Post by Richie3Jack on Nov 11, 2010 8:07:10 GMT -5
Here’s week 10 proj. wins based off of TSHI
Tennessee Titans………………..12.31
Green Bay Packers………………..11.912
Kansas City Chiefs………………..11.03
Indianapolis Colts………………..10.80
New York Jets………………..10.65
New York Giants………………..10.61
New Orleans Saints………………..10.43
Pittsburgh Steelers………………..10.29
Atlanta Falcons………………..10.14
Baltimore Ravens………………..9.94
Detroit Lions………………..9.57
New England Patriots………………..9.56
St. Louis Rams………………..9.24
San Diego Chargers………………..8.93
Philadelphia Eagles………………..8.82
Cincinnati Bengals………………..8.167
Chicago Bears………………..8.12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers………………..8.09
Cleveland Browns………………..7.45
Oakland Raiders………………..7.08
Washington Redskins………………..6.93
Miami Dolphins………………..6.78
Seattle Seahawks………………..6.08
Denver Broncos………………..5.90
Minnesota Vikings………………..5.87
San Francisco 49ers………………..5.62
Jacksonville Jaguars………………..5.02
Houston Texans………………..5.01
Dallas Cowboys………………..4.46
Arizona Cardinals………………..4.24
Buffalo Bills………………..3.42
Carolina Panthers………………..2.85
Projected Records:
AFC East
NY Jets 11-5
New England 10-6
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 3-13
The AFC is likely to have one very good team miss the postseason because it appears that one of the wildcard teams will go 11-5 and the other wildcard team will go 10-6. I think you’ll see a wildcard team out of the AFC South, be it the Titans or the Colts (at this point, it looks like the Colts). The Jets need to get their offense going as it’s pretty much the only thing holding them back. Their QB rating is 80.9 which ranks 20th in the NFL and they are 15th in offensive points per yard. The Pats have no defense, ranking 20th in QB Rating allowed and 23rd in points allowed. Without Moss, I could very well see the Pats not making the postseason with the lineup of @ Steelers, Indy, @ Lions (I deceptively tough team), NYJ, @ Bears, and the Packers coming up.
Miami is kind of dreadful to watch and it shows that once teams figured out The Wildcat, that they are still reeling from the 1-15 talent they had a few years ago. They protect the QB well (4th in Adjust. Sacks Allowed) and keep the points allowed pretty reasonable (ranked 17th). The Bills had a pretty good offense until Ryan Fitzpatrick took over. I think they are in the Andrew Luck, Jake Locker, and Ryan Mallett sweepstakes.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 7-9
The Steelers are pretty strong everywhere again, except for protecting Big Ben (nothing new, happens every year) and surprisingly their pass defense has been average this year, ranking 15th in QB rating allowed. They are stronger statistically from an all-around perspective than the Ravens, who seemed to have struggled offensively this year and are just starting to turn it around. It’s a classic case of the team that has to work out the kinks and starts to hit their stride (Ravens) vs. the team that is very strong but has a couple of weak spots that they need to overcome.
The Bengals are pretty mediocre everywhere except for turnover margin (11th) and protecting Carson Palmer. Cleveland’s best facet is that they’ve been a typical ‘bend but don’t break team.’ Their passing defense isn’t even good (24th in QB Rating Allowed), but they just don’t give up much points for as many yards as they give up.
AFC South
Tennessee 12-4
Indianapolis 11-5
Jacksonville 5-11
Houston 5-11
The Titans are in the top 10 in every category I use for the formula, except for Adjusted Sacks Allowed. To me, they are the team to beat in the NFL right now. The Colts are the same old Colts, even with the Dallas Clark injury. Still very good on offense and still having to carry that defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans fall off the face of the earth because looking at their stats, I’m surprised they managed to win 4 games so far. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them finish out 1-7 or 2-6.
