Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill. And Kansas City really fell off towards the end of last year.

For the NFC, I will choose:

New Orleans
San Francisco

I will get to Dallas in a bit. Chicago still appears to have the same issues on defense and Arizona is decimated by injuries. I don’t like the direction of the Niners, but I would love to see Harbaugh coaching the Cowboys and knowing our luck, he will manage to pull out a good season and sign a huge extension with the Niners.

So, that leaves us with the playoff picture looking like this:

NEW ENGLAND
PITTSBURGH
HOUSTON
TENNESSEE
DENVER
SAN DIEGO

NY GIANTS
GREEN BAY
NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA
SEATTLE
SAN FRANCISCO

I feel quite confident about the AFC projections. Their numbers make for some very clear projections. The NFC is almost at the opposite end of the spectrum. I feel good about New Orleans making the playoffs and then the rest of the teams I have my doubts. But, there was no way I could construct it to have the confidence level I have with the AFC. So, I stuck mostly with the top-QB’s and Head Coaches. I will say that I think St. Louis may really surprise some people.


MY BELOVED COWBOYS THOUGHTS

When looking at the numbers the Cowboys are once again in ‘statistical limbo.’ They could win the division and fit nicely into the parity puzzle. The Cowboys winning the division would likely mean that the Giants (or the Redskins) would not make the playoffs. That would be 1 of the teams with a losing record that did not make the playoffs. However, if that were to happen that could be possibly substituted by the Lions or the Rams.

The defense will likely be better than last season because I don’t think it can get worse. And I think there is just more talent on the field…because they actually have some semblance of players being healthy on defense. For all of the talk about letting DeMarcus Ware go, he hardly played in 2013 and was badly injured for most of 2012.

I think the offense is much better, particularly since Jason Garrett won’t have the play calling duties. But, this is a team that needs to run the ball more often in order to keep their defense off the field. And Scott Linehan has never been a heavy run play-caller.

To me, this should be a good year to test Garrett’s ability as a coach. They have their strengths (offense) and have their weaknesses (defense and defensive depth). A good coach can pull out a 10-6 season. A bad coach goes 4-12 here. And a coach that goes 8-8 after going 8-8 the previous 3 years is likely a very average coach that will never take your team to the Super Bowl.

In the end, what bothers me is that this was a team that went 0-4 in preseason and looked poor in the process. And I don’t think Garrett or Linehan has shown the ability to put together an offense that can score a lot of points but manage the time of possession well enough to keep their defense healthy and put them in favorable situations to succeed.


FINAL PROJECTED RECORDS

AFC EAST

New England 12-4
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 6-10
NY Jets 6-10


AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 3-13


AFC SOUTH

Tennessee 9-7
Houston 9-7
Indianapolis 7-9
Jacksonville 4-12


AFC WEST

Denver 13-3
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 5-11



NFC EAST

NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 6-10
Dallas 6-10


NFC NORTH

Green Bay 12-4
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 7-9


NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 7-9
Carolina 6-10


NFC WEST

Seattle 10-6
San Francisco 10-6
St. Louis 8-8
Arizona 5-11

Super Bowl – Green Bay 31 Denver 13

OFFENSIVE MVP: Aaron Rodgers QB (Green Bay)

DEFENSIVE MVP: Mike Mitchell S (Pittsburgh)

COACH OF THE YEAR: Mike McCarthey (Green Bay)

COACH FIRINGS: Doug Marrone (Buffalo), Rex Ryan (NY Jets), Dennis Allen (Oakland), Jason Garrett (Dallas), Ron Rivera (Carolina)

[dhc1]

Care to make a friendly wager on the eagles having a better record than the giants (and the cowboys as well)?

[cwdlaw223]

Richie -

You have to stop drinking. No way the Giants win the NFC East. Not a chance. This is the year the Eagles win it all (okay, maybe next year, or the year thereafter).

