Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 2, 2015 11:49:22 GMT -5
The craziest of crazy years in the 2014 NFL season. From 1999 to 2011, the NFL averaged 4 playoff teams a season that had losing records in the prior year. They also averaged 48% of the division winners making the postseason the following year (roughly 4 out of 8). In fact, only once since 1999 did we have more than 5 division winners return to the postseason (2012 when we had 6).
THIS is what ‘parity’ in the NFL means. Teams with losing records can make the playoffs and teams that win the division often miss the playoffs the next season.
But 2014 was the most ‘un-parity like’ season of them all. 7 of the 8 division winners returned to the postseason. The one that didn’t, Philadelphia, still posted a 10-6 season and almost made it to the postseason. And only 1 team with a losing record in 2013 made the playoffs; the Detroit Lions.
We are starting to see less parity in the league give that we broke the 5 division winners in the postseason the following year just 2 seasons ago. And this season we had 7 go to the playoffs again. I wish I had the time to really get into why this is happening.
I tend to think the league is a bit smarter as a whole. We don’t see many Super Bowl contenders think that they just need 1 missing piece the following season and trade the world for that missing piece.
I also think that we are reaching a league of competent QB’s, but nobody quite at the heights of Peyton Manning (drafted in 1999), Tom Brady (drafted in 2000) and Aaron Rodgers (drafted in 2004). Even before this season you could throw Drew Brees in there (drafted in 2001) and now you could throw Tony Romo with his highest QB rating in the league (came into the league in 2003 and started in 2006). And you have Roethlisberger as well (drafted in 2004). All guys that came into the league over 10 years ago.
As good as Andrew Luck is, he doesn’t quite appear to be on the level of a young Brady or Manning. And I don’t think he has the skills to be as good as Rodgers. Perhaps he can be as good as Romo and Roethlisberger are now, but it will require him to have a good running game and defense like Romo and Roethlisberger have now.
Instead, there’s not much in the way of QB’s these days. It seems like they are good enough to be ready to start right away and not embarrass themselves, but they seem to have a lower ceiling. As far as your younger QB’s go, the best ones I can think of are:
1. Russell Wilson
2. Andrew Luck
3. Andy Dalton
4. Matt Ryan
5. Ryan Tannehill
6. Cam Newton
7. Matthew Stafford
8. Nick Foles
9. Derek Carr
And I think Wilson is really great, but very flawed and stoppable. If the Seahawks had an average defense and didn’t have Marshawn Lynch, I don’t think Wilson is enough to keep them on the pace they are on.
And out of all of those QB’s, I sorta like Tannehill and Carr the best. But, Tannehill has a questionable O-Line and receiving corp and Carr has almost nothing surrounding him.
Eventually Peyton and Brady will have to retire and that should lighten their stranglehold on their divisions. But until they are gone I think the system of parity in the NFL could be in flux.
Here’s the projected win totals for each team for the end of the season:
1. New England Patriots: 12.72
2. Green Bay Packers: 12.28
3. Denver Broncos: 11.50
4. Houston Texans: 11.00
5. Dallas Cowboys: 10.74
6. Baltimore Ravens: 10.54
7. Seattle Seahawks: 10.31
8. Buffalo Bills: 10.25
9. Arizona Cardinals: 10.04
10. Cincinnati Bengals: 10.02
11. Indianapolis Colts: 9.17
12. Detroit Lions: 9.10
13. Kansas City Chiefs: 8.82
14. Cleveland Browns: 8.67
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.53
16. Atlanta Falcons: 8.18
17. New York Giants: 8.17
18. San Diego Chargers: 8.06
19. Miami Dolphins: 7.92
20. Philadelphia Eagles: 7.89
21. San Francisco 49ers: 7.81
22. St. Louis Rams: 6.90
23. Carolina Panthers: 6.87
24. New Orleans Saints: 6.62
25. Minnesota Vikings: 6.58
26. Chicago Bears: 5.13
27. Oakland Raiders: 4.76
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3.87
29. Tennessee Titans: 3.81
30. New York Jets: 3.38
31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.98
32. Washington Redskins: 2.78
Here’s is a look at the preseason predictions I made:
The Pats did exactly what I predicted and they were the only ones from the AFC East to make the playoffs. The Bills were better than I thought, although I had considered them as a playoff team. I don’t trust Buffalo and in true Buffalo fashion, they lose their HC who gave them their first winning record in 11 seasons. The Jets had terrible metrics from the previous season and somehow managed to win 8 games in 2013. I figured that wasn’t going to happen again.
