NFL Week 9 TSHI

[Richie3Jack]

I think last week's projected wins were a little off because Pro Football Reference didn't update the teams that played MNF last week on the following Tuesday. But this time I've got the MNF teams down as well.

Tennessee Titans………12.40
Indianapolis Colts………11.52
Kansas City Chiefs………11.30
New York Jets………10.65
New England Patriots………10.43
Green Bay Packers………10.38
Pittsburgh Steelers………10.27
Atlanta Falcons………9.60
St. Louis Rams………9.42
New Orleans Saints………9.33
Baltimore Ravens………9.23
Detroit Lions………9.17
New York Giants………8.82
Cincinnati Bengals………8.75
San Diego Chargers………8.61
Philadelphia Eagles………8.53
Tampa Bay Buccaneers………8.22
Miami Dolphins………7.78
Chicago Bears………7.70
Seattle Seahawks………7.42
Washington Redskins………7.11
Oakland Raiders………6.96
Cleveland Browns………6.73
Dallas Cowboys………6.00
Denver Broncos………5.91
Minnesota Vikings………5.80
San Francisco 49ers………5.56
Houston Texans………5.37
Jacksonville Jaguars………5.03
Carolina Panthers………3.61
Arizona Cardinals………3.60
Buffalo Bills………3.53


AFC East
NY Jets 11-5
New England 10-6
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 4-12

AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 7-9

AFC South
Tennessee 12-4
Indianapolis 12-4
Houston 5-11
Jacksonville 5-11

AFC West
Kansas City 11-5
San Diego 9-7
Oakland 7-9
Denver 7-9

NFC East
NY Giants 9-7
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 7-9
Dallas 6-10

NFC North
Green Bay 10-6
Detroit 9-7
Chicago 8-8
Minnesota 6-10

NFC South
Atlanta 10-6
New Orleans 9-7
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 4-12

NFC West
St. Louis 9-7
Seattle 7-9
San Francisco 6-10
Arizona 4-12


That would leave the playoffs looking like:

AFC
Tennessee 12-4**
Kansas City 11-5**
NY Jets 11-5*
Pittsburgh 10-6*
Indianapolis 12-4***
New England 10-6***


NFC
Green Bay 10-6**
Atlanta 10-6**
St. Louis 9-7*
NY Giants 9-7*
New Orleans 9-7***
Detroit 9-7***

* - divisional champ
** - divisional champ with home field advantage
*** - wild card

So with the projections, the Pats should fall a bit down the stretch, the Lions should make a run (although I think they need to *believe* they can actually win before they are playoff ready). Tampa should fall and the Texans loss to the Colts was no surprise because they've been doomed to fall sooner or later for awhile now.

Probably the intriguing team right now is the Raiders, who are in the 'good' to 'solid' range in every category besides QBRD (which is a big statistic). But if they continue on this pace, that should just get better as well. They are:

5th in Net Adjusted Points Pery Yard (NAPPY)
13th in TO Margin
15th in points allowed

But, they are 22nd in QBRD (-10.7) and 29th in Adjusted Sacks Allowed.






YR

[kamandi]

I had a feeling the Raiders would do much better this season. I started thinking this way with the way they drafted this year; they actually made a lot of solid, sensible picks, instead of reaching for super athletes. Then they made some solid moves ... getting rid of JaMarcus, then bringing in Campbell. I really liked that they drafted Mclain to be the leader of their defense.

With all those high draft picks during the last several years, some of them are bound to be solid players, and if they are, their superman qualities that Al likes to draft will be a bonus.

Couple that with a very volatile AFC West, and they have a shot.

Sorry to hear about Wade getting fired, and the Cowboys in a slump. 5 of their 7 losses are only by a TD or less. Sometimes, things just don't fall into place.

[Richie3Jack]

Thanks kamandi. The Cowboys fiasco would've been hard to deal with if I still lived in Atlanta. I really disliked living there and thus, things like pro football became more important to me. Now that I live in Orlando and like it here, it's angers me less. I'm not high on Garrett, but I'll give him a chance for now. Unfortunately, Pasqualoni is their D-Coordinator and I dealt with him for 13 years at Syracuse. I think he winds up hurt Garrett's chances in the end.

I've had a particular interest in the Raiders for awhile since I read that last year Tom Cable was using a different way of training the team. It was very much like something you would read out of 'The Talent Code.' It's very 'golf practice-ish' where they would worry solely about technique and the parts of the technique, much like a golfer practicing a swing in slow motion and trying to hit certain alignments rather than just hitting ball after ball.

Not sure if he tried it this year, but they are a better team overall in their technique and it may have been the reason why.

Jacoby Ford's performance was one of the most inspiring performances I've seen in awhile. He literally took over the game despite being a guy who hardly played at all.

The problem with most statisticians in football is that the popular approach is to believe that the pass wins you games and the run is just there to close out the games. I don't think that's completely wrong, I just think they undervalue other things the run does (keeps defenses honest, wears down defenses, etc). Passing the ball is still the name of the game in the NFL, but the Raiders are showing that if you can run the ball effectively and pass the ball okay, you can be a pretty good team.






3JACK

[kamandi]

That methodology I think is similar to how Bellichick's motto of each player doing his job. The player focuses on what he's responsible for, and just trusts the rest of the guys to do their job too. It results in a much more disciplined defense where people are where they're supposed to be. It's very different from players trying too hard to help other players, and neglecting their own responsibilities on the field.

On rushing, I believe that a team with a solid rushing offense will play consistently and almost never lose to opponents they are much better than. Passing is such a volatile approach, where so many things can go wrong, that a team that relies too heavily on this can be beaten by worse teams.

Though Flacco is a very good talent that the Ravens brought up properly, the Ravens stability on offense comes from their rushing. The Chargers have become more of a pass oriented team since Norv took over, and they're really good at it, but they seemed like a more consistent team under Schottenheimer when their identity was with the run. Really, the Chargers have no business losing to some of the teams they've lost to this season. Same thing with the Cowboys; they're a much more talented team than the opponents they've lost to. I believe they have to fully maximize their 3 talented RBs, and force opponents to try and stop them.

[Richie3Jack]

I was listening to a Jimmy Johnson interview from 2 years ago and he said it perfectly. The problem with the Cowboys is that they have players that will make a lot of great plays, but a lot of bad plays. And the fans, media, coaches, players and Jerry look at all of those great plays as 'talent.' But the reality of the NFL is the best teams are the ones that make the fewest bad plays and the Cowboys do not realize it.

Believe it or not, I'm not some Jimmy Johnson diehard fan. Often times he rubs me the wrong way and he was IMO, pretty ungrateful to Jerry when he was in Dallas. But I thought that statement was pretty profound and nailed things on the head.

Anyway, I've never met an O-Lineman that said that they would prefer to pass block over run blocking. And I've yet to hear a defensive players say that they are more worried about the pass than the run.

It's not that they are 100% correct, but I think there is some validity to it and a team that has balanced *play calling* (not necessarily balanced production) I think will tend to wear out the defense in the end and keep them off balance so they cannot just tee off on the QB. I think once you get any more than passing 55% of the time, you can win...but it's going to be hard to win a Super Bowl doing that because eventually your unwillingness to run will catch up to you.






3JACK