Football Outsiders 2012 NFL Projected Standings

[Richie3Jack]

I just received FootballOutsiders.com 2012 Pro Football Almanac. For those who don’t know, FootballOutsiders.com is very much like what I have tried to do with my Pro Golf Synopsis book (in fact, I’ve talked to founder Aaron Schatz on quite a few occasions) and is in line with the ‘Moneyball’, but for the NFL. Here’s their projected win totals for each team in the 2012 season (I’ll round up each number).

AFC EAST

New England 12-4
Buffalo 10-6
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9

This goes along with my preliminary projections with the Jets going 8-8, the Bills making the playoffs (Fab Four Rule) and the Patriots being the team that won the division last year, returning this year. That being said, I would be hard pressed to see the Pats win 12 games given the improvement in the Bills and the Jets. I have the Fins more at 5-11 or 6-10-ish


AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 5-11

My projections are similar, although I have the Ravens winning the division again. I’m a little less confident in the Steelers, which is a natural tendency for me since Roethlisberger is a bit injury prone. One of these days it will catch up to the Steelers and really knock them out of playoffs contention. Plus, their defense is getting older. It also doesn’t help that Cincinnati is now a formidable opponent with an up and coming QB in Andy Dalton.


AFC SOUTH

Houston 9-7
Tennessee 8-8
Jacksonville 6-10
Indianapolis 6-10

I have Tennessee taking the division. My statistical projections last year had Tennessee quite high, they just kept losing games for odd reasons in 2011. I think they are ready to break thru and surprise people. Schaub is injury prone and usually teams start to get a grasp of Wade Phillips’ defense in year 2, then he makes adjustments to get the ship righted in year 3.


AFC WEST

Denver 8-8
Kansas City 8-8
Oakland 7-9
San Diego 7-9

I actually have San Diego taking the division in a close on against the Broncos. Still have doubts about Peyton’s neck and the year off he took to recover. A lousy division to say the least.


NFC EAST

Philadelphia 9-7
NY Giants 8-8
Dallas 8-8
Washington 7-9

I had the G-Men barely winning the division again. Philly scares me more this year, although I am not convinced that Mike Vick is truly an elite QB or that he can stay healthy for an entire season. I actually have a bad feeling about my Cowboys this year. They have little in the way of interior O-Line and safety play and they haven’t convinced me that they will stop pissing away games like they have for the past 10 years.


NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5
Chicago 10-6
Detroit 8-8
Minnesota 6-10

Yup. People forget that the Bears were well on their way to making the playoffs and being a scary tough team in the postseason until Cutler was injured.


NFC SOUTH

Atlanta 10-6
New Orleans 9-7
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 7-9

Currently, I have Carolina making the playoffs. Granted, the Saints are a bit of a wildcard (no pun intended) given all that has happened to them. I would like to think as great as Brees is, they’ll still miss Payton’s schemes, gameplanning and playcalling. They will also have to adjust without Gregg Williams and the defensive starters that they lost And while I have a bit of a personal bias here, I believe Carolina’s O-Coordinator, Robb Chudzinski, is one of the brightest minds in football. Putting him together with Cam Newton and having Ron Rivera running the defense is a great combination.


NFC WEST

Seattle 7-9
San Francisco 7-9
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 5-11

FO.com has both Seattle and San Francisco projected at 7.2 wins. I have Seattle winning the division. San Francisco had a ridiculous turnover ratio last year and I highly doubt they’ll be able to match it. Plus, teams should start to figure out Harbaugh’s offense a bit and make them rely on Alex Smith to win games. If Matt Flynn works out reasonably well, I could see Seattle running away with the division.






3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

Thanks for the post.

The Niners D is ferocious. They scare me the most in the NFC. Vick cannot stay healthy. He's an average size human being playing against giants. I keep hearing how Romo will have a big year and on paper he does great. But, the Cowboys need their swagger back like they had with Emmitt/Irvin/Aikman (hall of famers help I guess). Confidence is a fine and unstable line.

P.S. You know that any true Eagles fan is delusional, revels in all failure by the Cowboys and believes this is our year for a SuperBowl. Once we don't win the SuperBowl we come up with hundreds of excuses (accept our own play) just like little children.

[Richie3Jack]

I think people forget that the Niners have only had 1 winning season in the past 8 years. That and they had a ridiculous turnover margin, which will almost be guaranteed to drop to a more normal level. And again, since 1999, only 47% of the teams that have won their division have returned to the playoffs the following season. So that means if you win the division, you are more likely to *miss* the playoffs the following season than to return to the playoffs. In fact, in the last 4 seasons, only 38% of the divisional winners have returned to the playoffs the following season.

What's interesting to me, is that I do my projections based off of the number of teams with losing records, examining those teams and which ones will make the playoffs along with examining the divisional winners and wildcard teams and determining which of those teams will make the playoffs. So while I utilize a very different methodology, my projections are very similar to the FO.com's projections.





3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

I just guess and use emotion! Typical Eagles fan! I don't want to know the facts.

I'll take the Niners for the NFC West. Always fun to discuss NFL football. Every team has a chance each year if they draft correctly. Some teams have better chances than others, but even the lowly Browns could put together a SuperBowl team in a year or two. The possibility for success is there for any team. The hard part is execution.

[tacks]

Richie great post on football almost as good as your golf information. I was wondering when do you work if you do? thanks Ed

[Richie3Jack]

I work smart, not hard.







3JACK

[woodbury]

I am a Raider fan, and I can't stand 49er fans(no offense to anyone in particular)... that said, I think the 49ers still have the best run defense in the NFL (at least top 3), and their secondary is decent... Even with their TO ratio coming back down to earth, they are still a top 10 defense, and the best unit (offense or defense) in the whole division. If Justin Smith and Carlos Rogers stay healthy, their defense should be top 5.

Their offense will still struggle at times, and I don't expect Manningham, the rookie, or Moss to change Alex Smith's stats by much... and Smith will have more INT's, and Gore is old and this is probably his last year as a starter. Special teams should still be good/solid. 10-6

As for the Raiders... I really question whether their defense can stop the run, if the corners are any good, or if Darren McFadden can play a full season. 8-8.