Part of the issue with parity mostly stems from the AFC and in particular, the AFC North and the AFC West where either the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals or the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos all make the playoffs. Cleveland was better than I thought they were, but in the end they still had QB problems.
I’m about to stop ever predicting success for Tennessee or Ken Whisenhunt. Yeesh.
Houston did go 9-7, but actually were projected to win 11 games. I’ll have to check and see where and why there was a discrepancy. If the Texans find a QB next season, they could overtake the Colts.
Indianapolis won the division, but were only projected at 9.17 victories. So, I think I had the right idea in them slipping a bit.
The Chargers disappointed a bit, but were still in contention to make the playoffs. The Broncos went 12-4, but are being done in by offensive fumbles.
Going into the season I thought this was the perfect litmus test for any coach with the Cowboys. I thought they had a vastly talented offense, but a very suspect defense. I felt a ‘good coach’ could go 10-6 with them by managing the game, controlling the offense with the run game while scoring a lot of points. That would keep the defense off the field and put them in favorable situations. If they went 8-8 again, then we should know that Garrett was just an average coach and he needs to go. And if they go 6-10, like I predicted, then he is just not a good coach.
I thought they *could* go 10-6, I just didn’t think we had the coaching for it. And boy was I wrong. Of course, they did almost exactly what I said they needed to do. Less is more with Tony Romo. When he throws less, the offense moves the ball better because it opens up the big pass play. When he audibles less, the offense is more efficient because there is not as much confusion. They threw the ball less and audibled less and Romo had the best season of his career despite coming off a back injury that he injured during the season.
The Giants went 6-10, but were projected to go with 8.17 wins. I had a feeling that Washington was awful, but gave them credit for hiring Jay Gruden and now I think Gruden is worse than I originally thought. It was hard to get a read on the Eagles and Nick Foles. They ended the season at 7.88 projected wins, less than the Giants. Not sure how long Chip Kelly’s scheme will hold on unless he makes some alterations.
Sometimes I really hate the football media.
Mainly in instances like the Bears where they praise a particular coach for whatever reason and then I start to buy into the hype. ESPN likes to do this a lot with certain coaches and players. For all of the talk about how bad Mark Sanchez is, before he was drafted they hyped him up like he was a Create-a-Player on Madden and then acted like the Jets won the Super Bowl when they drafted him. So that’s why I hedged my bets on the Bears.
I couldn’t pull the trigger on the Jim Caldwell led Lions, even if they were the only team with a losing record in 2013 to make the playoffs this year. And I think for good reason as their offense isn’t very good despite having Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron and Joique Bell.
Minnesota finished where I predicted and their projected win total was 6.58 wins…so a good job there.
The Saints were the biggest disappointment for me. I just couldn’t get over how bad their team looked even though they were in the midst of winning the division.
The Falcons were at a projected 8.18 wins, but couldn’t come away with the division. Perhaps some of that was thrown off by that lopsided victory against the Bucs. They did finish with a +5 turnover margin and were 10th in offensive QB rating. So something tells me that some games fell thru their fingers that shouldn’t have and that was enough to fire Mike Smith.
I watched the Bucs play a little and while their QB’s weren’t great by any means, they had no O-Line to protect them. I think the QB’s get all of the attention in Tampa and they’ll likely end up drafting a QB with the 1st overall pick, but they O-Line is quite bad.
I figured the Arizona defensive prowess had to crumble sooner or later. Defensive performance is very ‘volatile’ in the NFL. You can be great one year and terrible the next on defense. With offense, it is much more stable and that is due to the QB position and its importance to the offense’s efficiency. I do think that sooner or later that Arizona defense has to regress.
As a Cowboys fan, I consider the Niners letting Harbaugh go as a victory for future Cowboys teams. Nothing like a coach who takes over a team that had 8 losing seasons in a row going, 46-82 (0.359) and turns then into a 44-19 (0.698) in four seasons without a losing record, a Super Bowl loss and 2 NFC Conference Championship losses (1 playing at Seattle the other against the Giants where they lost on a fumbled punt return).
That being said, I think Harbaugh going to Michigan was almost as stupid.
Nothing against Michigan fans…but, if Harbaugh went to another NFL team and failed…he would still have his pick of what college teams he wants to go to. But, if he goes to Michigan and fails…he’s pretty much got nowhere else to go. I just think he had plenty of time to get another college head coaching gig. With that said, I wish him well.
