3Jack's NFL Week 5 TSHI Proj. Wins

[Richie3Jack]

Here's what I've got after last week's games:

Rnk……….Team………………Proj. Wins
1…..New York Jets……….11.79
2…..New England Patriots……….11.76
3…..Indianapolis Colts……….10.47
4…..Atlanta Falcons……….10.45
5…..Pittsburgh Steelers……….10.39
6…..Tennessee Titans……….10.29
7…..San Diego Chargers……….10.24
8…..Green Bay Packers……….9.96
9…..Kansas City Chiefs……….9.84
10…..Philadelphia Eagles……….9.48
11…..Detroit Lions……….9.05
12…..Tampa Bay Buccaneers……….9.04
13…..New York Giants……….8.81
14…..New Orleans Saints……….8.75
15…..Cincinnati Bengals……….8.73
16…..Chicago Bears……….8.43
17…..Baltimore Ravens……….8.32
18…..Washington Redskins……….7.85
19…..Seattle Seahawks……….7.51
20…..Denver Broncos……….7.23
21…..Dallas Cowboys……….7.01
22…..St. Louis Rams……….6.87
23…..Cleveland Browns……….6.25
24…..Minnesota Vikings……….6.03
25…..Miami Dolphins……….5.74
26…..Jacksonville Jaguars……….5.29
27…..Houston Texans……….5.28
28…..Arizona Cardinals……….4.70
29…..Oakland Raiders……….4.65
30…..Buffalo Bills……….4.10
31…..San Francisco 49ers……….3.50
32…..Carolina Panthers……….3.35

If we were to round the numbers off, their projected records would look like this:

AFC EAST

NY Jets 12-4
New England 12-4
Miami 6-10
Buffalo 4-12

AFC North

Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 9-7
Baltimore 8-8
Cleveland 6-10

AFC South

Indianapolis 10-6
Tennessee 10-6
Jacksonville 5-11
Houston 5-11

AFC West

San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 10-6
Denver 7-9
Oakland 5-11

NFC East

Philadelphia 9-7
NY Giants 9-7
Washington 8-8
Dallas 7-9

NFC North

Green Bay 10-6
Detroit 9-7
Chicago 8-8
Minnesota 6-10

NFC South

Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 9-7
New Orleans 9-7
Carolina 3-13

NFC West

Seattle 8-8
St. Louis 7-9
Arizona 5-11
San Francisco 4-12

[secondary]

Wow, dark times ahead for the Bears huh? And look at the run that the Mighty Lions are going to put on.

[Richie3Jack]

Remember that this is basically saying that ‘in their first 5 games, they’ve played like a team that would be projected to win X amount of games.’ So the Bears first 5 games they really played like an 8-8 team, but went 4-1. If they keep on playing like that, they’ll probably finish close to 8-8, but if they play better good things could be ahead for them because they should’ve gone 3-2 and instead picked up one extra victory. Also remember that victory could’ve been the Lions game where the Lions got screwed on a terrible rule. The refs claim it was a good call, but I always understood that refereeing in large part is about using good judgement and they obviously did not.

Here’s where the Bears stand in the categories measured in TSHI:

They are 14th in yards per point scored. Currently averaging 1 point per 15.3 yards gained.

They have a +2 turnover margin (imagine if their QB’s didn’t turn the ball over so much)

They are 5th in points allowed.

They have a decent QBRD of +7.4

Where they get killed is in adjusted sacks allowed, they are worst in the league. That would probably scare me more than anything. Although I kind of see this like the ’05 Bears with a very strong, but not spectacular defense and a very good, but not super strong return game. Their QB’s just needed to protect the football and let the defense, which is great at creating turnovers and the solid return game do most of the work. They’ll probably get bounced out in the first round of the playoffs since you do need some effective QB play there, but like I said before the season…I see them as like a 80/20 or 70/30 bust or boom team and so far they are booming.

The Lions rank 6th in yards per point scored, averaging 1 point per 13.2 yards gained.