[Richie3Jack]

Sept 2, 2014 17:36:13 GMT -5 dhc1 said:

Care to make a friendly wager on the eagles having a better record than the giants (and the cowboys as well)?

As I said, I don't have a lot of confidence in the NFC projections. Mainly because the data shows that Seattle is hanging on by a thread (relies on a superb defense and a good running game. If the defense is merely 'good' then they may struggle). But, if Seattle keeps playing at the same pace and they are incredible playing at home...they can easily make the playoffs.

I like the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers does have an injury history. I'm just not sure what team can take them over. I doubt it will be the Vikings because the career record of NFL teams not playing at their home stadium is atrocious. The Lions needed defensive help...and hired an offensive coach and drafted a TE in the 1st round. And the Bears I'm just not sold on.

I am intrigued by Chip Kelly. What probably scares me the most about him as a Cowboys fan is that he is coming up with creative and perhaps revolutionary ideas towards the game of football...yet, shoots down any type of 'genius' talk. The word 'genius' loves to get thrown around in the game of football. I have a family friend that used to work for the Jets and he would tell me that Belichick was known to go to the media and proclaim how much of a genius he was and how he created this scheme design and called this play that worked, etc.

Anyway, my experience is that the true geniuses are the ones that never proclaim to be a genius. So when Kelly refutes any talk about him being a genius, that scares me into thinking that he may be way ahead of the game.


With that said...

There were times that the Eagles looked awful last year. And when they got on a hot streak it was mainly due to playing a very favorable schedule.

I also think that the premise of the offense has its flaws. Mainly that as many teams showed (including the Cowboys), you can simply play more straight up man-to-man against them. The offense has to be designed with very basic running plays and pass patterns in order to keep the pace moving along. Therfore, the defense does not have to be that complicated to stop it. Furthermore, you can do what teams like Kansas City did...set up some communication where you can occasionally set up a complex blitz look and watch one of the blitzers run free to the QB.

That's the benefit of running down the play clock, using motion, etc...it allows you to better position your players to attack the defense. And sometimes motion just allows the QB to figure out what defensive players are playing zone and which ones have more man-to-man responsibility.

So, if you are snapping the ball quickly, you don't have the time to get out of play that is unfavorable. But, that's part of the reason for the no huddle...to not allow the defense to set up blitz and coverage disguises.



Anyway...

It was tough for me to pick the Giants...but, I usually get burned each year on some team that the numbers tell me to pick and then I get talked out of it. Last year, it was the Panthers. So, I wanted to go strictly by the numbers this season and see how that pans out.








3JACK

[dhc1]

Thanks for the reply and the interesting take.

Why couldn't no-huddle teams use a lot of motion to identify defensive strategies and create mismatches? Too complex? I thought one of the main reasons for it is to not let defense substitutions occur but once the ball is set, couldn't the offense take Peyton manning type delays in hiking the ball?

I think that the redskins are the most likely to challenge the eagles and I hope to God that it's not the giants as I live in NYC with their insufferable fans.

[Richie3Jack]

Sept 5, 2014 13:36:08 GMT -5 dhc1 said:

Thanks for the reply and the interesting take.

Why couldn't no-huddle teams use a lot of motion to identify defensive strategies and create mismatches? Too complex? I thought one of the main reasons for it is to not let defense substitutions occur but once the ball is set, couldn't the offense take Peyton manning type delays in hiking the ball?

I think that the redskins are the most likely to challenge the eagles and I hope to God that it's not the giants as I live in NYC with their insufferable fans.

A no huddle team can use motion. But Kelly's offense is built around accumulating plays. The problem is if you go too slow and use too much time...you're not accumulating plays that you run. Typically the offense for a team will run about 60 plays in a game. Kelly wants more like 80 plays in a game.

The other problem is that accumulating plays in a game can mean a greater potential for more penalties and stalled out drives. While everybody likes to hear about those 12 play scoring drives, more often than not what happens is a team gets to their 9th play on the drive and gets a penalty or misses an assignment...they lose yardage and can't make up the first down. And then a potential TD on a scoring drive turns into a field goal.