Absolutely a possibility. Although I think the Patriots go to the Super Bowl.
Perhaps. Although Romo’s numbers are better and I would consider DeMarco Murray as well.
Started every game, but had 0 INT’s, only 3 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. They say it takes a year or two for a player to get acclimated in LeBeau’s scheme. Bad pick here as this will go to JJ Watt.
It could happen, but I think it will probably go to Bruce Arians although I think it should go to Jason Garrett
I was correct on Ryan and Allen. Marrone just quit. I would feel sorry for the Bills fans if Adam Schefter didn’t mention that Marrone had this clause in his contract and there was a *possibility* that Marrone could opt out and Bills fans were *begging* for him to leave. Then when Marrone left, they called him ‘gutless.’ I don’t think of it in the same sense as a Bobby Petrino situation. I do think Marrone didn’t like the idea of the new ownership talking about his job being on the line after only being there for 1 year and being left a mess. And then he still takes the team to their first winning season in 11 years and they are still bitching.
There was a lot of talk about Marrone being ‘thin skinned’ with the media and that he won’t survive the NYC media. But there is a big difference. In Buffalo, the Bills are really the only game in town. In NYC, the Jets are no better than 3rd in terms of importance as the Yankees and Giants have much more of the spotlight on them. And if the Mets weren’t such a disaster as of recent years, I think that moves the Jets to no better than 4th on the list.
Glad to see Rivera win the division because knowing Jerry Richardson, he will fire him next season if the Panthers go 10-6 and don’t make the playoffs. Just the kind of owner that he is.
This leaves out Harbaugh going to Michigan, Smith getting fired in Atlanta and Trestman in Chicago.
3JACK
THIS is what ‘parity’ in the NFL means. Teams with losing records can make the playoffs and teams that win the division often miss the playoffs the next season.
But 2014 was the most ‘un-parity like’ season of them all. 7 of the 8 division winners returned to the postseason. The one that didn’t, Philadelphia, still posted a 10-6 season and almost made it to the postseason. And only 1 team with a losing record in 2013 made the playoffs; the Detroit Lions.
We are starting to see less parity in the league give that we broke the 5 division winners in the postseason the following year just 2 seasons ago. And this season we had 7 go to the playoffs again. I wish I had the time to really get into why this is happening.
I tend to think the league is a bit smarter as a whole. We don’t see many Super Bowl contenders think that they just need 1 missing piece the following season and trade the world for that missing piece.
I also think that we are reaching a league of competent QB’s, but nobody quite at the heights of Peyton Manning (drafted in 1999), Tom Brady (drafted in 2000) and Aaron Rodgers (drafted in 2004). Even before this season you could throw Drew Brees in there (drafted in 2001) and now you could throw Tony Romo with his highest QB rating in the league (came into the league in 2003 and started in 2006). And you have Roethlisberger as well (drafted in 2004). All guys that came into the league over 10 years ago.
As good as Andrew Luck is, he doesn’t quite appear to be on the level of a young Brady or Manning. And I don’t think he has the skills to be as good as Rodgers. Perhaps he can be as good as Romo and Roethlisberger are now, but it will require him to have a good running game and defense like Romo and Roethlisberger have now.
Instead, there’s not much in the way of QB’s these days. It seems like they are good enough to be ready to start right away and not embarrass themselves, but they seem to have a lower ceiling. As far as your younger QB’s go, the best ones I can think of are:
1. Russell Wilson
2. Andrew Luck
3. Andy Dalton
4. Matt Ryan
5. Ryan Tannehill
6. Cam Newton
7. Matthew Stafford
8. Nick Foles
9. Derek Carr
And I think Wilson is really great, but very flawed and stoppable. If the Seahawks had an average defense and didn’t have Marshawn Lynch, I don’t think Wilson is enough to keep them on the pace they are on.
And out of all of those QB’s, I sorta like Tannehill and Carr the best. But, Tannehill has a questionable O-Line and receiving corp and Carr has almost nothing surrounding him.
Eventually Peyton and Brady will have to retire and that should lighten their stranglehold on their divisions. But until they are gone I think the system of parity in the NFL could be in flux.
