Pre-Season Picks

[macfan]

Now that the pre-season is pretty much over I'll list my predictions for the season. I list just the division rankings how I see it. Most of my predictions are based on statistical data and player evaluation, mostly player evaluation. I have a pretty good eye for offense, my uncle coached football at the highest level for many years and I have been fortunate enough to learn alot from many famous and not so famous coaches and players. Anyhoo, here it is:

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills

AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaquars

AFC West:

1.San Diego Chargers
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Denver Broncos



NFC East:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. N.Y. Giants
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Washington Redskins

NFC North:

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Detroit Lions
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Chicago Bears

NFC South:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West:

1.San Fransisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. St. Louis Rams

The toughest divisions to evaluate so far have been the AFC North, NFC South, and the NFC East.

AFC North: The Bengals look very good in the pre-season and in camp..I've been to their camp and even in the open to the public sessions the practices look very crisp and surprisingly well run and organized. The Steelers look piss poor in almost every phase, doesn't look good.

NFC South: The Saints offense look in mid-season form and I expect a couple of new additions to the defense to make a marked difference in the run game. The Saints must take the ball away, like they did last year in order to repeat, but with the loss of the ball hawking Sharper for a few games, it will be tough. The DT play is HUGE for the defending champs. The Falcons still look extraordinarily average and soft. And as usual, the Panthers are physical and VERY well coached.

NFC East: This is the hardest division to evaluate right now. The Cowboys flat out look awful. The can't block, they can't run and they can't pass..but they can play defense. The boys better really get their act together quick if they want a shot at the Saints this year. The Cowboys have a dominate run game that I believe they should use much more. There is no reason why the Cowboys should NOT lead the league in rushing attempts this season AND in close contention to big plays off of the play-action pass. The Giants are not that impressive, but neither are the Eagles or the Skins.

Watch for the NFC Championship to be: Saints vs. Packers
and the AFC Championship to be: Patriots vs. Bengals

We'll see........

[Richie3Jack]

Yep, can't wait.

This weekend we get the 3-day weekend and college football. Not as big of a fan of college football, but it's good to see the pigskin. A bit of a surprise there with the Lions although I think they will surprise people and if they can just outscore opponents, you can win a ton of games.





3JACK

[gmbtempe]

Right now I am not sure who is going to have a worse defense, the Lions or my Wolverines. Right now Vegas has Michigan the slight favorite.

ultimate defensive suckage.

Good offenses though.

[macfan]

The Lions have most definitely gotten better on defense. They have an immediate upgrade at the d tackle spot and in Vanden Bosch, Williams and the drafting of Suh. I really like those players and they immediately provide significant help with the run game, but of course I still worry about the Lions against the pass. The Lions on offense don't have much to worry about in terms of getting the ball down the field. I worry about the left tackle play, but I think they'll figure out ways to dilute other teams ability to pass rush with the screen game. The addition of Jahvid Best will give teams SERIOUS fits, not to mention all the other weapons the Lions have on offense. Matthew Stafford will be a STUD this year, mark it down.

IMO, the Vikings are in really big trouble. I do not see Favre getting through the whole season this year and there is NO WAY he produces like he did last year. Throw in what may be the toughest schedule in the league and nobody to throw the ball too because of injuries....IMO it's going to be A LOONG year for the Vikings.

[secondary]

Mac,

Love the analysis, seriously. As a fellow Black and Blue Division fan I am in agreement about Minn. As a Bear fan I got to say, not gonna happen this year. I am not very encouraged by Mike Martz and what I have seen, but still, Lions aren't going 8-8 this year. Not finishing higher than Bears, not this year. I really like J Best and I think Stafford will be good, but I don't think you reach Stud catagory without wins.

As a side note, I don't like the Bears chances this year and am not very hopeful. I am using this internet Bravado as means to try and get psyched up though. Since there isn't much chance of actual wager, I will just inflict puishment on myself if you are correct. Force myself to watch network sitcoms and chick flicks with my wife while giving up beer for a month? Something really bad like that.

Again, thanks for post, really liked it.

[macfan]

I like the Lions to go 8-8 and the rest of the division to really suck. The Bears just do not have the personnel to get it done in Martz' "system", plain and simple. The talent they have at the wide-reciever position is atrocious IMO. Best player on the team is Peppers and he isn't exactly a spring chicken. The Bears have a ways to go and it starts with getting some help on the o-line and getting rid of Cutler. Again...we'll see.