The other issue is if you run a lot of plays each drive...you'll run out the clock. So the only way to accumulate plays is to use a hurry up, no huddle offense.

I haven't read or heard Kelly talk about this, but I think it's pretty simple as to what Kelly wants to do....we wants to create a high scoring running game oriented offense. For all of the talk about Nick Foles and the offense last year... the Eagles run to pass ratio was 50:50.

There are issues with trying to run the ball that much. The good part of that is it will keep you in most games. Play a superior opponent and if you can manage to run the ball and run the clock down, at least you give yourself a chance to win.

But conversely, if you are playing an inferior opponent and still run the ball a lot and run down the clock....you're now allowing those inferior opponents to possibly win. That's what would often happen with coaches like Parcells and Fisher...play good teams really tough but keep poor teams in the game.

The other part of the hurry up is that it gives the defense less time to set up and disguise blitzes and coverages.

So in order to get plays off quickly so they can tally up more plays...they need to be very simplistic in their route patterns and design.

The Eagles also employ a lot of what is called 'package plays.' This is where they have the O-Line run block while the receivers run a pass pattern and the RB sets up for a running play. The QB then has the option (hence 'option read') to see if he wants to hand it off to the RB or use play action and throw the ball. If he hands it off to the RB, the O-Line is already run blocking for him and while the WR's are not actually blocking, they are running down field and taking the DB's with them.

If he wants to use play action and throw the ball, now he has the play action to freeze the defense a little and has WR's already running their routes.

But, it has to be simplistic in scheme for it to happen.

As Chip Kelly said, nothing he is doing is revolutionary nor is it all that exotic.







3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Week 1 thoughts:

Perhaps it was just the Patriots playing at Miami at 1pm (which is historically a tough game), but after watching the Fins play against the Cowboys in the 3rd preseason game and watching their defense against the Pats, I was impressed. The Fins offense looked pretty good as well if Mike Wallace could hold onto the ball. The Pats just didn't have their typical pep that they usually have. I predicted the Broncos and Pats would be the 2 division winners returning, but the Broncos look more impressive than the Pats at this point. So do the Colts who just have a lot of fight in them and a really good QB in Andrew Luck (who makes a few too many bad plays, but makes more great plays).

Uncharacteristic to see the Steelers give up such a big lead. I think they are still the AFC North winner.

Tennessee and KC made my picks look good. Houston doesn't have much of an offense, but their defense is still really good. JJ Watt is out of this world. It's going to be tough for Tennessee and Houston to overtake Indy because I was impressed by the heart of Indy versus Denver and how well they made adjustments on defense.

I thought DeMarcus Ware didn't play that well against the Colts, but he may have been told to keep Luck in the pocket and protect against the run. Aqib Talib and TJ Ward look like the better pickups if they stay healthy. Talib is really a sick cornerback to watch. I would be concerned about the Denver special teams though

Dallas looks like a sad joke. I was telling a friend of mine that I didn't have anything to lose this year. If they played well, it would prove me wrong. If they played like crap, it would expose Jason Garrett and Romo and finally get them out of Dallas. Part of the issues with Romo are Romo, but other parts are that Garrett doesn't want to coach him. The 2nd and 1 on the Niners 2 yard line was a great example. They were running it great...and Romo calls an audible...shotgun pass play. Romo gets sacked and then they end up kicking a field goal. My hope is that if they're going to be awful, be awful enough to get the 1st overall pick.

Washington's defense looked pretty good, but they were playing against a listless Houston offense. The Skins have 2 reliably good players on offense...Trent Williams and Alfred Morris. But if RG3 can't deliver the ball, that takes Jackson and Garcon out of the equation. The positive about this for me as a Cowboys fan is that Romo will be out of Dallas after 2015 because of his age. The Redskins will probably still hang on to RG3 because they will think about his rookie year and how much they invested in him.

