Post by Richie3Jack on Nov 29, 2012 10:22:48 GMT -5
Here's my updated projected wins. Commentary on each division below.
1. New England Patriots: 13.42
2. Houston Texans: 12.20
3. Denver Broncos: 11.83
4. New York Giants: 11.49
5. Chicago Bears: 11.06
6. Atlanta Falcons: 11.00
7. Baltimore Ravens: 10.91
8. San Francisco 49ers: 10.64
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10.62
10. Seattle Seahawks: 10.44
11. Green Bay Packers: 9.78
12. Cincinnati Bengals: 8.85
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.82
14. Cleveland Browns: 8.65
15. Washington Redskins: 8.48
16. New Orleans Saints: 7.97
17. Miami Dolphins: 7.43
18. San Diego Chargers: 7.23
19. Detroit Lions: 6.96
20. Arizona Cardinals: 6.75
21. St. Louis Rams: 6.60
22. Dallas Cowboys: 6.47
23. Buffalo Bills: 6.46
24. Minnesota Vikings: 6.45
25. Tennessee Titans: 6.02
26. New York Jets: 6.00
27. Carolina Panthers: 5.99
28. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.43
29. Oakland Raiders: 4.73
30. Indianapolis Colts: 4.62
31. Philadelphia Eagles: 3.21
32. Kansas City Chiefs: 1.41
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: 13.42
Miami Dolphins: 7.43
Buffalo Bills: 6.46
New York Jets: 6.00
Brady is having a MVP type of season that is not getting much attention. And the Pats rank well in pretty much most of the metrics. However, their pass defense is still soft, ranking 25th in QB rating allowed and with only 23 sacks (given their offense, not that impressive).
A big part of the Patriots success each year is they play in a lousy AFC East. Once again, no other AFC East team can sniff having a top-10 QB in the league. In fact, I would rank Ryan Fitzgerald no better than 10th in the entire AFC.
The Dolphins rank pretty strong on defense, ranking 9th in my defensive metric and 8th in points allowed, but have no offense to speak of. The Bills are mediocre all the way around. The Jets have seen a dropoff in their defense this year, which has to be a little disconcerting. Particularly if they plan on moving on from Sanchez as they will have to focus on finding a new QB and getting help on defense.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: 10.91
Cincinnati Bengals: 8.85
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.82
Cleveland Browns: 8.65
A good playing division. My metrics don’t account for strength of schedule, so there is an indication that the AFC North is playing a softer schedule this year since everybody is doing well projected wins wise. The Browns have the best defense of the bunch, with the Steelers the worst. But oddly enough, the Steelers rank 6th in QB rating allowed. And the Browns have no passing game, but are +8 in turnover margin. I think the Browns really screwed the pooch at not looking at a capable, veteran QB in the offseason. It could have propelled them to the playoffs. While I know Brandon Weeden just turned 29 years old, they could have waited a year and gotten him more experience. The Bengals will be fighting for a playoff spot. Their defense struggled badly early on, but is starting to come around.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: 12.20
Tennessee Titans: 6.02
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.43
Indianapolis Colts: 4.62
I had the Texans missing the playoffs and the Titans winning the division. It appears the Texas will lock up the division with ease and the Colts will get the wildcard spot. The Texans defense is starting to slip now. Ranking 10th in my defense metric and 11th in QB Rating Allowed. However, they are still doing well. They protect the QB, they don’t give up a lot of points and they can still get to the QB, on pace for 44 sacks on the season. Out of all of the teams in the AFC, the Texas look the best from a metrics standpoint to go to and win the Super Bowl. The Colts are that one team that does it thru smoke and mirrors and does much better than their metrics indicate. They are poor in every category except for protecting Andrew Luck, where they still rank 16th. They are also -14 in turnover margin.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: 11.83
San Diego Chargers: 7.23
Oakland Raiders: 4.73
Kansas City Chiefs: 1.41
Statistically, I generally like the Broncos. However, their defense struggles to generate turnovers as the team is -3 in turnover margin for the year. Which is odd since they lead the league in sacks. If they can’t change the turnover margin around, then they are simply a team that can’t generate turnovers and I don’t like their chances in the postseason. The Chargers actually have pretty decent metrics, but have struggled to protect Phillip Rivers this season, ranking 28th in Adj. Sacks Allowed. The Raiders and Chiefs are so bad that they are not worth typing up something about them.
