2012 Pro Golf Synopsis Update - 11.21.12

[Richie3Jack]

I will try to do something every week. I'm still planning to have this done and set to go before New Year's. Currently, I'm working on the section that takes the longest...individual player analysis. I can usually run thru about 10 of these a night. There are 191 players who qualified statistically in 2012. So that's roughly 3-weeks of work just on the player analysis alone.

Each player will have 1-page of their own analysis. Of course, part of that page is the table that shows their key metrics. The formating of 2012 PGS is entirely better than 2011 PGS. But I've been able to give a generally informative rundown of each player's game in:

1. Earnings and Scoring
2. Driving
3. Zone Play
4. Short Game and Putting
5. Miscellaneous stuff like strategy
6. Outlook for their future

Next week I plan on having a new GolfWRX column up and it will be a small anecdote from 2012 PGS.

In the meantime, I found another interesting tidbit.

When it comes to make % from a certain distance and Putts Gained, the distance that has the strongest correlation to Putts Gained is putts made from 3-4 feet. And it's actually a fairly decent mathematical correlation (depending on the year, in the +0.6 to +0.7 range).

Of course, that's not nearly a 1-to-1 relationship. But seeing the correlation year after year on Tour, it's safe to say that there's a relationship there.

My guess is that it's a couple of things.

For starters, ShotLink does not measure putts made from a certain distance at that particular distance.

What I mean is that the metric 'Putting from 3 feet' is actually all putts made INSIDE 3 feet. The issue with that is Tour players are going to have a lot of putts that are tap-ins.

'Putting from 4 feet' is actually measured on putts greater than 3 feet long, but less than 4 feet long.

The same type of process with putts from 5 feet (greater than 4 feet, less than 5 feet).

So those putts from 3-4 feet are long enough where not everybody is going to make most of those putts. The average on Tour from 3-4 feet is about 91%. But, there's also a large enough variance as well. This year Furyk made the highest percentage of 3-4' putts at 99%. Scott Dunlap was last at 79%.

But once you get outside 3-4 feet, there is no substantial correlation to Putts Gained. Obviously, if you putt well from the other distances in total, your Putts Gained will be improved.

IMO, I think it goes to show that 3-4 foot putts give a good indication of a golfer's overall putting skills. From aim to speed/touch to centerness of contact, etc.






3JACK

[kevcarter]

I would be very interested in seeing what your statistics show happened to Brian Gay this year. I'm glad he finished strong this fall and kept his card.

My understanding is he's started hitting up on the driver, and his teachers said he immediately started hitting 30 yards further last spring. It looks like his short game stats are still solid. With a great short game, and an added 30 yards, I would have hoped for a better year. Hopefully he gets it going for 2013!

Thanks Richie,
Kevin

[Richie3Jack]

Gay did not strike it well from 150-225 yards or off the tee. But going into 2012 he was getting to the point where his clubhead speed was too low and his driving distance was too short.

So he accomplished that. Adding about 8 yards off the tee and about 2 mph of clubhead speed, which are big improvements on Tour. He has some accuracy issues off the tee. I think all things considered, he badly need to improve his distance and clubhead speed and in the end made it thru 2012 keeping his card. He struck it much better in the Fall Series, so I think there's a decent shot of him having a very good 2013. But, he has to get his fairway percentage up to 67.5% plus and his Average distance to the edge of the fairway to around 21 feet...then drastically improve in the Danger Zone.

If he can do that, I see now reason why he can't return to the winner's circle.






3JACK

[kevcarter]

Thanks Man. Fingers crossed!!!

Kevin

[iamzodia]

Sure looked to me like early on Brian was S and T swinging and by years end had either got it, or worked back towards the swing shape he had with Lynn Blake. He used to be a fairway finding machine. I know he was working some with Grant Waite. Don't know if he still is. I love watching the videos of Brian working with Yoda- so balanced, so on plane. Of course, being a great putter helps!

[Richie3Jack]

Gay works with Grant Waite on his swing. It's been conveyed to me that they have really worked on gaining some power because he was getting to the point of being too short off the tee.

IMO, I think it was a fairly successful season. He gained the power and started to drive it really well in the fall. Obviously, we'll have to see how it translates to next year. But, a lot of guys look for more power and never get it. So they accomplished 1/2 their goal and came away with keeping his Tour card.






3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Just an update, and I will post this on the Blogspot Site.

I am working diligently on PGS every day. Currently, I'm trying to finish up on the player-by-player Tour analysis. That should take me thru weekend to finish. Each player on Tour will have their own page. 191 players qualified statistically. Soooooo...that's 191 pages in just Tour player analysis alone. And you would be surprised what I can find to write about Tom Pernice's game, much less Rory McIlroy's.

After that, I will put the finishing touches on the rest of the book. Most of that has been written for a while now. Then some editing and some revision. The plan is to get the e-book finished by December 31st. Hopefully, no later than January 6th as that is when the Hyundai Tournament of Champions starts.

I am pretty sure I will put it up on an e-junkie.com Web site for sale. That's what the SITD crew uses for their work. Until then, I will be doing less blog posts as I work to finish up 2012 PGS.









3JACK

[MattF]

Thank you Richie

[Richie3Jack]

Another update....

I just finished the big part of PGS, the player-by-player analysis. I will try to review and edit it tonight. Then, I will work on finishing up the other parts with the introduction, overview of different parts of the game with statistics, the essays and the rankings of the metrics. Review and edit that, put it all together in a .pdf format and get set up with e-junkie.

I'm thinking a good date to shoot for would be January 2nd. It may run a little longer than that.







3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Hopefully this will be the final update.

2012 Pro Golf Synopis is just about completed. I've edited everything completed so far. There are a few minor changes I need to make and I am fooling around with 1 more essay. I am likely to add one more part of the top-10 players I think I will progress the most in 2013 versus the top-10 biggest falling players in 2013. That will take a little time, but nothing too much.

I have harped on it before, but this PGS is much better formatted and with better illustrations.

We have a brief introduction.

Then a brief overview of certain key metrics I use.

Then we go into 'Statistical Truths' the disspell a lot of myths.

The flaws of traditional metrics.

Using a Metrics Based Strategy. This applies to all golfers. It also goes over the key metrics in golf, from driving to putting to Short Game to the Zones and how it applies to certain golfers depending upon their handicap.

I also discuss some of the the things I observed from watching a couple of Tour events (Bay Hill and Transitions) along with what I discovered working with the PGA Tour players and our experiences. And how those experiences can help the common amateur with their strategy.

Then there is the 191 players analysis. Each Tour player gets their own page. There's a box that goes over their key metrics along with some editorial on what their season was like.

Then there are the statistically based essays, much like the work I do on GolfWRX.

Lastly, I have the Statistical Rankings in the key metrics you cannot find on PGATour.com Web site. This is nicely formatted in a table for each metric like Strength of Fields Played In, Purse Size per Event, Driving Effectiveness, Short Game Play, etc. That is finished out by a review of my weekly picks for each tournament, their Vegas odds of winning the tournament and how they finished.

In 28 tournaments, I picked 7 winners, 6 2nd-place finishers and 6 3rd place finishers.

The way e-junkie works is that it sets up a shopping cart to the web site. So, it will go thru the 3jack.blogspot.com Web site. Then e-junkie essentially provides the server for it so they process the sale.

Again, it will cost only $10 for roughly 285 pages of information. You can pay for it via PayPal, Google Checkout or credit card.









3JACK