I think Jacksonville exposed some of Philly's flaws on offense, but the Jags don't have the firepower on offense to put them away. I think the Eagles may win the division...but, at least it gives me hope that they won't do anything with it.

I didn't get to watch the Bears or Vikings. I think Green Bay is going to struggle to figure out their WR's and Dom Capers cannot stop a running QB to save his life.

Well, the Saints got to see the issues the Cowboys had with Rob Ryan. He's simply not the defensive mind that his brother Rex is. Carolina pulled out a hard fought victory despite not having Cam Newton. That should quell the idea of so many people picking the Bucs to make the playoffs this year.

This looks like Seattle's Super Bowl to lose. What's crazy is that I honestly believe that Richard Sherman is their THIRD best player on defense. I think Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner are better at their position and more important to their defense. And I think Cliff Avril is arguably as good and as important as Sherman. I also think the Green Bay game showed that this idea that 'the Seahawks hold every play' is ridiculous. They know how to play defense and they are, by miles...the best tackling team in the world. In order for them to not win the SB, I would guess that Russell Wilson would have to get hurt or Thomas or Wagner would have to get hurt.

I hope the Niners blow the relationship with Harbaugh off and the Cowboys get him. I'm sorry...but I love the guy as a coach. I actually like that he goes bonkers to the refs (and against the Cowboys he was usually right about the bad calls). It's a guy that competes for everything. The Niners had a bunch of off-the-field issues...yet were prepared to play. And when they built up a big 1st half lead...they ran down the clock and got the game over with. I don't think they have the ability to beat the Seahawks, but I think the Niners are being completely stupid if they don't keep him in SF.








3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

Jason Garrett is the new Wade Phillips. Romo never should have started if he wasn't ready to play. He threw passes that high school players would have known not to throw.

Giants to win the NFC East? I have no idea why you picked the Giants. I would have picked Dallas over the Giants and I detest Dallas (except I like Jerry Jones as an owner - he has balls and puts his own money up).

If you get Winston and a new coach things could turn around. Broncos and Seahawks looked like they didn't miss a beat. I wouldn't mind watching that re-match in the SB.

[Richie3Jack]

I actually didn't think the Giants looked all THAT bad against Detroit. They have some issues (mainly Will Beattie is literally unbelievable in his awfulness). But, I saw some things on offense that I liked what they were doing. Tough road game and I just feel that Coughlin will pull things together. And if Eli gets hot...look out.

Garrett isn't Wade. Wade is a much sharper X's and O's guy. Problem is he never had the heart to really stay on players throughout the season. His belief is that these guys are professionals and they should basically police and motivate themselves. That's why he's a great D-Coordinator...if you have a coach that can keep players in line and motivate the players...you've got a really good X's and O's guy in Wade. I think Wade is completely underrated from that perspective.

Garrett can stay on guys, but seems to be very concerned with politicking while on the job to keep his job. There were a lot of reported underhanded things that Garrett and Phillips would do to each other when they worked together. Wade ended up wanting to bring in Norv Turner to call the plays while Garrett was the O-Coordinator. And then Garrett tried to convince Jerry to hire Dom Capers to be the D-Coordinator. Then Wade fought back and said he wanted Mike Solari as the O-Line coach while Garrett wanted his friend Hudson Hauck.

There was an interview a few months ago with former Cowboys WR's Patrick Crayton and Jesse Holley. Neither had a good word to say about Garrett. Crayton seems to be looking for radio and TV work and knows that criticizing the Cowboys is his tick to a Dallas-area radio or TV gig.

But, Holley is just a hard-working guy with no chip on his shoulder and just did his business. Holley claimed that Garrett was sabotaging Wade in 2010 (Wade's final year) as they were still using the preseason playbook under Wade. Then Wade got fired and the playbook opened way up according to Holley.

So with Romo, I think Garrett knows the deal...his job is secure if he can keep Romo happy. And they have magically become BFF's with them being seen together often (including at a Duke basketball game).

