|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 5, 2012 8:45:45 GMT -5
Here's the final, regular season, projected wins. In parentheses is the difference between projected wins (rounded off) and actual wins.
Green Bay Packers…………………...13.23…(+2)
San Francisco 49ers………………….12.57…(0)
New England Patriots………………..12.18…(+1)
New Orleans Saints…………………..11.50…(+1)
Baltimore Ravens……………………...10.86…(+1)
Houston Texans………………………..10.52…(-1)
Detroit Lions……………………………..10.44…(0)
Atlanta Falcons………………………….9.86…(0)
Tennessee Titans……………………….9.80…(-1)
Cincinnati Bengals……………………..9.47…(0)
Dallas Cowboys………………………...9.18…(-1)
New York Giants………………………..9.09…(0)
Seattle Seahawks……………………...8.98…(-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers…………………...8.78…(+3)
New York Jets…………………………...8.68…(-1)
Miami Dolphins……………………...7.48…(-1)
Buffalo Bills…………………………….7.46…(-1)
San Diego Chargers………………..7.46…(+1)
Cleveland Browns…………………..7.45…(-3)
Philadelphia Eagles……………….7.40…(+1)
Oakland Raiders…………………...7.21…(+1)
Chicago Bears……………………….7.15…(+1)
Kansas City Chiefs………………...6.16…(+1)
Jacksonville Jaguars……………..6.10…(-1)
Carolina Panthers………………...5.93…(0)
Arizona Cardinals………………..5.39…(+3)
Washington Redskins…………..5.15…(0)
Denver Broncos…………………...3.98…(+4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers……….3.69…(0)
Indianapolis Colts…………..….3.24…(-1)
St. Louis Rams………………….….3.21…(-1)
Minnesota Vikings……………...3.01…(0)
I think the NFC playoffs will probably wind up being better thant he AFC.
San Francisco actually resembles a Super Bowl winner, from a statistical standpoint, the best out of all of the teams. They had over 40 sacks on defense this year, they are 2nd in points allowed and have a positive turnover margin.
Green Bay's inability to get to the QB would worry me. But, I think the lockout has made it so the league has become more offensive oriented and in particular pass happy this year compared to other years.
Cincinnati also has some good metrics. The Saints have some sketchy metrics, but greatly improved in those areas over the past 2 months.
I'll go with a Ravens vs. Packers Super Bowl (my preseason prediction) for now.
3JACK
|
|
|
|
Post by mchepp on Jan 5, 2012 13:29:52 GMT -5
I totally agree the 49ers have the good stats but your stats don't take into account clutch QB play. I think the Saints will beat us because Brees has more post season experience and is better in the clutch.
|
|
|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 5, 2012 13:49:05 GMT -5
Here's my awards:
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
His outrageous QB Rating pretty much gives this to him although I think Matt Flynn may have pointed out that the Packers have a better corp of WR's and offensive system than people think. I also think Mike McCarthey is a far better head coach than given credit for and I'm talking like possibly 'Bill Walsh' type of greatness.
Seriously.
Look at his metrics as a coach, even during the 6-10 season.
He's THAT great.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen DE (Minnesota)
The NFL took a turn for the worse for me this year as it became a hyper-pass heavy league. I think this not only caused many offensive records to be broken, but a big dearth in running the ball and a boom in QB sacks. So what happens is that you don't get a player that really stands out, just a bunch of great players who have their own justifiable reasons to throne. I gave this to Allen over Justin Smith because I think Allen plays in a tougher division. I gave it to Allen over DeMarcus Ware because Ware makes too many stupid penalties.
NFL MVP: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)
Yes, the Peyton Manning that did not play a snap this season. Has there ever been a better endorsement for just how great Peyton is than this year. This is the same team he took to a 36-12 record the previous 3 years and now they go 2-14 without him.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Cam Newton (Carolina)
I know some wanted to give it to Andy Dalton, but I just don't see it. Newton looks like he could be a top-5 QB of all time at this rate. Sure, there is a LOT of work to do, but I think he has shown that much potential in his game.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Aldon Smith (San Francisco)
I was thinking about Von Miller here as well. But, Miller does have an excellent 3-4 OLB pass rusher beside him in Elvis Dumervil. Both rookies were great this year.
COACH OF THE YEAR: Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco)
As a Dallas fan who is in favor of Jason Garrett, I'm still jealous that the Cowboys did not get Harbaugh. I believe that he may have some issues next year with Alex Smith. However, I believe that what we will see in the next 5 years are some teams who start to come up with more creative ways to run the ball and use play action against all of these 3-4 schemes and nobody was more creative in ways to run the ball this year than Harbaugh. I think these pass happy offensive teams will start to realize the limitations when teams like the Niners are able to balance out the playcalling and preserve their defense and we'll eventually start seeing teams going back to more 4 down linemen schemes to counter these offenses that run the ball. I think Harbaugh will beat most of the league to the punch on this.
3JACK
|
|
|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 5, 2012 13:54:57 GMT -5
Out of the projected wins, 26 of the 32 teams were within + or - 1 from the projected wins.
two teams were within +/- 2 of the projected wins (Green Bay and Seattle).