NFC EAST
New York Giants: 11.49
Washington Redskins: 8.48
Dallas Cowboys: 6.47
Philadelphia Eagles: 3.21
The G-Men have a weird underrating of how good they are. If there’s one thing that has struggled it’s their passing offense, ranking 18th in QB rating. But once again, they win the battle of ‘sacking your QB vs. keeping Eli upright.’ They are on pace for 44 sacks allowed while they rank 2nd in Adj. Sacks Allowed. The Redskins have done some things well this year. Their offense is pretty good, not exactly great. Currently they are 11th in my offensive metric. They are also 5th in QB rating and have a +12 turnover margin. But, they still struggle to get to the QB and are 25th in points allowed. Furthermore, they are 27th in Adj. Sacks Allowed. RGIII has been hit quite a bit and took some brutal shots in the Dallas game. The problem is that the worse the Adj. Sacks Allowed, the more likely the QB will get injured. The Cowboys have been killed by poor O-Line play, inability to force turnovers and injuries.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: 11.06
Green Bay Packers: 9.78
Detroit Lions: 6.96
Minnesota Vikings: 6.45
The Bears were a team I had going to the playoffs and appear well on their way. That’s if Cutler can stay healthy. The Bears are last in Adj. Sacks Allowed and 25th in QB Rating. So their offense is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. But, they are 1st in QB Rating Allowed, 1st in special teams play and 2nd in defense. And as per usual, they force turnovers. Generally, I like their chances at going to the Super Bowl, but their inability to protect the QB and their anemic passing offense would bother me.
If there’s one thing Mike McCarthey is brilliant at is ‘QB Rating Differential.’ The Packers have routinely been in the top-3 in QBRD since McCarthey has become coach. They simply pass it well and defend the pass well. Did it with Favre and now do it with Rodgers. This year they rank 1st in QBRD. But, their run defense as well as their ability to protect the ball and protect Rodgers has become a problem. They rank 29th in Adj. Sacks Allowed. If there is another thing I don’t like, it’s that they are 14th in points allowed.
The Vikings are the typical strong running team that wins the running battle. They don’t pass well nor do they defend the pass. But, if you run enough, you can keep your record reasonably close to .500.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: 11.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10.62
New Orleans Saints: 7.97
Carolina Panthers: 5.99
The Falcons are a very steady ball club. They are right on the border of the key metrics for typical Super Bowl winners, 6th in points allowed, projected 38 sacks, +3 turnover margin. May be the odds on favorite if they end up with HFA in the playoffs. I predicted the Panthers to make the playoffs. Won’t do that again with a 2nd year QB. I was considering the Bucs, but they didn’t quite ‘fit’ into the puzzle and I was too uncertain about Schiano and Josh Freeman. Now I think that Freeman can play in this league and Schiano is a tremendous coach. Wish the Cowboys had him. The Bucs are 3rd in my offensive metric, 9th in defensive (watch Gerald McCoy, he’s a terror). Their pass defense is a little weak (21st in QB Rating Allowed). The main problem they have is that they don’t get to the QB (projected 26 sacks) and are 18th in points allowed. I don’t think they will make the playoffs as they don’t have enough defensive firepower.
The Saints main problem is their pass defense stinks.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers: 10.64
Seattle Seahawks: 10.44
Arizona Cardinals: 6.75
St. Louis Rams: 6.60
The Niners are all defense, but they pass the ball effectively as they rank 4th in QB Rating. They do have some issues protecting the QB, ranked 31st in Adj. Sacks Allowed. But, their key metrics (points allowed, turnover margin, sacks, QBRD) all show a team that can go to the Super Bowl with either QB.
I think Russell Wilson is a bit overrated. He doesn’t turn the ball over and leads the team well, but he doesn’t exactly make plays in the passing game. He does what they need him to do given he’s a rookie and they have a very good defense, but I question whether or not they can expand upon that after 2012. Crazy enough, they also have all of the key metrics to have a good shot at going at the Super Bowl. I just question how well they can play on the road.
It’s too bad the Cards can’t find a QB because their defense is really good. 2nd in QB rating allowed and they really get after the QB. Part of the problem is that they cannot protect the QB.