I think the positives about Garrett is that he generally does stay on players and gets them to behave. Particularly on the offensive side of the ball. I actually think Dez Bryant's personality, leadership, being a teammate and a good person has impressed me more than anything. And I don't see that happening if Wade was still the coach.

Garrett is also worlds better at handling the Dallas media than Wade. I actually felt sorry for Wade when writers are actually printing that Wade was a 'fat retard' in the paper. Or the time when Steve Dennis got up in Wade's face because Wade would not call the team a bunch of losers (this while they were 9-5 in the hunt to win the NFC East in 2009...which they did end up winning).

While I love Parcells, I don't think he handled the Dallas media well at all when the team signed T.O. I have it on good authority that Parcells wanted T.O. but he also wanted to reign him in a bit. But, I don't think Parcells understood that he just needed to nip it in the bud and say 'I wanted Terrell Owens and I'm glad we got him on our team.'

Instead, Parcells tried to reign in T.O. by trying to treat him like everybody else and the media treated that as Parcells didn't want T.O. And then we were getting Press Conferences where the reporters would ask T.O. questions to Parcells for 1-hour straight. There was one time when Parcells said that there would be no T.O. questions because he spent 1-hour the day before answering questions on T.O. and the press notably groaned like Parcells was being the unreasonable party-pooper.

Garrett knows how to handle the Dallas media. It's really his strongest suit as a coach. And I think it's ultra-important to deal with the Cowboys media if you're going to be the HC in Dallas because as Parcells said...they microwave stars. Guys start getting a big head and thinking they are great and stop working hard. Then there are the distractions that the Dallas media tries to create. Lots of baited questions and lots of stories that are reported to gain attention but end up being found to be outright lies.

So a coach like Garrett who understands that and stays on players is helpful. Problem is that the guy doesn't know how to coach.

Jimmy Johnson worked because he was fantastic motivator and he stockpiled picks. Stockpiling picks is not only beneficial financially, but it serves as a good motivator when you have young guys competing with veterans.

I don't think Jimmy was great at handling the press. But, his ability to understand players and how to motivate them along with an innovative defensive scheme and stockpiling picks really worked out great for him.





3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

Jerry Jones loves the press and creates some of his own political messes with the press and his team being so popular. I'm not sure what new coach can do anything with that team. The reality is JJ needs a new GM and I doubt he'll replace himself.

Jimmy J also created a workable draft board that was years ahead of other teams and a huge competitive advantage. If you draft well almost any coach will look good.

[Richie3Jack]

I don't seriously see how anybody can defend Garrett and solely blame Jerry Jones (outside of being the guy that hired Garrett). I think Garrett has gotten basically everything he's wanted. And remember, he was the O-Coordinator in Dallas in 2007. He had no playcalling experience and his only coaching experience was as the QB coach at Miami and Tampa (although Saban wanted him to be the O-Coordinator at Alabama).

So despite giving Garrett the O-C job when he had questionable qualifications he also gave him the HC job despite having a spotty record as an O-C and having no Head Coaching experience. And despite that...the personnel decisions have really been Garrett's or very Garrett oriented.

Garrett was the one that hired Rob Ryan. And Garrett was the one that wanted Monte Kiffin (knew Kiffin from his days at Tampa). Garrett was the one that also wanted Rich Bassacia (also from his TB days). They hired Mike Woicik to be the Strength and Conditioning coach, something Garrett wanted since he knew Woicik when he was the S&C coach at Dallas during his playing days. However, the previous S&C coach, Joe Juraczek...who did a helluva job keeping players healthy...had tried to commit suicide in 2010.

Bill Callahan was a Garrett hire. So was firing WR coach Ray Sherman and hiring Derek Dooley to take over. He obviously didn't want to get rid of his brother who was coaching TE's, but Mike Pope has done a much better job and was a Garrett hire anyway.

