Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 8, 2010 15:50:10 GMT -5
Here's the updated projections thru the first 3 quarters of the season.
New England Patriots………12.82
Green Bay Packers………12.04
Atlanta Falcons………11.29
Kansas City Chiefs………11.01
New Orleans Saints………10.49
New York Giants………10.36
Pittsburgh Steelers………10.06
Tampa Bay Buccaneers………9.74
Philadelphia Eagles………9.73
San Diego Chargers………9.67
Tennessee Titans………9.56
St. Louis Rams………9.50
Baltimore Ravens………9.46
New York Jets………9.22
Chicago Bears………9.14
Indianapolis Colts………8.86
Cleveland Browns………7.94
Detroit Lions………7.65
Miami Dolphins………7.30
Dallas Cowboys………7.07
Cincinnati Bengals………6.88
Houston Texans………6.62
Seattle Seahawks………6.61
Oakland Raiders………5.96
Denver Broncos………5.60
Buffalo Bills………5.59
Washington Redskins………5.50
Minnesota Vikings………5.41
Jacksonville Jaguars………4.86
San Francisco 49ers………4.70
Arizona Cardinals………3.01
Carolina Panthers………2.86
So here's the projected records:
AFC East
New England 13-3
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 6-10
The projections are looking pretty close here. The big differences could be the Jets and Buffalo so far. But the Jets have looked awful the last month or so and the Bills have played well the last month or so. The Pats remind me a lot of the '09 Saints. Great offense, weak defense, but they dominate the turnover battle. The Pats are #1 in offensive points scored per yards gained. I use the formula of OPSPYG = (Points Scored/Yards Gained)*1000. The Pats are currently at 89.27. 2nd in this category is the Titans...at 75.16. 3rd is the Eagles at 71.54. So the Pats are just flat out dominating here. I think a big key for a team to beat the Pats is hold their scoring down in the first quarter. The Pats are really good at racking up points early, getting the lead and then hanging on. Gotta say though, I've watched 5 Pats games this year and I don't get all of the fuss over Jerod Mayo.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 9-7
Cleveland 8-8
Cincinnati 6-10
The projections are looking decent here as well outside of the Bengals. What's hurt the Ravens this year is their offense. They don't protect Flacco all that well and they don't do well in the points scored to yards gained category (20th). They do pass the ball relatively well, but they may just be dinking and dunking, although that's not really the way O-C Cam Cameron designs his offenses. I wonder if they have some issues in punt and kickoff returns.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee 9-7
Indianapolis 9-7
Houston 7-9
Jacksonville 7-9
These projections are crazy becasue the Colts started out well, got injured and are now going down the tank. Tennessee started out super strong and then all hell broke loose. I was listening to Sirius and to a Titans fan talking about how overrated he thought Jeff Fisher was. I think he has a great point...Fisher only has 6 winning seasons in 17 years of coaching. The show hosts then went to say 'Jeff Fisher would be offered a new job in 10 minutes if he was fired by Bud Adams.' I wish the caller would've replied 'then that's their problem, not ours.'
AFC WEST
Kansas City 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Oakland 6-10
Denver 6-10
The Chiefs are very sound in the stats I measure. The worst they rank is 14th, in offense points per yards gained. The Chargers are still not out of it, but they need to go 4-0 down the stretch. That's actually possible with the schedule of: KC, SF, @ Cincy and @ Denver
NFC EAST
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
Dallas 7-9
Washington 5-11
Probably most striking about the Cowboys is how well they've improved in the offensive points scored per yards gained statistic. With Wade they ranked 30th. 4 games under Garrett and now they are 12th. Of course, that's not all offense with rookie Brian McCann getting a 102 yard INT return and a 97 yard punt return. And the 2 INT's for TD's last week against the Colts. Statistically, the G-Men and Eagles are neck and neck. The G-Men are more traditional whereas the Eagles seem more like a boom or bust type of team.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay 12-4
Chicago 9-7
Detroit 6-10
Minnesota 5-11
Statistically I like the Packers the most because they are strong in every category except for Adjust Sacks Allowed. I'll take being a bit weak there over the Pats who are weak in pass defense (20th) and points allowed (18th). Funny enough, the Packers rank 1st in both of those categories. The Bears are projected to not win out. That's not completely unlikely with a schedule of New England, @ Minny, NYJ and @ Green Bay.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta 11-5
New Orleans 10-6
Tampa Bay 10-6
Carolina 3-13
Atlanta could wind up being the team that loses at home during the playoffs, mainly because they are weak in pass defense and not exactly tearing it up on passing offense. The Saints had some struggles on offense early on, got those situated, went on a nice run, and now are struggling on defense. Tampa is a sound team that does well in the turnover battle (+7) and in pass defense (4th)
NFC WEST
St. Louis 10-6
Seattle 6-10
San Francisco 5-11
Arizona 3-13
I didn't know that the Seahawks are 6-6 until now. It feels like they are 4-8. The Rams are pretty good defensively, which hasn't been muttered about the Rams since the John Robinson days.