PROJECTED AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS
New England*
Baltimore*
Houston*
Denver*
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
PROJECTED NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS
NY Giants*
Chicago*
Atlanta*
San Francisco*
Seattle
Green Bay
Projected AFC Championship Game: Houston vs. New England
Projected NFC Championship Game: Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Projected Super Bowl: Atlanta vs. Houston
Projected Winner: Houston
3JACK
1. New England Patriots: 13.42
2. Houston Texans: 12.20
3. Denver Broncos: 11.83
4. New York Giants: 11.49
5. Chicago Bears: 11.06
6. Atlanta Falcons: 11.00
7. Baltimore Ravens: 10.91
8. San Francisco 49ers: 10.64
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10.62
10. Seattle Seahawks: 10.44
11. Green Bay Packers: 9.78
12. Cincinnati Bengals: 8.85
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.82
14. Cleveland Browns: 8.65
15. Washington Redskins: 8.48
16. New Orleans Saints: 7.97
17. Miami Dolphins: 7.43
18. San Diego Chargers: 7.23
19. Detroit Lions: 6.96
20. Arizona Cardinals: 6.75
21. St. Louis Rams: 6.60
22. Dallas Cowboys: 6.47
23. Buffalo Bills: 6.46
24. Minnesota Vikings: 6.45
25. Tennessee Titans: 6.02
26. New York Jets: 6.00
27. Carolina Panthers: 5.99
28. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.43
29. Oakland Raiders: 4.73
30. Indianapolis Colts: 4.62
31. Philadelphia Eagles: 3.21
32. Kansas City Chiefs: 1.41
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: 13.42
Miami Dolphins: 7.43
Buffalo Bills: 6.46
New York Jets: 6.00
Brady is having a MVP type of season that is not getting much attention. And the Pats rank well in pretty much most of the metrics. However, their pass defense is still soft, ranking 25th in QB rating allowed and with only 23 sacks (given their offense, not that impressive).
A big part of the Patriots success each year is they play in a lousy AFC East. Once again, no other AFC East team can sniff having a top-10 QB in the league. In fact, I would rank Ryan Fitzgerald no better than 10th in the entire AFC.
The Dolphins rank pretty strong on defense, ranking 9th in my defensive metric and 8th in points allowed, but have no offense to speak of. The Bills are mediocre all the way around. The Jets have seen a dropoff in their defense this year, which has to be a little disconcerting. Particularly if they plan on moving on from Sanchez as they will have to focus on finding a new QB and getting help on defense.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: 10.91
Cincinnati Bengals: 8.85
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.82
Cleveland Browns: 8.65
A good playing division. My metrics don’t account for strength of schedule, so there is an indication that the AFC North is playing a softer schedule this year since everybody is doing well projected wins wise. The Browns have the best defense of the bunch, with the Steelers the worst. But oddly enough, the Steelers rank 6th in QB rating allowed. And the Browns have no passing game, but are +8 in turnover margin. I think the Browns really screwed the pooch at not looking at a capable, veteran QB in the offseason. It could have propelled them to the playoffs. While I know Brandon Weeden just turned 29 years old, they could have waited a year and gotten him more experience. The Bengals will be fighting for a playoff spot. Their defense struggled badly early on, but is starting to come around.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: 12.20
Tennessee Titans: 6.02
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5.43
Indianapolis Colts: 4.62
I had the Texans missing the playoffs and the Titans winning the division. It appears the Texas will lock up the division with ease and the Colts will get the wildcard spot. The Texans defense is starting to slip now. Ranking 10th in my defense metric and 11th in QB Rating Allowed. However, they are still doing well. They protect the QB, they don’t give up a lot of points and they can still get to the QB, on pace for 44 sacks on the season. Out of all of the teams in the AFC, the Texas look the best from a metrics standpoint to go to and win the Super Bowl. The Colts are that one team that does it thru smoke and mirrors and does much better than their metrics indicate. They are poor in every category except for protecting Andrew Luck, where they still rank 16th. They are also -14 in turnover margin.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: 11.83
San Diego Chargers: 7.23
Oakland Raiders: 4.73
Kansas City Chiefs: 1.41
Statistically, I generally like the Broncos. However, their defense struggles to generate turnovers as the team is -3 in turnover margin for the year. Which is odd since they lead the league in sacks. If they can’t change the turnover margin around, then they are simply a team that can’t generate turnovers and I don’t like their chances in the postseason. The Chargers actually have pretty decent metrics, but have struggled to protect Phillip Rivers this season, ranking 28th in Adj. Sacks Allowed. The Raiders and Chiefs are so bad that they are not worth typing up something about them.