Garrett constantly talks about getting the 'right kind of guy' when it comes players that do things 'the Cowboys way' and are basically professional. The drafts have been filled with these players. The ones that have not worked out are mostly on defense and were really persuaded by Rob Ryan to pick up (Brandon Carr, Mo Claiborne and Bruce Carter).

From 2007-2009 Wade Phillips went 33-15 with the team. So, it's not like they can't win with Jerry.

For me, I want to see Jerry step down as a GM because:

1) His drinking concerns me.

2) I think he is stretched too thin between all of the duties he has

3) Watching old NFL Films of Tex Schramm you see a GM that was not a player personnel guy. That was handled by Gil Brandt. But Schramm was an extremely innovative and open minded individual that always found ways to provide resources to Brandt and Landry to put the Cowboys ahead of the curve. I don't think Jerry's brain has that innovation and open mindedness. Few do.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

In the history of the NFL, teams that have started off 0-2 have only made the playoffs 12% of the time.

Soooo....

That puts the following teams well behind the 8-ball:

INDIANAPOLIS
NEW ORLEANS
KANSAS CITY
Jacksonville
Oakland
NY Giants
Tampa Bay

The teams in CAPS made the playoffs last year.

I do have a gut feeling that 1 of these teams will make the playoffs. And that is likely New Orleans because I do believe they are that good.

Using my 'parity puzzle', I will predict the probably playoff teams based on only the first 2 weeks:

Buffalo
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
San Diego

Philadelphia
Carolina
Arizona
Chicago
Atlanta

Ummm....

Well, it's too early to tell


Some thoughts from watching week 2:

Nobody has the lucky horseshoe and 4-leaf clover planted squarely up their ass like the New England Patriots. They are 0-1 and facing a Vikings team that just dominated the Rams at St. Louis. Then Adrian Peterson is indicted for child abuse (which was horrific to see the photos) and is de-activated for that game. How many players have been suspended for child abuse in the league? I'm not saying Peterson should not have been suspended...but, it's amazing how out of the blue players get injured or suspended right when they are facing the Patriots. And this has been going on for the last 15 years.


Early in the offseason I had targeted the Bills as one of my 4 teams to make the jump to the playoffs, but couldn't pull the trigger. I'm still not that confident given they have EJ Manuel at QB. But, I'm a big fan of Marrone. And I remember the first game he coached at Syracuse how the defense made a 180 degree turnaround. Syracuse went from being an undersized team that was one of the worst tackling teams I had ever seen in college football...to an undersized team that tackled superbly. My point is that when I watch the Bills defense I see more of the same and for all of the criticism Marrone got about making his practices tough...he seems to know what he is doing.


I really liked the Steelers' chances this year, but I think they have some major issues. I thought Polamalu looked horrendous and yet Tomlin yells at Mike Mitchell for trying to make a split second play where it was questionable that it was an illegal hit. The offense doesn't seem to fit the Steelers and in particular Roethlisberger. Le'Veon Bell looked quite good though.


I thought Tennessee looked quite poor against Dallas. They had no answer for Dallas' running game and Jake Locker had a 60 QB rating against the awful Dallas defense. The hope for me as a Cowboys fan is that it was the best managed game by the Cowboys in the Garrett era. They ran the ball and ran it well and kept running it even when the Titans had some stretches of stopping it. It kept the Dallas defense off the field and Romo did not play well, but he didn't play awful and didn't turn the ball over. With Romo...less is more. Always has been.


I really dig Mike McCoy. The Chargers scored at will against the Seahawks. Really one of the sharpest offensive minds in all of football.


The NFL and the rules on the field become too much like a courtroom rather than common sense. Ware makes a sack on Alex Smith whose arm goes forward in response to having a 260 pound player hitting him at full speed. That wasn't a throw and was not in the spirit of what a pass attempt is. Yet, there's Mike Carey at CBS (and he was a TERRIBLE referee) make points like a tax lawyer at a pre-trial hearing how Smith technically made a pass attempt.


I'm far more afraid of Kirk Cousins than I am RG3. Although Cousins had wide open throws all game long.