The rest were:
Denver (+4)
Arizona (+3)
Pittsburgh (+3)
Cleveland (-3)
3JACK
|
|
|
|
Post by iacas on Jan 5, 2012 17:52:02 GMT -5
By definition Peyton wasn't a "Player" this year so you can't give him the MVP. C'mon... :-)
|
|
|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 5, 2012 21:33:30 GMT -5
Who said the 'P' stood for 'player?' Could be 'Most Valuable Person' or 'Most Valuable Peyton.'  3JACK |
|
|
|
Post by cwdlaw223 on Jan 5, 2012 21:43:44 GMT -5
I just want to say that in my mind the Eagles already won the SuperBowl already. Anytime we sweep the Cowboys and they don't make the playoffs I feel vindicated and a Lombardi trophy sitting in my warped mind! The hatred goes that deep folks. Too many Cowboy fans gloating with their trophies!!!! F the Steelers as well. An Eagles fan must be jealous and irrational to be a true fan. This might explain a lot!!!!
|
|
jamo
'88 Apex Redlines
Posts: 142
|
Post by jamo on Jan 5, 2012 22:07:48 GMT -5
Who said the 'P' stood for 'player?' Could be 'Most Valuable Person' or 'Most Valuable Peyton.' 3JACK I dunno. Peyton Hillis was riiiiight there for Most Valuable Peyton. Did you do pre-season picks? How did those stack up? |
|
|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 5, 2012 22:11:19 GMT -5
Who said the 'P' stood for 'player?' Could be 'Most Valuable Person' or 'Most Valuable Peyton.' 3JACK I dunno. Peyton Hillis was riiiiight there for Most Valuable Peyton. Did you do pre-season picks? How did those stack up? Standing wise, not so bad. richie3jack.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=nongolf&thread=2729&page=1#24614I did screw up the Eagles though. I actually had them *not* making the playoffs and posted legitimate reasons why that ACTUALLY CAME TRUE. But, no. I was laughed at and told I was some stats dork who didn't know what he was talking about and that line 'there's lies, damned lies and statistics' came out. Well, guess who was right all along. Next time I'll trust the numbers.  3JACK |
|
|
|
Post by mchepp on Jan 6, 2012 0:09:39 GMT -5
Richie,
What are you thoughts on Romo's year? Are you still high on him? This was a big year for him, I thought results this year were mixed.
|
|
|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 6, 2012 8:39:31 GMT -5
I'm probably more 'in between' on Romo than most people I know.
Romo reminds me a bit of how Barry Sanders played at RB. People would often complain how bad Sanders' O-Line was, but in reality they weren't all that bad. Sanders didn't want to run in between the tackles and when defenses tried to force him in between the tackles, even if there was a running lane, he would often times stop and reverse direction. So he would then either make a phenomenal play or lose yardage and then the fans would say 'imagine what Barry would do with a good O-Line.' The reality is he would've probably done the same thing.
Romo tends to do that as well. He'll miss a pre-snap read, not get out of a play, miss a read, etc. That will put him in a bad position and then he's good at escaping out of it. And the fans will say 'gee, if he had a good O-Line he would be the best QB in the game.'
I don't think he's as severe as Sanders was (for my money, Sanders is the most overrated player I've ever seen). But, he has a lot of those traits.
The problem for him is that the center and right guard play was terrible this year. He's a smaller QB, so he needs for them to play well so they don't get pushed into him because he cannot see over the top of them.
I think he improved in certain aspects. Protected the ball much better. Was pretty tough out there (played with broken ribs and won 2 games, played pretty well against the G-Men with a bad hand). Unfortunately, his gaffes against the Jets and Lions cost the team a spot in the playoffs. If there's a silver lining, perhaps the lockout made him 'forget' how important it is to protect the ball in those situations because he didn't have that problem after the Lions game.
I don't think all is lost for Dallas, but some philosophies and value they place on certain areas of personnel has to change. One has to remember, since 1999, only 47% of the division winners have returned the playoffs the next season. Sooooo....you actually have a better chance of *missing* the playoffs the following year if you win the division. That puts the odds against the G-Men in 2012.
I think the Cowboys will really need to improve a lot of things because I think the Eagles are going to be tough to beat last year. It can be done with the right kind of moves. Jerry Jones can certainly find talent. His problem now is he has been unable to mesh skill sets together. For instance, we have some corners who can cover (until Newman's lapse), but not one of them is an above average tackler. So there's talent, but the meshing of skill sets is poor. Combine that with a dearth of team speed on defense, that's when big plays start to be given up.
That and the Cowboys are probably the dumbest team in the NFL. Hurts to say that.
3JACK
|
|
dhc1
'88 Apex Redlines
Posts: 178
|
Post by dhc1 on Jan 6, 2012 10:52:29 GMT -5
Rich,
What would the stats look like if you just used the second half of the season? It would be interesting to compare that to the first half to get trending data, particularly in a season with a short training camp.
|
|
|
|
Post by cwdlaw223 on Jan 6, 2012 13:34:09 GMT -5
I dunno. Peyton Hillis was riiiiight there for Most Valuable Peyton. Did you do pre-season picks? How did those stack up? Standing wise, not so bad. richie3jack.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=nongolf&thread=2729&page=1#24614I did screw up the Eagles though. I actually had them *not* making the playoffs and posted legitimate reasons why that ACTUALLY CAME TRUE. But, no. I was laughed at and told I was some stats dork who didn't know what he was talking about and that line 'there's lies, damned lies and statistics' came out. Well, guess who was right all along. Next time I'll trust the numbers. 3JACK A true Eagles fan ignores the numbers and reality! We make up our own world and change the facts to suit our needs. Once we have our trophy we will start to tell everyone how great we've always been. Mark my words. |
|
|
|
Post by Richie3Jack on Jan 6, 2012 13:38:18 GMT -5
Rich, What would the stats look like if you just used the second half of the season? It would be interesting to compare that to the first half to get trending data, particularly in a season with a short training camp. That would take up a bit too much time. And I really wouldn't put much stock into it anyway because often times injuries start to take their toll and cause good teams to slip. 3JACK |
|