3JACK
New England Patriots………12.82
Green Bay Packers………12.04
Atlanta Falcons………11.29
Kansas City Chiefs………11.01
New Orleans Saints………10.49
New York Giants………10.36
Pittsburgh Steelers………10.06
Tampa Bay Buccaneers………9.74
Philadelphia Eagles………9.73
San Diego Chargers………9.67
Tennessee Titans………9.56
St. Louis Rams………9.50
Baltimore Ravens………9.46
New York Jets………9.22
Chicago Bears………9.14
Indianapolis Colts………8.86
Cleveland Browns………7.94
Detroit Lions………7.65
Miami Dolphins………7.30
Dallas Cowboys………7.07
Cincinnati Bengals………6.88
Houston Texans………6.62
Seattle Seahawks………6.61
Oakland Raiders………5.96
Denver Broncos………5.60
Buffalo Bills………5.59
Washington Redskins………5.50
Minnesota Vikings………5.41
Jacksonville Jaguars………4.86
San Francisco 49ers………4.70
Arizona Cardinals………3.01
Carolina Panthers………2.86
So here's the projected records:
AFC East
New England 13-3
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 6-10
The projections are looking pretty close here. The big differences could be the Jets and Buffalo so far. But the Jets have looked awful the last month or so and the Bills have played well the last month or so. The Pats remind me a lot of the '09 Saints. Great offense, weak defense, but they dominate the turnover battle. The Pats are #1 in offensive points scored per yards gained. I use the formula of OPSPYG = (Points Scored/Yards Gained)*1000. The Pats are currently at 89.27. 2nd in this category is the Titans...at 75.16. 3rd is the Eagles at 71.54. So the Pats are just flat out dominating here. I think a big key for a team to beat the Pats is hold their scoring down in the first quarter. The Pats are really good at racking up points early, getting the lead and then hanging on. Gotta say though, I've watched 5 Pats games this year and I don't get all of the fuss over Jerod Mayo.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 9-7
Cleveland 8-8
Cincinnati 6-10
The projections are looking decent here as well outside of the Bengals. What's hurt the Ravens this year is their offense. They don't protect Flacco all that well and they don't do well in the points scored to yards gained category (20th). They do pass the ball relatively well, but they may just be dinking and dunking, although that's not really the way O-C Cam Cameron designs his offenses. I wonder if they have some issues in punt and kickoff returns.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee 9-7
Indianapolis 9-7
Houston 7-9
Jacksonville 7-9
These projections are crazy becasue the Colts started out well, got injured and are now going down the tank. Tennessee started out super strong and then all hell broke loose. I was listening to Sirius and to a Titans fan talking about how overrated he thought Jeff Fisher was. I think he has a great point...Fisher only has 6 winning seasons in 17 years of coaching. The show hosts then went to say 'Jeff Fisher would be offered a new job in 10 minutes if he was fired by Bud Adams.' I wish the caller would've replied 'then that's their problem, not ours.'
AFC WEST
Kansas City 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Oakland 6-10
Denver 6-10
The Chiefs are very sound in the stats I measure. The worst they rank is 14th, in offense points per yards gained. The Chargers are still not out of it, but they need to go 4-0 down the stretch. That's actually possible with the schedule of: KC, SF, @ Cincy and @ Denver
NFC EAST
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
Dallas 7-9
Washington 5-11
Probably most striking about the Cowboys is how well they've improved in the offensive points scored per yards gained statistic. With Wade they ranked 30th. 4 games under Garrett and now they are 12th. Of course, that's not all offense with rookie Brian McCann getting a 102 yard INT return and a 97 yard punt return. And the 2 INT's for TD's last week against the Colts. Statistically, the G-Men and Eagles are neck and neck. The G-Men are more traditional whereas the Eagles seem more like a boom or bust type of team.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay 12-4
Chicago 9-7
Detroit 6-10
Minnesota 5-11
Statistically I like the Packers the most because they are strong in every category except for Adjust Sacks Allowed. I'll take being a bit weak there over the Pats who are weak in pass defense (20th) and points allowed (18th). Funny enough, the Packers rank 1st in both of those categories. The Bears are projected to not win out. That's not completely unlikely with a schedule of New England, @ Minny, NYJ and @ Green Bay.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta 11-5
New Orleans 10-6
Tampa Bay 10-6
Carolina 3-13
Atlanta could wind up being the team that loses at home during the playoffs, mainly because they are weak in pass defense and not exactly tearing it up on passing offense. The Saints had some struggles on offense early on, got those situated, went on a nice run, and now are struggling on defense. Tampa is a sound team that does well in the turnover battle (+7) and in pass defense (4th)
NFC WEST
St. Louis 10-6
Seattle 6-10
San Francisco 5-11
Arizona 3-13
I didn't know that the Seahawks are 6-6 until now. It feels like they are 4-8. The Rams are pretty good defensively, which hasn't been muttered about the Rams since the John Robinson days.
3JACK