[Richie3Jack]

I think the issue with the Bears is more on the O-Line than at WR. The "Martz Model" would be the '99 Rams who used 4 WR's heavily (Isaac Bruce, Torrie Holt, Az Hakim and Ricky Proehl) with an awesome tailback in Faulk and a pretty versatile TE in Cromwell.

Forte has pass catching ability and I think is a solid tailback, but nowhere near Faulk's league. The Bears then have Bennett (decent), Aromashodu (big time talent), Hester and Knox. I really think it's a pretty good WR corp if Aormasodu, Hester and Knox continue to develop. Hester will be their X recever and probably could do a decent resemblence to Holt, Aromashodu will play the Z and probably could do a decent facsimile of Brue. Then Knox willl likely be a better version of Hakim and Bennett would be Proehl.

Problem is that it takes Olsen out of the equation and Olsen is better than their #3 and #4 WR (if not their #2 WR). And I don't think the TE really fits into what Martz wants to do, but he may not have a choice.

But the 7 step drops really frighten me for Bears fans. The couldn't drop Cutler back 5 steps last year without him running for his life.

My feeling on the Bears is that they could do very well this year, but if I was betting on them I would live by the credo of never betting on Mike Martz because you really have no idea as to what he's going to do...good or bad.





3JACK

[macfan]

I absolutely agree with you on the O-line for the Bears, but do not agree on the wide outs. The only decent receiver is Aromashodu(sp?). He's decent out of breaks and light on his feet, but IMO he lacks toughness and does not block down field that well. Hester is awful, wanna talk about footwork?, check that guy out on film. But, ultimately the responsibility lies with the Quarterback and Jay Cutler will never be a good, CONSISTENT QB in the NFL, plain and simple. He makes awful decisions, sometimes though I can blame his receivers for running around like chickens with their heads cut off, but alot of the time the fault lies with Cutler. The Bears recievers might be the worst in the league in run blocking and this is really going to tie Martz' hands. So, when you blame him for throwing the ball too much, consider the lack of ability and lack of motivation by the Bears receivers in blocking down field. There is more to that position than running a route and catching a ball. Another thing I look for with the Bears wideouts this year is for a couple of them to get hurt. 1) Because of the Bears O-line inability to block 2) Because of Cutlers inability to accurately deliver the football AWAY from the defense. Watch for Knox to be exposed alot and get injured. again we'll see;)

[Richie3Jack]

They said Tony Romo couldn't turn into a consistent QB and while it's a bit of a small sample size, he did last year. They said he couldn't even do it for one year though, so they were proven wrong. What concerns me about Cutler is his footwork. You're going to have to make back foot and off balanced throws in the NFL, but sometimes he goes to that when he doesn't need to or even worse, throws across his body. But I wouldn't claim that he'll never be a good, consistent QB because he has the tools to play very well at times and it may just take some time to develop his reads and impulse throws. They said the same thing about Matt Hasselbeck as well and I would've agreed with them back then, but he eventually turned into a solid, consistent QB. Only problem is he now gets hurt

Martz would forget about the run when he had Faulk and Steven Jackson, so excusing the O-Line play doesn't really jive with me since he's just a pass happy play caller to begin with. I see it as a boom or bust type of deal with probably about 30% boom, 70% bust right now.






3JACK

[secondary]

The Olsen factor hurts for sure. Cutler looked to him alot more at the end of the year last year. I think that C Taylor has a decent chance doing ok in the ever present Bear game plan of short dump offs, but really think Forte and Olsen are going to be forgotten about. The window has basically closed on my boys. Pretty much hoping one of the 4 recievers learns to catch the inevtiable hail mary that is coming there way more times than I would like. I think Richie is right, except it is more like 10% boom and a whole lotta bust. Here is to wishful thinking though!!!!!

