Jordan vs. Tiger

[mchepp]

Hi Richie,

Recently Poulter said that Jordan could be the best putter ever.

in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/27/golf-spieth-poulter-idINKCN0Q11SB20150727?rpc=401

Sure, Poulter is probably looking for some headlines because his game isn't currently getting them, but the comment got me thinking. Is Jordan better than Tiger (the Tiger of 2000)? I remember Tiger making everything. I see Jordan missing 3 footers and putting off greens. I never saw Tiger doing that kinda thing. In 2000 there were no strokes gained statistics but is there any way statistically we can compare them? Who is better?

[Richie3Jack]

Spieth is not the best putter ever. What's crazy is Poulter claims that he is statistically the best putter ever and the statistics simply do not bear out that way. He's not even the best putter on Tour right now.

Here's how he ranks:

3-5 feet: 170th
5-10 feet: 87th
10-15 feet: 83rd
15-25 feet: 1st
25+ feet: 7th

Putts Gained: 6th

Last year he ranked 20th in Putts Gained.

I know Poulter works with a statistician by the name of Mark Horton who I have found to have some peculiar numbers and conclusions that often times I can't reconcile. I have to wonder if Horton has been telling him this because statistically, he's not the best putter ever and he's not even the best putter on Tour right now.

Furthermore, he has excelled from outside 15-feet. One may get away with putting well consistently from 15-25 feet year after year, but getting away with it from 25+ feet year after year is something I really haven't seen.

Meaning?

He's like to see his putting from outside 20-feet regress towards the mean and that will have a negative effect on his Putts Gained.

The issue with comparing Jordan to Tiger is that Tiger is like the Madonna of golfers...constantly reinventing himself.

Under Butch he was a great driver of the ball with freakish power off the tee and a great iron player. I think his putting metrics indicate that his putting under Butch wasn't always that great. He also had some short game issues early on with Butch that he later improved upon.

In the Haney era Tiger's driving regressed immensely, but his iron play became some of the best we've ever seen and perhaps the greatest iron play of all time. He was still a rock steady performer on short game shots around the green, but his putting also improved immensely as he became a consistently great putter. Like Spieth, his strength was from 15-25 feet. Unlike Spieth, his other strength was from 3-5 feet.

Eventually, Tiger's driving was so poor under Haney that he was relegated to 3-woods and 2-irons off the tee as we witnessed at the 2009 PGA Championship. He could get away with it because he was such a great iron player and such a great putter from 15-25 feet that he could still make birdies despite not hitting driver off the tee. And he could save par because he was almost automatic from 3-5 feet.

His work with Foley did improve his driving, but he started to get more cautious off the tee in the 2013 season where he had 5 victories. He was getting those victories by playing ultra-conservative off the tee despite hitting the driver well the season before. He still had his great iron play and incredible putting from 15-25 feet.

That magic from 15-25 feet started to erode away and that prevented him from winning because you can't be that conservative off the tee and win if you can't make long putts. You can't beat a darn good YE Yang (when he was healthy) if he's effectively out-driving you by 50-yards because he's hitting driver and you're hitting 2-iron unless you make some bombs.

Anyway, I think Jordan is a better overall driver of the ball when you combine the Harmon/Haney years. I think he's as good of an iron player in the Tiger/Harmon years, but not as good as the Tiger/Haney years. I think he's as good with pitch and chip shots as Tiger, but Tiger was a better bunker player. I trust Tiger's putting more and obviously, Tiger was much longer off the tee.

I think the key is if Spieth can:

1. Be careful with his workout regimen. I have had a lot of friends that were body builders, power lifters, pro wrestlers, etc. and at one time I was in very good physical condition myself. The people in those professions that had the best longevity almost all focused far more on staying flexible. Most of the time the personal trainers will tell a golfer how they want them to get stronger and put on this muscle mass and 'there's no reason why you can't put on muscle and stay flexible.' Inevitably, they will put on muscle mass and see short term rewards of being able to do things they could not do before and they continue to put on mass and end up destroying their body.


2. Stick with the same swing and avoid making any radical changes. I think a big key is for him to not lose his current swing. I think that is what tends to happen with golfers....they are not careful enough with looking at their current swing and let things slide for a while and before they know it, their swing mechanics are different and they are not producing the shots they once were. Then when they make a change it's often too late and they end up working with an instructor that wants them to change their swing to something completely new. It's alright to make changes, but it's really more about making changes to small nuances (and doing it with the intent of producing better shots) rather than making wholesale changes.






3JACK

[mchepp]

Thanks for the insightful response. This is interesting to me because it is exactly what you talk about in PGS with respect to being "streaky" from 15-25 feet but the really good putters are good from 3-5 feet. I had a sense from watching him that he was a poor short putter.

[Richie3Jack]

The putters that are consistent over time are good from 3 to 15 feet, not 3 to 5 feet.






3JACK