NFC EAST
New York Giants: 11.49
Washington Redskins: 8.48
Dallas Cowboys: 6.47
Philadelphia Eagles: 3.21
The G-Men have a weird underrating of how good they are. If there’s one thing that has struggled it’s their passing offense, ranking 18th in QB rating. But once again, they win the battle of ‘sacking your QB vs. keeping Eli upright.’ They are on pace for 44 sacks allowed while they rank 2nd in Adj. Sacks Allowed. The Redskins have done some things well this year. Their offense is pretty good, not exactly great. Currently they are 11th in my offensive metric. They are also 5th in QB rating and have a +12 turnover margin. But, they still struggle to get to the QB and are 25th in points allowed. Furthermore, they are 27th in Adj. Sacks Allowed. RGIII has been hit quite a bit and took some brutal shots in the Dallas game. The problem is that the worse the Adj. Sacks Allowed, the more likely the QB will get injured. The Cowboys have been killed by poor O-Line play, inability to force turnovers and injuries.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: 11.06
Green Bay Packers: 9.78
Detroit Lions: 6.96
Minnesota Vikings: 6.45
The Bears were a team I had going to the playoffs and appear well on their way. That’s if Cutler can stay healthy. The Bears are last in Adj. Sacks Allowed and 25th in QB Rating. So their offense is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. But, they are 1st in QB Rating Allowed, 1st in special teams play and 2nd in defense. And as per usual, they force turnovers. Generally, I like their chances at going to the Super Bowl, but their inability to protect the QB and their anemic passing offense would bother me.
If there’s one thing Mike McCarthey is brilliant at is ‘QB Rating Differential.’ The Packers have routinely been in the top-3 in QBRD since McCarthey has become coach. They simply pass it well and defend the pass well. Did it with Favre and now do it with Rodgers. This year they rank 1st in QBRD. But, their run defense as well as their ability to protect the ball and protect Rodgers has become a problem. They rank 29th in Adj. Sacks Allowed. If there is another thing I don’t like, it’s that they are 14th in points allowed.
The Vikings are the typical strong running team that wins the running battle. They don’t pass well nor do they defend the pass. But, if you run enough, you can keep your record reasonably close to .500.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: 11.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10.62
New Orleans Saints: 7.97
Carolina Panthers: 5.99
The Falcons are a very steady ball club. They are right on the border of the key metrics for typical Super Bowl winners, 6th in points allowed, projected 38 sacks, +3 turnover margin. May be the odds on favorite if they end up with HFA in the playoffs. I predicted the Panthers to make the playoffs. Won’t do that again with a 2nd year QB. I was considering the Bucs, but they didn’t quite ‘fit’ into the puzzle and I was too uncertain about Schiano and Josh Freeman. Now I think that Freeman can play in this league and Schiano is a tremendous coach. Wish the Cowboys had him. The Bucs are 3rd in my offensive metric, 9th in defensive (watch Gerald McCoy, he’s a terror). Their pass defense is a little weak (21st in QB Rating Allowed). The main problem they have is that they don’t get to the QB (projected 26 sacks) and are 18th in points allowed. I don’t think they will make the playoffs as they don’t have enough defensive firepower.
The Saints main problem is their pass defense stinks.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers: 10.64
Seattle Seahawks: 10.44
Arizona Cardinals: 6.75
St. Louis Rams: 6.60
The Niners are all defense, but they pass the ball effectively as they rank 4th in QB Rating. They do have some issues protecting the QB, ranked 31st in Adj. Sacks Allowed. But, their key metrics (points allowed, turnover margin, sacks, QBRD) all show a team that can go to the Super Bowl with either QB.
I think Russell Wilson is a bit overrated. He doesn’t turn the ball over and leads the team well, but he doesn’t exactly make plays in the passing game. He does what they need him to do given he’s a rookie and they have a very good defense, but I question whether or not they can expand upon that after 2012. Crazy enough, they also have all of the key metrics to have a good shot at going at the Super Bowl. I just question how well they can play on the road.
It’s too bad the Cards can’t find a QB because their defense is really good. 2nd in QB rating allowed and they really get after the QB. Part of the problem is that they cannot protect the QB.
PROJECTED AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS
New England*
Baltimore*
Houston*
Denver*
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
PROJECTED NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS
NY Giants*
Chicago*
Atlanta*
San Francisco*
Seattle
Green Bay
Projected AFC Championship Game: Houston vs. New England
Projected NFC Championship Game: Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Projected Super Bowl: Atlanta vs. Houston
Projected Winner: Houston
3JACK