[macfan]

Sept 1, 2010 12:20:39 GMT -5 Richie3Jack said:

They said Tony Romo couldn't turn into a consistent QB and while it's a bit of a small sample size, he did last year. They said he couldn't even do it for one year though, so they were proven wrong. What concerns me about Cutler is his footwork. You're going to have to make back foot and off balanced throws in the NFL, but sometimes he goes to that when he doesn't need to or even worse, throws across his body. But I wouldn't claim that he'll never be a good, consistent QB because he has the tools to play very well at times and it may just take some time to develop his reads and impulse throws. They said the same thing about Matt Hasselbeck as well and I would've agreed with them back then, but he eventually turned into a solid, consistent QB. Only problem is he now gets hurt

Martz would forget about the run when he had Faulk and Steven Jackson, so excusing the O-Line play doesn't really jive with me since he's just a pass happy play caller to begin with. I see it as a boom or bust type of deal with probably about 30% boom, 70% bust right now.






3JACK

Whoever "they" is doesn't include me when it comes to evaluating any players. I don't care what "they" say, I know what I have studied and see. Yes it is WAY TOO early to say Tony Romo is consistent at anything, except for wearing his hat backwards and looking like a douche'. I've said Cutler's footwork has been awful sense his college days at Vandy, I also mentioned it on BM's forum last year, but whatever.

In 2001 the Rams were 5th in the NFL in Rushing Yards, 1st in rushing touchdowns, first in yards per attempt, etc. I'd say that's getting it done on the ground and not being too one dimensional. To be fair they were 22nd in rushing attempts, so I guess they were extremely efficient in picking their spots. Martz is a good coach, but if he doesn't have the talent on the field, he, like most coaches don't get it done.

As for throwing off balance, I agree MOST QB's have to throw off balance, but like most everything there are exceptions. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning are masters of climbing the pocket and looking off coverage while going through their progressions and delivering the ball to the correct place on the field. Cutler has NEVER done this well and he never will IMO. He is not good in tight places. Romo has shown glimpses of it, but still is no where near as good as Brees, who IMO is the best in the league at these skills.

[Richie3Jack]

Brees is a good example of somebody that everybody wrote off pretty quickly and then when he was on his last straw and then finally came thru in his fourth year as a starter. Even then he was very good, but it wasn't until he came to the Saints that he became great. I just feel that more often than not, players get better, improve on their weaknesses and keep their strengths in tact. How well they improve (and how injuries effect their skills) is a different story.

I was off the Romo bandwagon early last year because he simply wouldn't protect the football and had an attitude of that as long as he makes plays, turning the ball over wasn't a big deal. He then started to lose his anticipation. But he changed his attitude, started protecting the football better and things got better. Whether or not he'll continue to stick with it is something I question to some degree.




3JACK

[macfan]

Romo and Cutler have similar attitudes I think in terms of the big play Sportscenter highlight attitude versus protecting the pill thing. Difference is, I think Romo will eventually figure it out in the long term, Cutler never will.

[Richie3Jack]

Sept 1, 2010 18:23:55 GMT -5 @macfan said:

Romo and Cutler have similar attitudes I think in terms of the big play Sportscenter highlight attitude versus protecting the pill thing. Difference is, I think Romo will eventually figure it out in the long term, Cutler never will.

To be frank, there were times in 2008 when Romo would blatantly say some things when questioned about protecting the football that were worse than anything I've heard out of Cutler.

I sort of understand Cutler's attitude. When I played baseball, my dad was coach. So when I accidentally hit a batter with a pitch, something that is pretty devastating to a young teenager, my dad instructed me (and other pitchers on our team) to just laugh it off. The parents and other kids would get really upset by it thinking we have a bad attitude, but it's not like we took that lightly.

Anyway, in '08 the Cowboys vs. Ravens game in particular was quite bad. Romo threw some real dumb interceptions where he was clearly throwing it up for grabs and Ed Reed caught them, put the Ravens in position to score and they did just that. After those type of games, Romo would just shrug it off to the press that had it been completed they would say how great he was and it comes with the territory of being a big play QB (which I completely disagree with). I was fully off the bandwagon of week 2 of 2009 against the G-Men when Romo said he wouldn't do that anymore and did. But after that game he seemed really down on himself and had a completely different attitude. I thought he was just saying the right things, but he did turn it around.

Romo actually does step up into the pocket quite a bit. The issue with him is his 3/4 delivery makes it hard for him to do it all of the time. The announcers will talk about him being so effective outside the pocket, which he usually is. But where he's tough is when he steps up into the pocket. But it's not easy to do that when you throw 3/4. However, that's how he naturally throws, he's generally quite accurate and he's got a super quick release...so there's the tradeoff.






3JACK