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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 13, 2012 11:12:20 GMT -5
Getting into the last 3 weeks of the season:
1. New England Patriots: 13.65 2. Houston Texans: 12.25 3. New York Giants: 12.15 4. Denver Broncos: 11.96 5. Seattle Seahawks: 11.67 6. Atlanta Falcons: 11.41 7. Chicago Bears: 10.42 8. Baltimore Ravens: 10.32 9. San Francisco 49ers: 10.32 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10.19 11. Green Bay Packers: 9.83 12. Cleveland Browns: 9.18 13. Cincinnati Bengals: 8.50 14. Washington Redskins: 8.48 15. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.37 16. San Diego Chargers: 7.45 17. St. Louis Rams: 7.29 18. Detroit Lions: 7.23 19. Miami Dolphins: 6.93 20. New Orleans Saints: 6.91 21. Buffalo Bills: 6.90 22. Dallas Cowboys: 6.87 23. New York Jets: 6.63 24. Minnesota Vikings: 6.51 25. Carolina Panthers: 6.40 26. Arizona Cardinals: 5.47 27. Oakland Raiders: 5.24 28. Tennessee Titans: 5.08 29. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4.79 30. Indianapolis Colts: 4.70 31. Philadelphia Eagles: 3.08 32. Kansas City Chiefs: 1.36
With that, and taking the actual games won, here are the teams' projected records:
AFC EAST
New England 13-3 NY Jets 7-9 Miami 7-9 Buffalo 7-9
AFC NORTH
Baltimore 10-6 Cincinnati 9-7 Pittsburgh 8-8 Cleveland 8-8
AFC SOUTH
Houston 12-4 Indianapolis 9-7 Tennessee 5-11 Jacksonville 5-11
AFC WEST
Denver 12-4 San Diego 7-9 Oakland 5-11 Kansas City 2-14
NFC EAST
NY Giants 11-5 Washington 8-8 Dallas 7-9 Philadelphia 4-12
NFC NORTH
Chicago 10-6 Green Bay 10-6 Detroit 7-9 Minnesota 7-9
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta 11-5 Tampa Bay 9-7 New Orleans 7-9 Carolina 6-10
NFC WEST
Seattle 11-5 San Francisco 10-5-1 St. Louis 7-8-1 Arizona 5-11
*We see 2 divisions where the projections show the division changing hands from where it is now, NFC North and NFC West. While my projections do not include strength of schedule, the numbers are fairly accurate without it.
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 20, 2012 16:31:34 GMT -5
I cannot do the projected wins given that the Football Outsiders Web site is down. I use their Adjusted Sacks Allowed Rate to help with the algorithm for projecting victories.
Before the season starts, I make my projections in what I call ‘The Puzzle of Parity.’ Essentially, the NFL is a system of parity and once you see the trends of the system, you can use that alone to better project the playoff teams and division winners.
Part of this has to do with the number of losing teams the year prior. Each year, 25-30% of the teams with losing records will make the playoffs the following year. Also, since 1999 only 47% of the teams who have won their division returned to the playoffs the following year. Thus:
1) You’re going to have bad teams revive themselves the following year. 2) Since ’99, you are more likely to MISS the playoffs if you win the division the previous year.
What’s incredible is the standard deviation for those metrics are very small. From 2000-2006, the NFL averaged 4 teams each year who made the playoffs despite a losing record. They had 1 year where only 3 teams with losing records made the playoffs the following year and another year 5 teams with losing records made the playoffs the following year. But, the other years….4 teams would make the playoffs despite a sub-.500 record the year before.
The divisional winners are even more incredible. Since ’99 there has only been ONE year where more than 4 divisional winners returned to the playoffs the following year (2003 divisional winners – 5 teams returned). In fact, in recent years it’s been worse as each of the last four years 3 out of the 8 divisional winners returned to the postseason.
Thus, ‘The Puzzle of Parity.’ You have to find what teams fit the profile of a team with a losing record that will make the playoffs along with the divisional winners that will make the playoffs.
We had only 12 teams with a losing record in 2011. Thus, I predicted 3 of those teams would make the playoffs (Bills, Seahawks and Panthers). I also predicted that 4 of the divisional winners would return to the playoffs (New England, Denver, NY Giants and Green Bay).
Well, 2012 has been wacky. 6 of the division winners in 2011 have already clinched a playoff berth. And there’s a chance that 7 may return if the Giants pull it out.
I appear to be correct that 3 of the 12 teams with losing records in 2011 will make the playoffs. Unfortunately, I only got 1 of them correct (Seahawks).
