Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 8, 2010 12:06:49 GMT -5
AFC EAST
Miami Dolphins 10-6
New England Patriots 10-6
NY Jets 9-7
Buffalo Bills 3-13
I think people should take a closer look at Miami, who has a solid O-Line (provided Joe Berger can play center), a pretty strong running game, some solid receivers, solid corners and solid front seven. I don’t think the Jets’ pass defense will completely shut down their entire offense and I think they can give the Pats some trouble. I think the Pats have issues, mainly with no Logan Mankins and quite frankly they haven’t looked the same on defense since SpyGate was exposed. The Jets have too many things I don’t like to see a team do, like being on HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’, talking to much trash before they have ever done anything, having a sophomore QB and a sophomore HC. The Bills are the Bills, although I think CJ Spiller can flat out play. But the Bills will find a way to screw that up.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Cleveland Browns 5-11
The Ravens should be a well oiled machine this year as last year they figured out that Ray Rice was the back they needed to feature, not Willis McGahee. Plus Flacco is getting more comfortable and they’ve really developed a good offense. A friend of mine goes to Steelers training camps and tells me the team looks extremely good. Unfortunately, Dennis Dixon does not. But I think the Steelers work best at this point with a healthy Polamalu over a healthy (or non-suspended) Roethlisberger. I think this suspension has Roethlisberger working hard this offseason and I think the Steelers make a late run into the playoffs. I like Mike Zimmer as a person, but he’s severely overrated as a D-Coordinator. I should know, he coached my Cowboys there for seven painful years. His defenses always fizzled towards the end and he never put back-to-back good years on defense. I think the Ocho Cinco and Owens tandem along with Jonathan Joseph, Leon Hall (last year, by far the best CB tandem in the league) and now a behaving Pac Man Jones are a very enticing, but the boom or bust factor is off the charts. The Browns are too good to be drafting first, but nowhere near good enough to make the postseason. I like their potential in the defensive backfield with Eric Wright, Joe Haden and TJ Ward.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Houston Texans 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
The big surprise here is the Texans, who according to FO.com last year ‘played a pathetically soft schedule, including just six playoff teams.’ And all they managed to do was go 9-7. Plus, FO.com points out that Schaub, a historically fragile QB, managed to play all 16 games last season and they will be without defensive rookie of the year, Brian Cushing, for the first 4 games. I was on the fence about the Texans, so I consulted with the FO.com’s Football Prospectus and since it was so negative about the Texans and their negativity made sense, I’ve got them at 7-9 and I’m comfortable with that. I’m actually less comfortable with the Jaguars going 6-10 because they like to pound the rock and play physically. The downside with that is it’s not very exciting and it’s hard to go say 12-4 with that record and usually that style of team doesn’t work well in the postseason anymore. But the upside is that it usually keeps a team right around .500 ball. I just don’t like Jeff Fisher, but I’m not convinced that Vince Young is the answer at QB either. Being better than Kerry Collins is like saying that your sandwhich tastes better than the urinal cake in the bathroom.
AFC WEST
KC Chiefs 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Denver 6-10
Oakland 3-13
From 2000-2008, the NFL averaged 4 playoff teams each year that made the playoffs despite having a losing record the year before. I eventually started to dub them the ‘Fab Four of the NFL.’ Unfortunately this didn’t work the past 2 seasons because of the low amount of teams with losing records the past few years. In ’09 there were only 12 teams with a losing record, so that just makes it less likely that 4 of them will make the playoffs this year. KC fits the profile of the team that makes the jump and they also play a very soft schedule. San Diego plays a pretty easy schedule, but I think they are still rebuilding the defense and Norv Turner doesn’t strike me as the greatest HC in the world in spite of his recent success. The Broncos are a mess, particularly with injuries and McDaniels reminds me a lot of the other uber-emotional, young head coaches whose teams usually have their extreme highs and extreme lows.
