3Jack's Final NFL Proj. Wins and Postseason Thread

[Richie3Jack]

Here’s the final projected wins based off of TSHI

New England Patriots……….15.10
Atlanta Falcons…………….….12.46
Green Bay Packers…..……….12.01
Pittsburgh Steelers…..……….11.13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers…….10.70
Baltimore Ravens……………..10.41
New York Jets…………………….10.12
New Orleans Saints………..….9.83
Kansas City Chiefs………….….9.78
San Diego Chargers……...…….9.69
New York Giants………………....9.26
Tennessee Titans………………...8.96
Indianapolis Colts……………..8.94
Chicago Bears………………...….8.85
Detroit Lions……………………...8.77
St. Louis Rams…….…………..….8.70
Philadelphia Eagles…..……….8.29
Dallas Cowboys…………...…….7.24
Cincinnati Bengals…….……….7.15
Houston Texans…………...…….6.68
Cleveland Browns………..…….6.68
Oakland Raiders………….…….6.65
Miami Dolphins……………..….6.03
San Francisco 49ers….……….5.84
Seattle Seahawks…………...….5.78
Washington Redskins……..….5.67
Denver Broncos………………….5.43
Minnesota Vikings…………..….5.06
Jacksonville Jaguars………..….4.49
Buffalo Bills………………………..4.34
Arizona Cardinals………...…….4.28
Carolina Panthers…………...….2.64


Here’s the list of playoff teams and their projected wins:

AFC

New England 15.10
Pittsburgh 11.13
Baltimore 10.41
NY Jets 10.12
Kansas City 9.78
Indianapolis 8.94

NFC

Atlanta 12.46
Green Bay 12.01
New Orleans 9.83
Chicago 8.85
Philadelphia 8.29
Seattle 5.78

Probably what sticks out here is Indy and Philly because we aren’t used to seeing Indy looking this poorly (even though they made the playoffs) and Philly looks nowhere near good statistically as they do on TV. Although I think if Kevin Kolb doesn’t suffer a concussion in Week 1 against the Packers, the Eagles don’t make the playoffs.

I think given the injuries, the Packers are the real sleeper here if they can stay healthy and Rodgers comes alive. New Orleans lower projected wins indicate to me that they have some issues that will catch up to them. And obviously, the Pats are the favorites.

From 2000 – 2006, the NFL average 4 teams a season that made the playoffs despite a losing record in the prior season. I have dubbed that the ‘Fab Four of the NFL.’ Of course, come 2007-2010 we haven’t reached that number of 4 teams in the postseason despite having a losing record in the prior season.

The main reason why is that there was a low amount of teams with losing records in those seasons. This year I projected that there would be a ‘Fab Three’ because there were only 12 teams with losing records in 2009. My predictions were that Miami, Kansas City and Seattle would make the postseason. Instead, it was KC, Chicago and Seattle that made the postseason with Tampa Bay going 10-6 and narrowly missing the playoffs.

Typically the ‘Fab Four’ teams usually consist of a veteran QB who is at least an average QB. The other conditions are if they have a young and up-n-coming QB or if they have a coach who has had a good record and in particular, made the postseason with that team before.

Looking at the Fab Three teams this year…KC has a decent, veteran QB in Matt Cassel. Chicago has a decent veteran QB in Cutler and a coach who has had postseason success with them before in Lovie Smith. Seattle has a pretty decent coach in Carroll and one could argue in favor of Matt Hasselbeck.

My projections for 2011, assuming they do play in 2011, are there will be a Fab Four if not a Fab Five because there are 17 teams with losing records in 2010.

My top candidates are:

Some NFC West team (everybody had a losing record, my guess is the Rams)
Dallas (Romo)
Detroit (Stafford and Schwartz, up-n-comers)
Houston (Schaub)
Tennessee (Fisher)
Miami (Sparano)
Cincinnati (Palmer and Lewis)
Washington (Shanahan)






3JACK

[secondary]

I have kept quiet about the Bears since early on, but I can't believe the lack of love that still persist? All the Lions yakking early on and now still we are talking about them next year? Don't get me wrong they are my second favorite in the division behind the Bears, but damn, the Bears look a lot different now then they did at the start of the year. I was really pissed at Martz and how things were going early on, but I think he did a good job midway through making adjustments. The O Line got healthy which helps, but Martz stopped throwing on every down, commited to the run, and he let Culter take 3-5 step drops instead of 7 every time. I didn't think he had it him to change on the fly, but it has been a nice surprise.

I had a feeling about Seattle because it is just a real hard place to play and Hasselbeck is a pretty solid Vetern. I don't think the Bears are a lock by any means, but I do like their chances and I especially like that NO ONE is giving them any chance to do anything this post season.

Thanks for the solid stats and analysis this year Richie, really enjoyed it.

[Richie3Jack]

I did say that I thought the Bears were boom or bust material and most people laughed at the notion I thought they could be boom material. I don't think the ST and Defense is as strong as it was in '05 and '06, but the offense is better and more stable. Still, the offense has a ways to go IMO. One of the reasons why I thought they may be boom material is because I thought Lovie would work as an editor for Martz's playcalling much like Vermeil did in St. Louis.

Early on Martz was just like post-Vermeil Martz, but Lovie put a lid on it and now they have a pretty sufficient offense with a lot of potential. Although if I were D-Coordinators, I'd blitz a lot from the weak side because Cutler will throw a bad pass across his body sooner or later.






3JACK