Okay, I'll admit it...the Giants suck.

I do get some joy out of Rob Ryan's defenses failing at New Orleans. The last pass that Hoyer made to a wide open WR (can't remember who) was perfect Rob Ryan defense. And I actually like the guy...but he's nowhere near the defensive mind that his father and his brother are.

Can't believe the Niners lost that game because I turned the game off after thinking the Bears stood no chance. It's going to be tough to beat the Seahawks because they will likely go 8-0 at home. But, Arizona appears to have a chance.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Week 3 thoughts…

Good lord does Tampa Bay suck. They just got the doors blown off of them by the Falcons who went 4-12 last year. It just goes to show how much value a quality, veteran QB is to this league as the Falcons look primed to take over the NFC South.

I haven’t watched any Saints games for any lengthy period of time this season. It appears their offense is not quite firing on all cylinders and I think that protects Rob Ryan who is a nice D-Coordinator to have with the lead, but troubling when the game is close because he gambles so much. It actually makes me believe the Cowboys have a chance on Sunday night.

Cam Newton looks really slow out there.

The Steelers started to come alive this week and Jarvis Jones got injured. Can’t remember the name of the Steelers NT, but I was impressed by him. Big, long and strong arms. I think arm length is a critical physical attribute in football because it is pretty much an asset at almost every position and guys like him, DeMarcus Ware, Charles Tillman and Rolando McClain has extra long arms.

I’ve said this before the season starts…I believe the organizations that are most patient with their rookie QB will reap the rewards down the road. So far, the Browns are the only ones to not really use their rookie QB and I think in the end they will reap the rewards the most. Jacksonville had to put in Bortles when you’re getting killed 30-0. I think the Raiders made a mistake starting Derek Carr and I think the Vikings are making a mistake with Bridgewater. So that means to me that Cleveland and Jacksonville are going to reap the benefits.

EJ Manuel blows.

Hard to believe that Philadelphia can sustain this pace. From 1983 to 2005 each team that WENT to the Super Bowl (winner and loser) were in the top-8 in points allowed. That changed since 2006 with how the rules and offensive philosophies changed, but I still think not allowing points is a critical part of winning the Super Bowl. And it usually means your defense is on the field for too long and is likely to get more injured. Face a good team with a good defense in the playoffs and then you can have some real troubles.

The Eagles can thank their lucky stars that the Saints gave away Darren Sproles. He’s basically saving the offense right now.

Although I do think Nick Foles is a very good QB. I can’t think of the QB he really reminds me of, but I think he sees the field well, understands the fundamentals of the situation and throws a good ball.

I think Kirk Cousins is better than RG3, but you can see that his lack of arm strength hurts him. And once he plays a good defense I will be hard pressed to believe he will play well.

I still say don’t count out the Giants.

Dallas was extremely lucky to win that game. Going down 21-0 on the road rarely equates to pulling out a victory. Although they are showing the power of running the ball effectively and not getting pass happy. They started out the first quarter throwing the ball 7 times and running it 3 times. By then they got down to 21-0 shortly after. Then they ran the ball 24 times to throwing it 16 times, despite being down 21 points on the road…and ended up going on a 34-10 tear to win the game. Unless you have a Brady, Rodgers, Peyton or Brees, you really have to manage the playcalling on offense in order to preserve the defense

The Patriots look weak on offense. I think the league has created defenses to stop the crossing patterns and the pick plays and they don’t have the deep threat to counter that.

I also think this is true because when you watch the Denver vs. Seattle game they were stuffing those plays and it wasn’t until Peyton started to deliver the ball down field in the last drive before regulation that they scored with relative ease.

After week 3, it now looks like the following teams will make the playoffs (based on the parity puzzle)

AFC

Buffalo
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (I think the Ray Rice situation will wear them down)
Houston
San Diego
Denver

NFC

Philadelphia
Seattle
Detroit
Arizona
Atlanta
Chicago






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Most people will talk about 'what a difference a year makes' with Dallas' victory over the Saints as last year the Saints blew them out the doors and never punted once.

