Your Super Bowl Picks?

[Richie3Jack]

I'm thinking...

Indy vs. Saints or Cowboys





3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Well, so much for the Cowboys. I'll be rooting for the Saints after the Vikings showed no class by trying to run up the score. Chargers struggling as we speak, but I thought statistically the Jets would be a tough team to beat if Sanchez could protect the football.



3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

So we have an NFC Championship game between Vikings and Saints and an AFC Championship game between the Colts and Jets.

I think it's going to be a Colts vs. Vikings Super Bowl.

The Jets have a great defense, led the league in points allowed and QB Rating allowed. Anytime you can do that, you are *almost* guaranteed to make the playoffs and be a tough team to beat in the postseason. But, I think they cannot rely on Sanchez being on such a short leash and the Jets don't sack the QB well, and that usually comes back to haunt teams...especially when they are facing Peyton.

I'll be rooting for the Saints, but the issue I have with them is that they give up too many points on defense. I do think they are good at creating turnovers and I think Favre is due to start being turnover prone like he has been in the postseason for the past 10 years.





3JACK

[coolsideofdapillow]

It's gonna be a black and gold Super Bowl, Rich. WHO DAT!?!?

[Richie3Jack]

Jan 18, 2010 23:42:25 GMT -5 coolsideofdapillow said:

It's gonna be a black and gold Super Bowl, Rich. WHO DAT!?!?

I hope so after the crap the Vikings pulled against my Cowboys. Bill Belicheat blushed after that bush league BS.

I'm a stats buff when it comes to football. Basically when it comes to the 'health' of a team statistically in the *NFL*, I look at these factors:

1. QB Rating Differential (aka QBRD). Just take the teams QB rating - QB rating allowed.

2. Points Allowed (you really want to be in the top 8 in the reg. season).

3. Sacks (goal should be at least 40)

4. Turnover Margin.

The Vikings are pretty strong in each category. The sames are phenomenal in #1 and #4, but 2 and 3 they are average to mediocre.

I hope they win, but statistically it's saying the Vikings.





YAKUZA

[vjsinger]

Are these stats taken over the course of the season? I like some stats Rich, but to me you CANNOT tell me these stats are useful in determining a winner..Why? The Saints, over the course of the season were THE MOST beat up team in the entire league. The rest did them LOTS of good and that cannot be overstated. Did you get to watch the game on Saturday? The Saints EMBARRASSED the defending NFC Champs. They shut down Fitzgerald, because the corners are back and healthy, and did not alow Warner to breathe all that much. The run game for the Cardinals was non existent and their defense looked even worse than they did against Green Bay. BTW, didn't you say Green Bay was a "Team no one wanted to face"..oops. In short, I respectfully disagree with your pick and your overall outlook on how you pick games.

[Richie3Jack]

Stats are about probability, not certainty. Funny you mention the Saints, the team with the highest QBRD in the league this year. So it's not like they were awful statistically. But, since 1983, there have only been 4 teams that didn't finish in the top 8 in points allowed that also *went* to the Super Bowl. 46 out of 50 teams is a big time trend. There will be another team that didn't finish in the top 8 again as the Vikings and the Saints didn't finish in the top 8. But since the Vikings have just as solid stats as the Saints, but are far better at sacking the QB and keeping opponents scoring down, that's why I think the Vikes have a statistical advantage.



3JACK

[vjsinger]

I understand what stats are about and I agree that they are useful, but in this case(Saints) I think you are missing the most important "stat", injuries. Jabari Greer(corner) has not been healthy for many weeks and starting in his place was a rookie, yet the Saints continued to win games. This is the first time since the middle of the season that the Saints have both of their starting corners back and healthy. IMO, the biggest key to this game is the health of the two teams and the Vikes Defensive tackle play. If Jeremy Shockey is at 90%, the Vikings have no answer for him, especially if E.J. Henderson is out. The Vikes DO NOT have enough speed on the back end to cover the Saints wide outs..see Carolina loss and Bears loss. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are way too fast for their corners. The only shot the Vikes corners have is at jamming and being VERY physical at the line of scrimmage with the Saints recievers and in my opinion, they won't be able to do that all game AND stop the Saints rushing attack. Peterson will not get 100 yards rushing in this game either. Favre will hold the ball too long and I believe he will fumble once and throw an interception. Man I could go on about this all day. Did I mention I'm a HUGE Saints fan:)

[Richie3Jack]

Injuries are certainly important. I was reading something last year that basically showed that most Super Bowl teams have two things in common:

1. They don't suffer many injuries.
2. They wind up playing a pretty easy schedule.

However, it's tough to judge that from the standpoint that it's not like the Vikings have not had injuries either.

I actually hope the Saints win. I thought the final TD the Vikings put up on Dallas was pretty disrespectful and the Vikings were talking trash all week long while Dallas players were respectful and kept their mouth shut. Outside of Sensabaugh who said that Dallas only loses if they beat themselves, the Cowboys were respectful towards the Vikings and the Vikings showed the lack of respect that Belichick has towards the game.

So, I want the Saints to win. But, I see some things statistically that concern me.

With the Packers, you have to remember when I wrote that, they were a team that was considered a bubble playoff team and I think they were 7-4 at the time. But the stats kept saying that the team was much, much better than that and they wound up going 11-5 and being one of the better teams in the league.





3JACK

[coolsideofdapillow]

There's a simulation program, I believe it's called Accuscore, that simulates the game a certain number of times and it picked the Saints. :woot:


Found a link to it. special.wwltv.com/accuscore/nfl/saints/

[Richie3Jack]

Jan 20, 2010 23:56:27 GMT -5 coolsideofdapillow said:

There's a simulation program, I believe it's called Accuscore, that simulates the game a certain number of times and it picked the Saints. :woot:


Found a link to it. special.wwltv.com/accuscore/nfl/saints/

Yes, accuscore is excellent.



3JACK

[vjsinger]

Man Rich. The injuries look like they're getting worse and worse for the Vikings. Looks like Shockey will be in a limited role on Sunday and we won't have Jenkins in the nickel for Sunday. The Saints look pretty good and healthy.

[Richie3Jack]

Who dat?

Say what you will, it was close, went in OT and my statistical analysis wasn't too far off.

But way to geaux Saints, thanks for knocking out the classless, disrespectful Vikings and Favre. I'm sure we'll have a great offseason of hearing how Favre won't make up his mind on retirement.




3JACK

[vjsinger]

So you predicted that the Vikes would turn it over 5 times? Ha just kidding. I'm a big Saints homer, but even I know that beating Indy will be VERY difficult. I think the Colts will beat us.