FootballOutsiders.com 2010 NFL Projections

[Richie3Jack]

For those who don’t know, footballoutsiders.com is a statistically driven NFL site. Its origins start from trying to replicate Bill James’ statistical work for baseball. They came up with their own ‘Football Prospectus’ book. I just finished reading it, here’s their statistical team record projections.

AFC East

New England 10-6
NY Jets 10-6
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 5-11

AFC North

Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11

AFC South

Indianapolis 11-5
Tennessee 7-9
Jacksonville 7-9
Houston 6-10

AFC West

Kansas City 9-7
San Diego 9-7
Denver 8-8
Oakland 5-11


NFC East

Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 9-7
NY Giants 9-7
Dallas 8-8

NFC North

Green Bay 9-7
Chicago 9-7
Minnesota 9-7
Detroit 3-13

NFC South

Atlanta 10-6
New Orleans 9-7
Tampa 8-8
Carolina 7-9

NFC West

Arizona 9-7
Seattle 7-9
St. Louis 6-10
San Francisco 6-10

I have some issues with FO.com’s analysis from time to time. Probably the biggest being that they favor pass heavy teams that pass the ball well. That’s important and usually equates to success, but I still think that the SB winner is usually the team with the best balanced offense and a decent pass defense. Thus, FO.com tends to favor the Eagles and Pats every year (and their founders and writers are almost exclusively Pats or Eagles fans as well).

The surprises to me where Houston (6-10), San Francisco (6-10) and Washington (9-7).

I read the Houston overview and it made sense. They played a pretty easy schedule last season and still couldn’t make the playoffs and their QB is injury prone. I haven’t read all of the Niners overview, but I’m guessing that they don’t like Alex Smith and the Niners are a run oriented offense. Although I really like Singletary as a HC. I thought he would be the motivating type that would neglect the schematics which usually work for a little while and fade away, but it was pretty easy to see that he wasn’t afraid to have schemes drawn up to maximize his players’ potential. They had Arizona going higher than I thought…but again, another passing oriented team. I can’t believe anybody would be sold on Leinart, particularly with Anquan Boldin gone and no Karlos Dansby who is a rare ILB in the 3-4 scheme because he can do it all.

Obviously, being a Cowboys fan I have my biases against Washington. Again, with McNabb…a QB who played on teams that favored the pass more than any team in the history of the league, FO.com favors the team he’s on again. I think Shanahan is a great offensive minded coach. I think Haslett was a bad pickup (the book even admits this), McNabb is injury prone, they need time to integrate the offense, and they have the oldest roster in the league, by far. The kicker is the division though, it’s just tough to go from 4-12 to a playoff team in a tough division.

They docked the Cowboys probably because Tony Romo hasn’t exactly had a common career path as a QB. They base a lot of their stats on previous players and those they resemble. But when looking at small school QB’s that didn’t start until their 4th year and came out on fire, there’s really not a sample size for it. I actually think Romo is now starting to peak in the sense he’s a more responsible QB with the football and still has the physical ability to do it all. Plus, I think his receivers right now are the best group he’s had (if you include TE’s as well). The other factor that docked my Cowboys is the injuries. There’s a flaw with their statistics and injuries, perhaps I’ll get to that some other time.





3JACK

[gmbtempe]

I tell you what, watched the Lions last weekend and if 3-13 is the over under than bet the house on the over, they looked like a half way decent team.

The AZ Cardinals though, big concerns there based on what I saw.

[Richie3Jack]

tough to tell in preseason. Particularly the 1st game of preseason as about 1/2 of the guys playing may never play a meaningful snap in the NFL. Lots of basic one-on-one stuff.

I think the Lions have talent there, particularly if Suh is the real deal. They'll have Suh and Vanden Bosch up front, Peterson and LB, and Delmas at safety. The corners would scare me a bit, the LB's can be protected and just help out in coverage, that'll make things easier.

On offense Stafford, Johnson, Best, Smith and Pettigrew. Not bad. May need some confidence to believe they are better than they think they are. Tough division as well.






3JACK

[gmbtempe]

Stafford is the real deal, he might make some mistakes but he has the best arm since Jeff George, and he actually is a leader.

Their defenseive backfield is gonna suck but that line is pretty good, they were all over Pittsburges starters.

Javod Best looked like the real deal as well.

The Lions suck, have always sucked, I have come to accept that and dont drink their kool aid but this is the best team in at least 8-10 years.

[secondary]

With you on the Lions over. The big one to me was the KC Chiefs. I like the fact that Cassel and Weiss have a history and there is a bit of a running game, but man it is hard to go from sucking that bad to that record?
The other one is Baltimore. I see them winning, but really, 12 wins? Taking the under on that one for sure.
Thanks for posting that Richie.

[Richie3Jack]

I picked the Chiefs as well and still have them picked to make the playoffs. Mainly because I think the Chiefs fit in the role of the team that has a losing record one year, then makes the playoffs the next season. Cassel is a decent veteran QB…that’s one of the things you need to have a team that rebounds like that. One of the others is to play in an easy division. Which the Chiefs do.

Another reason and the same reason why FO.com like the Chiefs is that they play an incredibly easy schedule this season. They also lost a lot of close games last year to good teams, another sign a team is going to make a jump.





3JACK

[secondary]

I think Cassel is going to be running for his life, but at least there are 3 targets to throw at this time around. They do have a good looking running game on paper though. Wish the Bear were in that division!