They have a very good turnover margin at +3.

Their offensive line has done well protecting the QB’s so far as they are 4th in adjusted sacks allowed rate.

What’s hurting them is their secondary. Their QBRD is at -5.2 which is typically what a 6-10 or 7-9 team does and it’s really the poor secondary play causing that. They are also 23rd in points allowed.

I also think that the Lions just lack some confidence. The Rams stats were solid coming into the Lions game, even better than the Vikes and Bears coming into last week (now the Rams statistically are not as strong). But the Lions easily handled the Rams and I believe it was just due to the Lions thinking ‘well, they’re the Rams’ and they got the victory. And the Rams had 2 wins in a row before that.

I think it makes the Lions a tough team to bet on because they are better than their record indicates, but I don’t think they have the confidence to quite believe that so they can pull out a victory.





3JACK

[secondary]

Good analysis Rich. I don't think the Bears are a good team this year. I just get the feeling that this division is a mess at the moment with all the teams looking sort of out of sync. The Bears luck just seems like it might be enough to put them over the top in this one. Obviously the Lions won that first game against them and I think they are a team on the rise. They just don't have "it" yet.

Going to be interesting to watch the Pack and the Vikings and see what they look like. Worried about the Pack, that was a bad loss last weekend, they had that game won.
I think the Bears have their best fooball ahead of them, but then again I am biased.

Don't know what the stats say, but it seems like the Patirots, Jets, Ravens and Steelers just look like the 4 best teams so far. They are Tier 1 and then it seems like the drop off is bigger than it should be.

[Richie3Jack]

The Pack's issue is that they really don't provide a deep threat. They don't have the pass protection or that prototype big time deep threat like a Calvin Johnson type. Not that Driver, Jones, and Jennings can't go deep, but they are more or less WR's that need to get separation and that takes pass protection from the O-Line so they can burn past the secondary.

A Calvin Johnson type would need less time because he doesn't need the separation. He can go up and get a jump ball and make a big play.

This could be helped if the Packers had a running game because they could keep the defenses honest and use play action and set up the big deep pass play. But they don't have the running game and they are relegated to throwing a lot of short passes.

Which is okay, but the problem you run into is that it's very difficult to sustain drives and score just on short passes. Holding calls are more likely to happen, false starts are more likely to happen, drops are more likely to happen, etc. That's why NFL teams love the deep threats in the passing game because you're more likely to score a TD on a 3 or 5 play drive than you are on a 15+ play drive. Sure, the deep threats can make D-Coordinators' lives miserable and can open up the running game, but the bigger reason is that if you are relegated to only scoring TD's on those 10+play drives, you're not going to score that often because players tend to mess up. And that's kind of what the Packers are going thru on offense.

Martz is a strange O-Coordinator because he's willing to try plays on the fly that the team hasn't worked on if he thinks they'll work. But OTOH, he has a tendency to stick to the overall gameplan and say 'they cannot stop this for an entire game.' That may be true, but that may not work until it's too late.

I thought the G-Men game was typical Martz....too stubborn to realize that he needs to start to protec the QB. Instead he kept using 3+ WR sets with little protection, Cutler got rattled, then he got hurt and they wound up having Todd Collins starting the next game and luckily they got to face the Panthers.

It's kind of crazy because overall I think Lovie is a very good coach, but he seems to be too stubborn when it comes to the offense and is content winning those games with awful QB play. The big thing Lovie has going for him is his ability to get his defenses to force fumbles (fumbles are hard to force, yet the Bears force them far, far better than anybody) and his special teams. But eventually that stuff will only go so far.

To me, the concept for the Bears offense should be simple. Protect the football. Their defense and special teams is too good and they force too many turnovers to not do well. The only thing that can screw them up is if they give the opposing team a short field or their defense stays on the field for too long.

Things could change for the Vikings if Favre is healthy enough and Moss catches up to speed. I'm starting to believe that Favre, when it comes to dealing with the media, is a brilliant, genius mastermind.