I thought Oakland had a chance this year by dumping Russell, improving their defense a bit and starting Bruce Gradkowski who could protect the football, not get sacked too much and get some yards with some dink and dunk stuff and then just run the ball and win those 14-9 type games. Instead they went and got Jason Campbell because he can throw the long ball, except he can’t. And I think his mechanics were all messed up by Jim Zorn because he tried to make him into a Matt Hasselbeck when he needs to be more like Peyton Manning. He’s also terrible on those off balance throws that every QB has to make from time to time…particularly if you’re behind the Raiders O-Line.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
Washington Redskins 6-10
The Cowboys had a rough preseason from an injury perspective, but those guys are likely to be ready by week 2. I think the thing people don’t comprehend about Dallas is that from a statistical standpoint defensive sacks and offensive QB rating generally correlate very strongly to winning and losing in the NFL. The critics can say what they want about Wade Phillips, but historically over the past 20 years, no coach has had his defenses consistently get as many sacks year in and year out on the QB. And the critics can say what they want about Romo, but his career average QB rating in 95.6, with a season low of 91.6, when he was plagued by a hand injury. The G-Men have the strongest coach in the division in Coughlin and should get back to the basics. While everybody praised Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses, statistically they were not THAT appealing outside of being able to sack the QB. That tells me that they were not quite made to blitz as much as they did and I think they’ll fit better into Perry Fewell’s Tampa 2 scheme. The Eagles were a team that lived and died by the big play last season and we don’t know how good Kolb will be there. We do know that McNabb was a QB that did make a lot of big plays. The Skins have a lot of things to work out and McNabb is injury prone and they also have by far the oldest roster in the league which usually is not something you want to have because of the injury rate in the league.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 5-11
Mike McCarthey’s teams have had a very high QBRD in each of the three seasons they have coached. The main reason why they went 6-10 in 2008 despite such a high QBRD is that they were so unbelievably awful against the run that it was more or less one of those very rare teams that have a very high QBRD, yet cannot get a winning record. The Vikings are going to miss Sidney Rice and I would have a hard time trusting that the Percy Harvin health issues will just go away. Favre is a guy that I used to like to watch, but generally held other QB’s in high regard like John Elway because of Favre’s high turnover rate. But it’s tough to argue against a guy that has only had 1 year with a losing record and 1 year with a 8-8 record, which was under Ray Rhodes…generally known as an awful HC. Still, I think the book is out on Favre now, blitz the bejeesus out of him. Although they should’ve taken that from Mike Tice who blitzed the bejeesus out of Favre as well and it worked. It’s just tough being in your 40’s and being peppered by NFL LB’s and safeties. I think the Bears have a boom or bust situation going on. I like their WR’s better than most people. I like Mike Martz when he has an ‘editor’ at HC to make sure he doesn’t completely abandon the run. But I also think they need an ‘editor’ to tell him to focus on protecting the QB first and work with what plays they are confident they can protect the QB in. The Lions have some serious talent, but they’ll need to find ways to protect the secondary. I also think they are the type of team that just doesn’t quite believe that they are a team that should go 8-8 or better.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
Carolina Panthers 8-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
Teams will probably figure out ways to ever so slightly halt the Saints offense a tad. They tend to do that when a team goes to the Super Bowl. I’d be more concerned about the defense. Gregg Williams is a good D-Coordinator, but he tends to have some up and down years with his defenses. I’d say he’s good, but I wouldn’t put my money on his defenses to do well. The Falcons I think are going to be back on track this year, although Matt Ryan’s sometimes is a bit too inaccurate for my tastes. The Panthers I’m not so sure about. I sort of like the things Raheem Morris is doing at Tampa, but he has such a large overhaul he’s still a long way from being successful.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers 10-6
Seattle Seahawks 8-8
Arizona Cardinals 7-9
St. Louis Rams 3-13
I was impressed with Singletary as a coach last year because usually those tough, disciplinarian coaches tend to neglect trying to beat teams with schemes and get into ‘it’s all about execution.’ Execution is more important than scheme in the NFL, IMO…but, you are not going to consistently win if your scheming and gameplanning is poor. With Singletary, I thought he schemed and gameplanned well past my expectations and you combine that with a tough, fiery coach and I think he’s got the potential to be a really good HC in this league and a future SB winner. And I hate the Niners…but that’s just my feeling on it. The problem for him is to eventually find a QB. I can see him being a lot like Bill Cowher, same type of personality and a pretty good gameplanning and scheming coach, who just never found a QB but produced quality teams year in and year out before he eventually got the QB he needed to win the SB. I know FO.com doesn’t like the Niners this year, but I have more confidence in Singletary than they do.
The Seahawks fit the profile of a ‘Fab Four Team’, mostly because of Hasselbeck. But I think the Seahawks have made too much turnover of their roster as Carroll is trying to clean house. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make the playoffs though, but I’m going to try and hedge my bets here.