Here’s the projected win totals for each team for the end of the season:
1. New England Patriots: 12.72
2. Green Bay Packers: 12.28
3. Denver Broncos: 11.50
4. Houston Texans: 11.00
5. Dallas Cowboys: 10.74
6. Baltimore Ravens: 10.54
7. Seattle Seahawks: 10.31
8. Buffalo Bills: 10.25
9. Arizona Cardinals: 10.04
10. Cincinnati Bengals: 10.02
11. Indianapolis Colts: 9.17
12. Detroit Lions: 9.10
13. Kansas City Chiefs: 8.82
14. Cleveland Browns: 8.67
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.53
16. Atlanta Falcons: 8.18
17. New York Giants: 8.17
18. San Diego Chargers: 8.06
19. Miami Dolphins: 7.92
20. Philadelphia Eagles: 7.89
21. San Francisco 49ers: 7.81
22. St. Louis Rams: 6.90
23. Carolina Panthers: 6.87
24. New Orleans Saints: 6.62
25. Minnesota Vikings: 6.58
26. Chicago Bears: 5.13
27. Oakland Raiders: 4.76
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3.87
29. Tennessee Titans: 3.81
30. New York Jets: 3.38
31. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2.98
32. Washington Redskins: 2.78
Here’s is a look at the preseason predictions I made:
AFC EAST
New England 12-4
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 6-10
NY Jets 6-10
New England 12-4
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 6-10
NY Jets 6-10
The Pats did exactly what I predicted and they were the only ones from the AFC East to make the playoffs. The Bills were better than I thought, although I had considered them as a playoff team. I don’t trust Buffalo and in true Buffalo fashion, they lose their HC who gave them their first winning record in 11 seasons. The Jets had terrible metrics from the previous season and somehow managed to win 8 games in 2013. I figured that wasn’t going to happen again.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 3-13
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 3-13
Part of the issue with parity mostly stems from the AFC and in particular, the AFC North and the AFC West where either the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals or the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos all make the playoffs. Cleveland was better than I thought they were, but in the end they still had QB problems.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee 9-7
Houston 9-7
Indianapolis 7-9
Jacksonville 4-12
Tennessee 9-7
Houston 9-7
Indianapolis 7-9
Jacksonville 4-12
I’m about to stop ever predicting success for Tennessee or Ken Whisenhunt. Yeesh.
Houston did go 9-7, but actually were projected to win 11 games. I’ll have to check and see where and why there was a discrepancy. If the Texans find a QB next season, they could overtake the Colts.
Indianapolis won the division, but were only projected at 9.17 victories. So, I think I had the right idea in them slipping a bit.
AFC WEST
Denver 13-3
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 5-11
Denver 13-3
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 5-11
The Chargers disappointed a bit, but were still in contention to make the playoffs. The Broncos went 12-4, but are being done in by offensive fumbles.
NFC EAST
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 6-10
Dallas 6-10
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 6-10
Dallas 6-10
Going into the season I thought this was the perfect litmus test for any coach with the Cowboys. I thought they had a vastly talented offense, but a very suspect defense. I felt a ‘good coach’ could go 10-6 with them by managing the game, controlling the offense with the run game while scoring a lot of points. That would keep the defense off the field and put them in favorable situations. If they went 8-8 again, then we should know that Garrett was just an average coach and he needs to go. And if they go 6-10, like I predicted, then he is just not a good coach.
I thought they *could* go 10-6, I just didn’t think we had the coaching for it. And boy was I wrong. Of course, they did almost exactly what I said they needed to do. Less is more with Tony Romo. When he throws less, the offense moves the ball better because it opens up the big pass play. When he audibles less, the offense is more efficient because there is not as much confusion. They threw the ball less and audibled less and Romo had the best season of his career despite coming off a back injury that he injured during the season.
The Giants went 6-10, but were projected to go with 8.17 wins. I had a feeling that Washington was awful, but gave them credit for hiring Jay Gruden and now I think Gruden is worse than I originally thought. It was hard to get a read on the Eagles and Nick Foles. They ended the season at 7.88 projected wins, less than the Giants. Not sure how long Chip Kelly’s scheme will hold on unless he makes some alterations.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay 12-4
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 7-9
Green Bay 12-4
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 7-9
Sometimes I really hate the football media.
Mainly in instances like the Bears where they praise a particular coach for whatever reason and then I start to buy into the hype. ESPN likes to do this a lot with certain coaches and players. For all of the talk about how bad Mark Sanchez is, before he was drafted they hyped him up like he was a Create-a-Player on Madden and then acted like the Jets won the Super Bowl when they drafted him. So that’s why I hedged my bets on the Bears.