But to me it is 'what a difference 3 weeks makes.' Dallas looked like a team lucky to go 6-10 and it appeared that Romo was likely done with after this season (although the Cowboys are basically forced to keep him thru 2015 because of the cap hit).

I remember in the Niners game in week 1 the Cowboys called a timeout and went over with Dan Bailey how they wanted to do the onside kick. Bailey kicked a little pooch kick instead of kicking the ball into the turf and watching it bounce high. The Niners easily recovered the ball and you could see the team just look at Garrett in disgust with the 'what are we doing here??'

Fast forward 3 weeks later and the Cowboys look every bit as dangerous of a team as you can find in the NFL. They have 'committed to the running game' and have ran the ball extremely well. They have kept their defense off the field and the defense is starting to over-perform. And you see players going to the sidelines with an upbeat attitude talking to Scott Linehan who is smiling and giving off the vibe of 'see, football is not all that hard. We just run the ball and then when they give our WR's single coverage, we'll throw it to them. Piece of cake.'

A few years ago I talked to SiriusXM radio host and former NFL scout Pat Kirwan about the passing game in the NFL. He told me that every QB he talked to wanted to have more receivers instead of more blockers, especially when facing blitzes. They just didn't like the idea of having less options of people to throw to.

The Cowboys have instead used more of an old school and ironically Joe Gibbs approach. Run the ball frequently and if you're facing a blitz, bring in more blockers to give Romo more time to throw. Now they don't always do it that way. They like to spread them out and throw from an empty backfield on 2nd down, but in the era of pass happy offenses and spread formations, the Cowboys are getting it done by running the ball and protecting the QB. To me, not only do I prefer protecting the QB because that is something Gibbs' teams did, but it is how Buddy Ryan decided to become a blitzing D-Coordinator and created the 46 defense...he was told by YA Tittle that if he had time to throw he could complete any pass. It was when he didn't have time to throw that he got into trouble.


With that, the Eagles looked terrible on offense with their spread formations. They have ran the ball terribly this year and I think the league is keying in on LeSean McCoy with the Eagles' O-Line having been injured. The only reason the Niners game was close was due to all of the gaffes with the Niners special teams. Teams that get a pick 6 go on to win 80% of the time. The Eagles had a blocked punt and a punt return TD and couldn't win the game. They were truly dominated.


But, don't count out the G-Men. I was apparently the only person that saw some promise in their offense in their loss to the Lions, but now they have come back and beat a 3-1 Texans team and dominated divisional rival Washington at Washington.


The Steelers continue to disappoint. They appeared to be dominating Tampa in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and then fell apart. Bell has a weird, but productive running style and Blount is killing it, but Todd Haley just can't quite seem to get the offense to rack up enough points to close things out and the defense has been a letdown.


The Packers got their act back together. Trestman runs a fairly productive offense that has some cool plays, but his defense is still very poor.

Probably the other biggest team on the rise is the Ravens who dominated Carolina. And I think Steve Smith destroying his former team was about the most predictable thing in sports.


Anyway, here's how the 'parity puzzle' playoff teams look like right now.

New England
Cincinnati
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
San Diego

Detroit
Atlanta
Arizona
Seattle
Dallas
Philadelphia






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Here's a look at the current playoff odds from FO.com:

www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Their current playoff picture looks like this:

Buffalo
Cincinnati
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
San Diego


Philadelphia
Green Bay
Detroit
Seattle
Arizona
Atlanta


This gives some early precedent to the 'parity puzzle' coming into fruition.

It has 4 teams with losing records in the previous year (Buffalo, Houston, Atlanta and Detroit).

It has 5 of the 8 division winners returning (Cincinnati, Denver, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Seattle).

I had only 4 of the 8 division winners returning. But, I can still see any of those division winners having trouble making the playoffs down the road.

After this weekend, I will have my 'win projections.'






3JACK