AFC West
Kansas City 11-5
San Diego 9-7
Oakland 7-9
Denver 6-10
The Chiefs are either above average to pretty good in every category that I look at. And it doesn’t appear that the Oakland loss effected them statistically. San Diego is the league’s best team when it comes to the passing game battle (1st in QBRD). They are 5th in QB Rating Allowed (a defensive stat), but are 30th in Defensive Points Per Yard Allowed. That’s how bad their special teams play has been. They also have a -9 turnover margin, ranking 29th. The Raiders may be the team that rises out of this. They got off to a slow start but have come on as of late. They basically run the ball very well with McFadden (who is having a great year), they protect the football and then can have Lechler boot it deep and Janikowski is still a good kickoff guy. It’s very Chuck Knox-ish, but still works. I think their best shot is to beat out the Chiefs for a playoff spot, but I think there’s a slight chance they’ll go 10-6 and win a wildcard. But my guess is that they go 8-8 with the remaining schedule that they have.
NFC East
NY Giants 11-5
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 7-9
Dallas 4-12
The G-Men have come on lately, but their turnovers would concern me. They are 31st in Defensive Points Per Yard and it’s probably due to their high turnover rate. The Eagles problem seems to be giving up the big play on defense. They are 4th in QB Rating Allowed, but 24th in defensive points per yard and 20th in points allowed.
Washington is a bit hard to figure out. They are 5th in Defensive Points Per Yard, but are below average in every other defensive and offensive category, except for turnover margin (3rd). My guess is that the Bears game with DeAngelo Hall making 4 picks probably has skewed the numbers a bit.
And Dallas is woeful. They actually improved their offensive points per yards, but has gone down in everything else since the Kitna days. I think they’ve gone down about 4 projected wins in the past 2 weeks alone. Yikes.
NFC North
Green Bay 12-4
Detroit 10-6
Chicago 8-8
Minnesota 6-10
I gotta give Mike McCarthey credit, every year he finds a way to have an excellent QBRD which correlates so strongly to winning and losing in the league and right now the Pack is ranked 2nd in that category. But they are doing it more with the defense whereas in the past they did it more with the offense. The offense’s QB Rating is 90.1 which is decent, but it shows that it’s not as effective as it once was and they need to stay healthy because the defense is making this team.
In the beginning of the year I thought Detroit could be a team that has the ability to win 8 games but probably wouldn’t get over the stigma of the 0-16 season in ’08. It appears to be so because their stats are quite strong. 3rd in NAPPY, 2nd in Adj. Sacks Allowed, 12th in turnover margin, and they’ve been doing it without Matt Stafford and losing games they should’ve won. Chicago is still Chicago, great defense that creates turnovers, lousy offense that can’t stop turning the ball over.
I know Vikings fans are excited over the Cardinals win, but the Cards are a pretty lousy team this season that is ‘coached up’ by Whisenhunt.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 10-6
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 3-13
Turnovers are killing the Saints this year. They are 8th in QB Rating and 6th in QBRD, but 24th in offensive points per yards and have a -3 turnover margin. It should be a classic battle between the Saints and the Falcons since the Falcons weakness is pass defense and their strength is turnover margin.
Tampa defends the pass well 9th in QB rating allowed and are good at winning the turnover battle (5th), but not much to write home about anywhere else. My guess is that they struggle against the run and have some special teams issues. The Panthers are horrible at everything except for pass defense (7th). That can be deceiving because if you know a team cannot beat you unless you turn the ball over, then not only do you start running the ball, but get very conservative in the passing game.
NFC WEST
St. Louis 9-7
Seattle 6-10
San Francisco 6-10
Arizona 4-12
Well, this division sucks as a whole. St. Louis is very good at not giving up points and protecting Sam Bradford. I was listening to Peter King on Sirius the other day and he said he would NOT vote Bradford for ROTY. I said to myself ‘you know that Peter King is dying to vote for some Patriots player.’ And I was right (and I predicted who he would vote for), Aaron freaking Hernandez. At the time, Hernandez had YET to score a TD…but he’s King’s ROTY so far. I wanted to call in and tell King he’s nothing more than a fanboy, but I had to go to work.
Anyway, the unique team here is the Cards who are ranked 4th in offensive points per yard and that netted them being ranked 6th in NAPPY which has a very high correlation to winning. But they are very bad to horrendous in every other category.