When I played baseball my dad would coach and he always had kids who would pitch for him and their arms would suddenly hurt when the other team was hitting them well. But when they were winning, they could throw all month long if they had to. That's what Favre's elbow tendonitis reminded me of with all of the talk of him and the cock shots to Sterger, etc.

Just enough to wonder if he'll play this weekend and get the media and fans back onto his side.

Favre may be a genius at playing the media like Vic Mackey from The Shield was at playing the system.






3JACK

[kamandi]

The main problem with the Bears offense is the OL; they're terrible at both pass protection and run blocking. Aside from Carolina, the Bears haven't been successful running the ball. Indeed, they aren't even reliable for 1 yard, let alone 3 or 4. When they were ahead of the Cowboys late in the game, they just wanted to play safe and run the ball, which got them to a 3-and-out if I remember correctly.

If the rushing offense keeps getting stuffed due to terrible OL run blocking, the Bears will have to resort to walking the tightrope of making accurate passes while getting a lot of hits and sacks on the QB, due to poor pass protection.

Right now, if the rushing offense can't get going, the Bears will be under a lot of pressure to complete the early passes in order to get respect from the opposing defense, otherwise, it's the Giants game all over again.

Much easier to protect the ball if you at least have a decent rushing offense. Also easier to protect the ball if your QB isn't getting hit a lot.

[kamandi]

I do agree with you that during the Giants game, Martz was still trying to attack the Giants defense, even when Cutler was getting hammered. It's not just the sacks; I think Cutler was hit 9 times in 20 drop backs; if that's right, that's a hit every 2 passing snaps ... and they didn't run the ball a lot. The Giants knew the Bears were passing, and the Bears could not protect the QB.

I believe it would have been better if Martz just called a lot of running plays, with the sole intent of protecting his QB. The running plays wouldn't work, but it could have kept Cutler from getting hit a lot. He was still trying to win the game, and he knew the rushing offense hadn't been getting the job done.

When Cutler was out the 2nd half, Martz adjusted his playcalling. He was no longer trying to attack the field with Collins. A lot of those passes didn't have a chance, but it lessened the pounding on the QBs. Collins still got injured, and Hanie was still hammered pretty good.

[kamandi]

Just my opinion, with no scientific backing, but I think the Ravens are the best team in the league, and the Jets are 2nd.

I'm hoping the Bears win 9 or 10 games, but it will be tough. They have a brutal stretch to end the regular season.

Of the 19 penalties the Packers had against the Bears (2 declined), only about 5 of them were stupid/careless ones. The rest had to do with stopping receivers from getting open, or the OL getting antsy from the pressure causing false starts, and holding penalties when the OL was beaten. A lot had to do with Peppers. They didn't just shoot themselves in the foot; the Bears caused most of those.

If the Bears OL was smart, they'd have held more against the Giants to protect their QB, the way the Packers did against the Bears.

[secondary]

Well, prety much as predicted. I played golf instead of watched but caught the rewind on NFL channel. 8 wins looks about right, at best. Packers are kind of a mess. I hate to say it, but I think the darn Vikes might end up with that division.

Giants looked pretty darn good. Not excited about the Monday night game at all. Ready for next week already.

[Richie3Jack]

The Vikings seem like a tough home team. I wouldn't be surprised if 9-7 takes the NFC North. Consistency out of the QB position would scare me about the Bears. The Packers are relegated to a short pass offense and there's no deep threat. It's hard enough to make those 15 play drives and score TD's because somebody is bound to screw up and stall the drive. But doing those 15 play drives and almost every play is a pass is extremely difficult.

I think the Colts are the most fun team to watch beteween their defensive ends and Peyton and the offense.

My Cowboys need a coaching overhaul badly. The silver lining is that they could be 5-0 and if they finish 6-10, they could wind up losing 8 or 9 games by less than 8 points. If they get a new HC and staff, then that could be turned around dramatically in 2011. Although the bad part is I think we'll wind up with Jason Garrett as HC.





3JACK