In the end, I think the playoff teams will look like this:
AFC
1. Houston 2. Denver 3. New England 4. Baltimore 5. Indianapolis 6. Cincinnati
NFC
1. Atlanta 2. San Francisco 3. Green Bay 4. Washington 5. Seattle 6. NY Giants So yes, I think 7 of the 8 division winners will return. The G-Men got embarrassed at Atlanta. But, that is often a good thing for pro teams in any sport as they tend to show up the next week due to the embarrassment. The Bears are falling off a cliff, the Cowboys can’t stay healthy and I’m not buying into the Vikings.
Why so many division winners returning?
First, the historical trends show that when there are LESS teams with losing records, it tends to favor MORE divisional winners returning. 12 losing teams is a pretty low amount. Currently we have 11 teams that are guaranteed to have a losing record. And there’s another 5 teams that are no better than 6-7-1 or 6-8 (Rams, Bucs, Saints, Dolphins and Jets). And the Steelers are 7-7.
But the other reason I think is that the last 4 years of having only 3 out 8 division winners was such an anomaly that it probably ‘carried over’ into 2012.
Anyway, here are the teams who have the numbers to win the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Denver Houston Green Bay Seattle San Francisco
The other teams have some issues.
The Patriots still have struggles on defense. They still cannot get to the QB enough and struggle to hold opponents from scoring. They also have that classic look of a team that wins in large part due to a big turnover margin, but then fails in the playoffs when they go on the road.
The Falcons have issues getting to the QB. This is not as killer as it once was about 10 years ago, but it tends to creep up and become a problem. It’s negated a bit by them likely having HFA in the playoffs.
Baltimore has trouble preventing opponents scoring. Redskins are a team with getting to the passer and not allowing points. Plus, rookie QB’s rarely make it to the Super Bowl. IIRC the last was David Woodley.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 20, 2012 16:41:36 GMT -5
Eagles aren't out of it yet! SB this year despite the haters! (Feels good to be irrational).
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 20, 2012 16:55:06 GMT -5
Sounds like they are going to pull a trade to send Vick to NYJ.
Andy Reid has some powerful kool-aid.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 21, 2012 9:21:07 GMT -5
Dez has stepped up this year. The Cowboys have hope. I don't. If you get a nice 4-5th round running back, healthy offensive line and a good defensive end next year I could see the Cowboys making a decent playoff run. I think the gold standard in the NFC right now is the 49ers followed by (I'm not kidding) Seattle. I'm not sold on the Falcons just yet. Seattle is playing great team football right now. Pete Carroll is a sell out coach like the rest of the bums that screw schools and then leave (my personal opinion - ex. Petrino, Tubberville, etc.), but he's working his magic in Seattle.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 21, 2012 10:03:51 GMT -5
The Cowboys need to get some safeties. It is something that they have ignored since they drafted Roy Williams. To me, Williams was a great impact player for his first four years, but the game changed dramatically with offenses using pass receiving TE's that Roy could not cover anymore. He also lost his killer instinct. I wonder if they feel like it was a bad idea to draft him. I don't, they just need to be more aware of what's going on.
But, you can't get beat on big passing plays in the NFL and you have to make INT's. The Cowboys are starting to make INT's now, but with McCray at safety he's just a disaster waiting to happen. In fact, he's so bad that the Cowboys have kept rookie 4th round pick Matt Johnson, from Eastern Washington, on the team despite barely practicing because he's been sidelined with a hamstring injury the entire year. McCray is so bad that they are hoping Johnson will be healthy at some point to play.
The O-Line is a bit difficult. They need to get rid of Doug Free. If Phil Costa is a legit center, that would solve a lot of problems. It must be karma because they have had some horrible times finding O-linemen since the 90's.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 21, 2012 10:53:44 GMT -5
The Boys have been decimated on the O-line and on D with injuries so I give their coaching staff some slack. The Eagles have been killed as well, but they don't get any slack. You have hope and seem to be going in the right direction. Fire your GM, but keep Jerry Jones as the owner!
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 24, 2012 8:52:37 GMT -5
Rich -
Dez is now an elite receiver and can take over games. I love how violently he catches the ball. Romo is better as well. A healthy O line and the Boys should win the NFC East next year.
How about the Seahawks? They are mauling teams. Reminds me of the older Ravens a little but.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 24, 2012 16:06:32 GMT -5
Dallas needs massive improvement at safety. You can't win if you can't defend the pass. The corners are solid, but the safeties can't play zone coverage and can't tackle. In fact, I think their corners tackle better than their safeties. You can't have a 15 yard pass go for 30 yards because guys are missing tackles.
We need an O-Line as well. Mainly because we don't have any run blocking.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Dec 24, 2012 16:55:47 GMT -5
You have hope! I think Dallas will win the NFC East next year.
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