Post by Richie3Jack on May 9, 2012 12:54:27 GMT -5
I did some research on this last year and my projected standings actually came out more accurate than they have in the past.
Since 1999, only 47% of the teams that have *won* the division have returned the playoffs the following year. Even more shocking, only 38% of division winners have returned to the playoffs since 2008 (meaning that 3/8 divisional winners in 2007 returned to the playoffs in 2008. It has remained that way in 2009, 2010 and 2011).
Furthermore, the league has a tendency to get 3 to 5 of its playoff teams that had losing records the year before. Last year we had 5 teams make the playoffs despite a losing record in 2010. They were:
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texas
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
SF 49ers
First, I see the divisional winners from 2011:
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans Saints
SF 49ers
Then I look at how many teams had a losing record in 2011 (12)
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
KC Chiefs
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
TB Bucs
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
The teams with losing records is a little bit on the low side. Typically, the NFL season will consist of 14 teams with losing records. In 2010, they had 16 teams with losing records. Therefore, it was more likely that there would be of these teams with losing records in 2010 to make the playoffs in 2011. Furthermore, only 3 of the teams who won their division in 2010 made it back to the postseason in 2011 (New England, Pittsburgh and Atlanta).
This year, I project that ‘only’ 3 of the teams with losing records in 2011 will make the playoffs due to the low amount of teams with losing records. What I look for is #1, QB Play. Particularly the profile of being at the least a ‘decent, veteran QB.’ Veterans are very important because it’s too difficult to project when a good, up and coming, young QB will take the team to the playoffs. Matthew Stafford is a good example.
The other thing I look for is for the head coach, particularly if he’s taken *that* team to the playoffs before. Lastly, I look at the division they are in. Tougher the division, the tougher it will be to make the postseason.
Out of those teams with losing records, I like these 3 teams the best.
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
After those teams, I like the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Bucs (in that order). The last tier would probably be the Colts and Redskins because we don’t know how good Luck and RGIII will be in 2013. I think the Colts play in a weaker division, so that’s why I put them slightly ahead of the skins.
As far as the divisional winners go, I will once again project that 4 of the 8 divisional winners will return to the postseason. We’ve only had 5 divisional winners return to the postseason once since 1999, and that was the 2002 divisional winners.
So, outta these guys:
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans Saints
SF 49ers
First, I’ll take the G-Men. Why? Super Bowl winners tend to return to the postseason. I will also take Green Bay. Great, young QB that isn’t injury prone. Next, the Ravens as Flacco is a good but not great, young QB and I don’t see him getting injured. After that? I’ll go with New England right now because they don’t have to make a big adjustment in personnel like the Broncos do and we don’t know about Peyton’s neck. This could change. But, here they are so far:
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
Now I have 5 teams left to pick for the playoffs. These teams either:
A) Had a .500+ record and didn’t make the playoffs
B) Were a wildcard team.
So, I’ll start with the wildcard teams first.
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
Now….this is a little unorthodox because the AFC North sent 3 teams to the playoffs last year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincy). Also, history shows that being a wild card team tends to be a GOOD thing.
Why?
Because on average 3 of the 4 wildcard teams return to the playoffs the next season. Thus, the wildcard team can often get 2 good shots at the Super Bowl. I believe that the reason for this is that the wildcard teams get a little better draft position, they don’t have every team in their division gunning for them and they get a little better schedule since they don’t have to face other division winners.
That’s the real point of all of this…to understand that the NFL is a MACHINE that spits out parity each and every year. But, I digress..
Anyway, I’m going to pick 3 out of the 4 to return to the postseason. And my picks are:
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
I actually had a hard time with this one because I don’t quite like the Lions over the Beas and I’m not too sure on the Steelers vs. the Bengals. But, the league has a history of QB’s that have a great rookie year like Andy Dalton did, then a little lull with a 7-9 to 9-7 season where they miss the playoffs, then stardom after that.
So now we are up to the following teams making the playoffs:
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ll also put them in order of what I have so far by division.
AFC East
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
AFC South
Vacant
AFC West
Vacant
NFC East
NY Giants
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
So, I have the NFC filled out. And we have to get to the AFC South and AFC West divisions.
I believe both of those spots will be filled with teams with .500+ records. My picks are:
Tennessee
San Diego
Thus, my playoff team projections look like this:
AFC
New England
Buffalo
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
San Diego
NFC
NY Giants
Green Bay
Detroit
Atlanta
Carolina
Seattle
Here’s the top 5 teams that I did not list in the playoffs that I think have a good shot at it, in order:
1. Denver Broncos
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Chicago Bears
5. Cincinnati Bengals
3JACK
Since 1999, only 47% of the teams that have *won* the division have returned the playoffs the following year. Even more shocking, only 38% of division winners have returned to the playoffs since 2008 (meaning that 3/8 divisional winners in 2007 returned to the playoffs in 2008. It has remained that way in 2009, 2010 and 2011).