3JACK
Tennessee Titans………………..12.31
Green Bay Packers………………..11.912
Kansas City Chiefs………………..11.03
Indianapolis Colts………………..10.80
New York Jets………………..10.65
New York Giants………………..10.61
New Orleans Saints………………..10.43
Pittsburgh Steelers………………..10.29
Atlanta Falcons………………..10.14
Baltimore Ravens………………..9.94
Detroit Lions………………..9.57
New England Patriots………………..9.56
St. Louis Rams………………..9.24
San Diego Chargers………………..8.93
Philadelphia Eagles………………..8.82
Cincinnati Bengals………………..8.167
Chicago Bears………………..8.12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers………………..8.09
Cleveland Browns………………..7.45
Oakland Raiders………………..7.08
Washington Redskins………………..6.93
Miami Dolphins………………..6.78
Seattle Seahawks………………..6.08
Denver Broncos………………..5.90
Minnesota Vikings………………..5.87
San Francisco 49ers………………..5.62
Jacksonville Jaguars………………..5.02
Houston Texans………………..5.01
Dallas Cowboys………………..4.46
Arizona Cardinals………………..4.24
Buffalo Bills………………..3.42
Carolina Panthers………………..2.85
Projected Records:
AFC East
NY Jets 11-5
New England 10-6
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 3-13
The AFC is likely to have one very good team miss the postseason because it appears that one of the wildcard teams will go 11-5 and the other wildcard team will go 10-6. I think you’ll see a wildcard team out of the AFC South, be it the Titans or the Colts (at this point, it looks like the Colts). The Jets need to get their offense going as it’s pretty much the only thing holding them back. Their QB rating is 80.9 which ranks 20th in the NFL and they are 15th in offensive points per yard. The Pats have no defense, ranking 20th in QB Rating allowed and 23rd in points allowed. Without Moss, I could very well see the Pats not making the postseason with the lineup of @ Steelers, Indy, @ Lions (I deceptively tough team), NYJ, @ Bears, and the Packers coming up.
Miami is kind of dreadful to watch and it shows that once teams figured out The Wildcat, that they are still reeling from the 1-15 talent they had a few years ago. They protect the QB well (4th in Adjust. Sacks Allowed) and keep the points allowed pretty reasonable (ranked 17th). The Bills had a pretty good offense until Ryan Fitzpatrick took over. I think they are in the Andrew Luck, Jake Locker, and Ryan Mallett sweepstakes.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 7-9
The Steelers are pretty strong everywhere again, except for protecting Big Ben (nothing new, happens every year) and surprisingly their pass defense has been average this year, ranking 15th in QB rating allowed. They are stronger statistically from an all-around perspective than the Ravens, who seemed to have struggled offensively this year and are just starting to turn it around. It’s a classic case of the team that has to work out the kinks and starts to hit their stride (Ravens) vs. the team that is very strong but has a couple of weak spots that they need to overcome.
The Bengals are pretty mediocre everywhere except for turnover margin (11th) and protecting Carson Palmer. Cleveland’s best facet is that they’ve been a typical ‘bend but don’t break team.’ Their passing defense isn’t even good (24th in QB Rating Allowed), but they just don’t give up much points for as many yards as they give up.
AFC South
Tennessee 12-4
Indianapolis 11-5
Jacksonville 5-11
Houston 5-11
The Titans are in the top 10 in every category I use for the formula, except for Adjusted Sacks Allowed. To me, they are the team to beat in the NFL right now. The Colts are the same old Colts, even with the Dallas Clark injury. Still very good on offense and still having to carry that defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans fall off the face of the earth because looking at their stats, I’m surprised they managed to win 4 games so far. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them finish out 1-7 or 2-6.