I couldn’t pull the trigger on the Jim Caldwell led Lions, even if they were the only team with a losing record in 2013 to make the playoffs this year. And I think for good reason as their offense isn’t very good despite having Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron and Joique Bell.
Minnesota finished where I predicted and their projected win total was 6.58 wins…so a good job there.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 7-9
Carolina 6-10
New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 7-9
Carolina 6-10
The Saints were the biggest disappointment for me. I just couldn’t get over how bad their team looked even though they were in the midst of winning the division.
The Falcons were at a projected 8.18 wins, but couldn’t come away with the division. Perhaps some of that was thrown off by that lopsided victory against the Bucs. They did finish with a +5 turnover margin and were 10th in offensive QB rating. So something tells me that some games fell thru their fingers that shouldn’t have and that was enough to fire Mike Smith.
I watched the Bucs play a little and while their QB’s weren’t great by any means, they had no O-Line to protect them. I think the QB’s get all of the attention in Tampa and they’ll likely end up drafting a QB with the 1st overall pick, but they O-Line is quite bad.
NFC WEST
Seattle 10-6
San Francisco 10-6
St. Louis 8-8
Arizona 5-11
Seattle 10-6
San Francisco 10-6
St. Louis 8-8
Arizona 5-11
I figured the Arizona defensive prowess had to crumble sooner or later. Defensive performance is very ‘volatile’ in the NFL. You can be great one year and terrible the next on defense. With offense, it is much more stable and that is due to the QB position and its importance to the offense’s efficiency. I do think that sooner or later that Arizona defense has to regress.
As a Cowboys fan, I consider the Niners letting Harbaugh go as a victory for future Cowboys teams. Nothing like a coach who takes over a team that had 8 losing seasons in a row going, 46-82 (0.359) and turns then into a 44-19 (0.698) in four seasons without a losing record, a Super Bowl loss and 2 NFC Conference Championship losses (1 playing at Seattle the other against the Giants where they lost on a fumbled punt return).
That being said, I think Harbaugh going to Michigan was almost as stupid.
Nothing against Michigan fans…but, if Harbaugh went to another NFL team and failed…he would still have his pick of what college teams he wants to go to. But, if he goes to Michigan and fails…he’s pretty much got nowhere else to go. I just think he had plenty of time to get another college head coaching gig. With that said, I wish him well.
Super Bowl – Green Bay 31 Denver 13
Absolutely a possibility. Although I think the Patriots go to the Super Bowl.
OFFENSIVE MVP: Aaron Rodgers QB (Green Bay)
Perhaps. Although Romo’s numbers are better and I would consider DeMarco Murray as well.
DEFENSIVE MVP: Mike Mitchell S (Pittsburgh)
Started every game, but had 0 INT’s, only 3 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. They say it takes a year or two for a player to get acclimated in LeBeau’s scheme. Bad pick here as this will go to JJ Watt.
COACH OF THE YEAR: Mike McCarthey (Green Bay)
It could happen, but I think it will probably go to Bruce Arians although I think it should go to Jason Garrett
COACH FIRINGS: Doug Marrone (Buffalo), Rex Ryan (NY Jets), Dennis Allen (Oakland), Jason Garrett (Dallas), Ron Rivera (Carolina
I was correct on Ryan and Allen. Marrone just quit. I would feel sorry for the Bills fans if Adam Schefter didn’t mention that Marrone had this clause in his contract and there was a *possibility* that Marrone could opt out and Bills fans were *begging* for him to leave. Then when Marrone left, they called him ‘gutless.’ I don’t think of it in the same sense as a Bobby Petrino situation. I do think Marrone didn’t like the idea of the new ownership talking about his job being on the line after only being there for 1 year and being left a mess. And then he still takes the team to their first winning season in 11 years and they are still bitching.
There was a lot of talk about Marrone being ‘thin skinned’ with the media and that he won’t survive the NYC media. But there is a big difference. In Buffalo, the Bills are really the only game in town. In NYC, the Jets are no better than 3rd in terms of importance as the Yankees and Giants have much more of the spotlight on them. And if the Mets weren’t such a disaster as of recent years, I think that moves the Jets to no better than 4th on the list.
Glad to see Rivera win the division because knowing Jerry Richardson, he will fire him next season if the Panthers go 10-6 and don’t make the playoffs. Just the kind of owner that he is.
This leaves out Harbaugh going to Michigan, Smith getting fired in Atlanta and Trestman in Chicago.
3JACK