Furthermore, the league has a tendency to get 3 to 5 of its playoff teams that had losing records the year before. Last year we had 5 teams make the playoffs despite a losing record in 2010. They were:
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texas
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
SF 49ers
First, I see the divisional winners from 2011:
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans Saints
SF 49ers
Then I look at how many teams had a losing record in 2011 (12)
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
KC Chiefs
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers
TB Bucs
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
The teams with losing records is a little bit on the low side. Typically, the NFL season will consist of 14 teams with losing records. In 2010, they had 16 teams with losing records. Therefore, it was more likely that there would be of these teams with losing records in 2010 to make the playoffs in 2011. Furthermore, only 3 of the teams who won their division in 2010 made it back to the postseason in 2011 (New England, Pittsburgh and Atlanta).
This year, I project that ‘only’ 3 of the teams with losing records in 2011 will make the playoffs due to the low amount of teams with losing records. What I look for is #1, QB Play. Particularly the profile of being at the least a ‘decent, veteran QB.’ Veterans are very important because it’s too difficult to project when a good, up and coming, young QB will take the team to the playoffs. Matthew Stafford is a good example.
The other thing I look for is for the head coach, particularly if he’s taken *that* team to the playoffs before. Lastly, I look at the division they are in. Tougher the division, the tougher it will be to make the postseason.
Out of those teams with losing records, I like these 3 teams the best.
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
After those teams, I like the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Bucs (in that order). The last tier would probably be the Colts and Redskins because we don’t know how good Luck and RGIII will be in 2013. I think the Colts play in a weaker division, so that’s why I put them slightly ahead of the skins.
As far as the divisional winners go, I will once again project that 4 of the 8 divisional winners will return to the postseason. We’ve only had 5 divisional winners return to the postseason once since 1999, and that was the 2002 divisional winners.
So, outta these guys:
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans Saints
SF 49ers
First, I’ll take the G-Men. Why? Super Bowl winners tend to return to the postseason. I will also take Green Bay. Great, young QB that isn’t injury prone. Next, the Ravens as Flacco is a good but not great, young QB and I don’t see him getting injured. After that? I’ll go with New England right now because they don’t have to make a big adjustment in personnel like the Broncos do and we don’t know about Peyton’s neck. This could change. But, here they are so far:
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
Now I have 5 teams left to pick for the playoffs. These teams either:
A) Had a .500+ record and didn’t make the playoffs
B) Were a wildcard team.
So, I’ll start with the wildcard teams first.
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
Now….this is a little unorthodox because the AFC North sent 3 teams to the playoffs last year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincy). Also, history shows that being a wild card team tends to be a GOOD thing.
Why?
Because on average 3 of the 4 wildcard teams return to the playoffs the next season. Thus, the wildcard team can often get 2 good shots at the Super Bowl. I believe that the reason for this is that the wildcard teams get a little better draft position, they don’t have every team in their division gunning for them and they get a little better schedule since they don’t have to face other division winners.
That’s the real point of all of this…to understand that the NFL is a MACHINE that spits out parity each and every year. But, I digress..
Anyway, I’m going to pick 3 out of the 4 to return to the postseason. And my picks are:
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
I actually had a hard time with this one because I don’t quite like the Lions over the Beas and I’m not too sure on the Steelers vs. the Bengals. But, the league has a history of QB’s that have a great rookie year like Andy Dalton did, then a little lull with a 7-9 to 9-7 season where they miss the playoffs, then stardom after that.
So now we are up to the following teams making the playoffs:
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ll also put them in order of what I have so far by division.
AFC East
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
AFC South
Vacant
AFC West
Vacant
NFC East
NY Giants
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
So, I have the NFC filled out. And we have to get to the AFC South and AFC West divisions.
I believe both of those spots will be filled with teams with .500+ records. My picks are:
Tennessee
San Diego
Thus, my playoff team projections look like this:
AFC
New England
Buffalo
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
San Diego
NFC
NY Giants
Green Bay
Detroit
Atlanta
Carolina
Seattle
Here’s the top 5 teams that I did not list in the playoffs that I think have a good shot at it, in order:
1. Denver Broncos
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Chicago Bears
5. Cincinnati Bengals
3JACK