Derrick Anderson is a QB that the scouts and coaches love, but I don’t see it. He’s woefully inaccurate and has been since his Oregon State days. The Rams will start Bradford as a rookie. Can’t blame them, but doesn’t mean they are going to do well.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay 23 Baltimore 14
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Aaron Rodgers QB (Green Bay)
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Troy Polamalu S (Pittsburgh)
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: CJ Spiller RB (Buffalo)
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Joe Haden CB (Cleveland)
COACH OF THE YEAR: Todd Haley (Kansas City)
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Alex Smith QB (San Francisco)
COACH FIRINGS/RETIREES: Eric Mangini (Cleveland), Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay), John Fox (Carolina), Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville), Tom Cable (Oakland), Gary Kubiak (Houston), Lovie Smith (Chicago)
3JACK
Miami Dolphins 10-6
New England Patriots 10-6
NY Jets 9-7
Buffalo Bills 3-13
I think people should take a closer look at Miami, who has a solid O-Line (provided Joe Berger can play center), a pretty strong running game, some solid receivers, solid corners and solid front seven. I don’t think the Jets’ pass defense will completely shut down their entire offense and I think they can give the Pats some trouble. I think the Pats have issues, mainly with no Logan Mankins and quite frankly they haven’t looked the same on defense since SpyGate was exposed. The Jets have too many things I don’t like to see a team do, like being on HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’, talking to much trash before they have ever done anything, having a sophomore QB and a sophomore HC. The Bills are the Bills, although I think CJ Spiller can flat out play. But the Bills will find a way to screw that up.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Cleveland Browns 5-11
The Ravens should be a well oiled machine this year as last year they figured out that Ray Rice was the back they needed to feature, not Willis McGahee. Plus Flacco is getting more comfortable and they’ve really developed a good offense. A friend of mine goes to Steelers training camps and tells me the team looks extremely good. Unfortunately, Dennis Dixon does not. But I think the Steelers work best at this point with a healthy Polamalu over a healthy (or non-suspended) Roethlisberger. I think this suspension has Roethlisberger working hard this offseason and I think the Steelers make a late run into the playoffs. I like Mike Zimmer as a person, but he’s severely overrated as a D-Coordinator. I should know, he coached my Cowboys there for seven painful years. His defenses always fizzled towards the end and he never put back-to-back good years on defense. I think the Ocho Cinco and Owens tandem along with Jonathan Joseph, Leon Hall (last year, by far the best CB tandem in the league) and now a behaving Pac Man Jones are a very enticing, but the boom or bust factor is off the charts. The Browns are too good to be drafting first, but nowhere near good enough to make the postseason. I like their potential in the defensive backfield with Eric Wright, Joe Haden and TJ Ward.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Houston Texans 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
The big surprise here is the Texans, who according to FO.com last year ‘played a pathetically soft schedule, including just six playoff teams.’ And all they managed to do was go 9-7. Plus, FO.com points out that Schaub, a historically fragile QB, managed to play all 16 games last season and they will be without defensive rookie of the year, Brian Cushing, for the first 4 games. I was on the fence about the Texans, so I consulted with the FO.com’s Football Prospectus and since it was so negative about the Texans and their negativity made sense, I’ve got them at 7-9 and I’m comfortable with that. I’m actually less comfortable with the Jaguars going 6-10 because they like to pound the rock and play physically. The downside with that is it’s not very exciting and it’s hard to go say 12-4 with that record and usually that style of team doesn’t work well in the postseason anymore. But the upside is that it usually keeps a team right around .500 ball. I just don’t like Jeff Fisher, but I’m not convinced that Vince Young is the answer at QB either. Being better than Kerry Collins is like saying that your sandwhich tastes better than the urinal cake in the bathroom.
AFC WEST
KC Chiefs 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Denver 6-10
Oakland 3-13
From 2000-2008, the NFL averaged 4 playoff teams each year that made the playoffs despite having a losing record the year before. I eventually started to dub them the ‘Fab Four of the NFL.’ Unfortunately this didn’t work the past 2 seasons because of the low amount of teams with losing records the past few years. In ’09 there were only 12 teams with a losing record, so that just makes it less likely that 4 of them will make the playoffs this year. KC fits the profile of the team that makes the jump and they also play a very soft schedule. San Diego plays a pretty easy schedule, but I think they are still rebuilding the defense and Norv Turner doesn’t strike me as the greatest HC in the world in spite of his recent success. The Broncos are a mess, particularly with injuries and McDaniels reminds me a lot of the other uber-emotional, young head coaches whose teams usually have their extreme highs and extreme lows.