AFC West
Kansas City 11-5
San Diego 9-7
Oakland 7-9
Denver 6-10
The Chiefs are either above average to pretty good in every category that I look at. And it doesn’t appear that the Oakland loss effected them statistically. San Diego is the league’s best team when it comes to the passing game battle (1st in QBRD). They are 5th in QB Rating Allowed (a defensive stat), but are 30th in Defensive Points Per Yard Allowed. That’s how bad their special teams play has been. They also have a -9 turnover margin, ranking 29th. The Raiders may be the team that rises out of this. They got off to a slow start but have come on as of late. They basically run the ball very well with McFadden (who is having a great year), they protect the football and then can have Lechler boot it deep and Janikowski is still a good kickoff guy. It’s very Chuck Knox-ish, but still works. I think their best shot is to beat out the Chiefs for a playoff spot, but I think there’s a slight chance they’ll go 10-6 and win a wildcard. But my guess is that they go 8-8 with the remaining schedule that they have.
NFC East
NY Giants 11-5
Philadelphia 9-7
Washington 7-9
Dallas 4-12
The G-Men have come on lately, but their turnovers would concern me. They are 31st in Defensive Points Per Yard and it’s probably due to their high turnover rate. The Eagles problem seems to be giving up the big play on defense. They are 4th in QB Rating Allowed, but 24th in defensive points per yard and 20th in points allowed.
Washington is a bit hard to figure out. They are 5th in Defensive Points Per Yard, but are below average in every other defensive and offensive category, except for turnover margin (3rd). My guess is that the Bears game with DeAngelo Hall making 4 picks probably has skewed the numbers a bit.
And Dallas is woeful. They actually improved their offensive points per yards, but has gone down in everything else since the Kitna days. I think they’ve gone down about 4 projected wins in the past 2 weeks alone. Yikes.
NFC North
Green Bay 12-4
Detroit 10-6
Chicago 8-8
Minnesota 6-10
I gotta give Mike McCarthey credit, every year he finds a way to have an excellent QBRD which correlates so strongly to winning and losing in the league and right now the Pack is ranked 2nd in that category. But they are doing it more with the defense whereas in the past they did it more with the offense. The offense’s QB Rating is 90.1 which is decent, but it shows that it’s not as effective as it once was and they need to stay healthy because the defense is making this team.
In the beginning of the year I thought Detroit could be a team that has the ability to win 8 games but probably wouldn’t get over the stigma of the 0-16 season in ’08. It appears to be so because their stats are quite strong. 3rd in NAPPY, 2nd in Adj. Sacks Allowed, 12th in turnover margin, and they’ve been doing it without Matt Stafford and losing games they should’ve won. Chicago is still Chicago, great defense that creates turnovers, lousy offense that can’t stop turning the ball over.
I know Vikings fans are excited over the Cardinals win, but the Cards are a pretty lousy team this season that is ‘coached up’ by Whisenhunt.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 10-6
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 3-13
Turnovers are killing the Saints this year. They are 8th in QB Rating and 6th in QBRD, but 24th in offensive points per yards and have a -3 turnover margin. It should be a classic battle between the Saints and the Falcons since the Falcons weakness is pass defense and their strength is turnover margin.
Tampa defends the pass well 9th in QB rating allowed and are good at winning the turnover battle (5th), but not much to write home about anywhere else. My guess is that they struggle against the run and have some special teams issues. The Panthers are horrible at everything except for pass defense (7th). That can be deceiving because if you know a team cannot beat you unless you turn the ball over, then not only do you start running the ball, but get very conservative in the passing game.
NFC WEST
St. Louis 9-7
Seattle 6-10
San Francisco 6-10
Arizona 4-12
Well, this division sucks as a whole. St. Louis is very good at not giving up points and protecting Sam Bradford. I was listening to Peter King on Sirius the other day and he said he would NOT vote Bradford for ROTY. I said to myself ‘you know that Peter King is dying to vote for some Patriots player.’ And I was right (and I predicted who he would vote for), Aaron freaking Hernandez. At the time, Hernandez had YET to score a TD…but he’s King’s ROTY so far. I wanted to call in and tell King he’s nothing more than a fanboy, but I had to go to work.
Anyway, the unique team here is the Cards who are ranked 4th in offensive points per yard and that netted them being ranked 6th in NAPPY which has a very high correlation to winning. But they are very bad to horrendous in every other category.
3JACK