I thought Oakland had a chance this year by dumping Russell, improving their defense a bit and starting Bruce Gradkowski who could protect the football, not get sacked too much and get some yards with some dink and dunk stuff and then just run the ball and win those 14-9 type games. Instead they went and got Jason Campbell because he can throw the long ball, except he can’t. And I think his mechanics were all messed up by Jim Zorn because he tried to make him into a Matt Hasselbeck when he needs to be more like Peyton Manning. He’s also terrible on those off balance throws that every QB has to make from time to time…particularly if you’re behind the Raiders O-Line.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
Washington Redskins 6-10
The Cowboys had a rough preseason from an injury perspective, but those guys are likely to be ready by week 2. I think the thing people don’t comprehend about Dallas is that from a statistical standpoint defensive sacks and offensive QB rating generally correlate very strongly to winning and losing in the NFL. The critics can say what they want about Wade Phillips, but historically over the past 20 years, no coach has had his defenses consistently get as many sacks year in and year out on the QB. And the critics can say what they want about Romo, but his career average QB rating in 95.6, with a season low of 91.6, when he was plagued by a hand injury. The G-Men have the strongest coach in the division in Coughlin and should get back to the basics. While everybody praised Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses, statistically they were not THAT appealing outside of being able to sack the QB. That tells me that they were not quite made to blitz as much as they did and I think they’ll fit better into Perry Fewell’s Tampa 2 scheme. The Eagles were a team that lived and died by the big play last season and we don’t know how good Kolb will be there. We do know that McNabb was a QB that did make a lot of big plays. The Skins have a lot of things to work out and McNabb is injury prone and they also have by far the oldest roster in the league which usually is not something you want to have because of the injury rate in the league.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 5-11
Mike McCarthey’s teams have had a very high QBRD in each of the three seasons they have coached. The main reason why they went 6-10 in 2008 despite such a high QBRD is that they were so unbelievably awful against the run that it was more or less one of those very rare teams that have a very high QBRD, yet cannot get a winning record. The Vikings are going to miss Sidney Rice and I would have a hard time trusting that the Percy Harvin health issues will just go away. Favre is a guy that I used to like to watch, but generally held other QB’s in high regard like John Elway because of Favre’s high turnover rate. But it’s tough to argue against a guy that has only had 1 year with a losing record and 1 year with a 8-8 record, which was under Ray Rhodes…generally known as an awful HC. Still, I think the book is out on Favre now, blitz the bejeesus out of him. Although they should’ve taken that from Mike Tice who blitzed the bejeesus out of Favre as well and it worked. It’s just tough being in your 40’s and being peppered by NFL LB’s and safeties. I think the Bears have a boom or bust situation going on. I like their WR’s better than most people. I like Mike Martz when he has an ‘editor’ at HC to make sure he doesn’t completely abandon the run. But I also think they need an ‘editor’ to tell him to focus on protecting the QB first and work with what plays they are confident they can protect the QB in. The Lions have some serious talent, but they’ll need to find ways to protect the secondary. I also think they are the type of team that just doesn’t quite believe that they are a team that should go 8-8 or better.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
Carolina Panthers 8-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
Teams will probably figure out ways to ever so slightly halt the Saints offense a tad. They tend to do that when a team goes to the Super Bowl. I’d be more concerned about the defense. Gregg Williams is a good D-Coordinator, but he tends to have some up and down years with his defenses. I’d say he’s good, but I wouldn’t put my money on his defenses to do well. The Falcons I think are going to be back on track this year, although Matt Ryan’s sometimes is a bit too inaccurate for my tastes. The Panthers I’m not so sure about. I sort of like the things Raheem Morris is doing at Tampa, but he has such a large overhaul he’s still a long way from being successful.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers 10-6
Seattle Seahawks 8-8
Arizona Cardinals 7-9
St. Louis Rams 3-13
I was impressed with Singletary as a coach last year because usually those tough, disciplinarian coaches tend to neglect trying to beat teams with schemes and get into ‘it’s all about execution.’ Execution is more important than scheme in the NFL, IMO…but, you are not going to consistently win if your scheming and gameplanning is poor. With Singletary, I thought he schemed and gameplanned well past my expectations and you combine that with a tough, fiery coach and I think he’s got the potential to be a really good HC in this league and a future SB winner. And I hate the Niners…but that’s just my feeling on it. The problem for him is to eventually find a QB. I can see him being a lot like Bill Cowher, same type of personality and a pretty good gameplanning and scheming coach, who just never found a QB but produced quality teams year in and year out before he eventually got the QB he needed to win the SB. I know FO.com doesn’t like the Niners this year, but I have more confidence in Singletary than they do.
The Seahawks fit the profile of a ‘Fab Four Team’, mostly because of Hasselbeck. But I think the Seahawks have made too much turnover of their roster as Carroll is trying to clean house. It wouldn’t surprise me if they make the playoffs though, but I’m going to try and hedge my bets here.
Derrick Anderson is a QB that the scouts and coaches love, but I don’t see it. He’s woefully inaccurate and has been since his Oregon State days. The Rams will start Bradford as a rookie. Can’t blame them, but doesn’t mean they are going to do well.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay 23 Baltimore 14
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Aaron Rodgers QB (Green Bay)
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Troy Polamalu S (Pittsburgh)
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: CJ Spiller RB (Buffalo)
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Joe Haden CB (Cleveland)
COACH OF THE YEAR: Todd Haley (Kansas City)
COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Alex Smith QB (San Francisco)
COACH FIRINGS/RETIREES: Eric Mangini (Cleveland), Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay), John Fox (Carolina), Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville), Tom Cable (Oakland), Gary Kubiak (Houston), Lovie Smith (Chicago)
3JACK
