A Look Back at 3Jack's 2012 NFL Predictions

[Richie3Jack]

Here’s a look back at my 2012 preseason predictions.

AFC EAST
New England (11-5)
Buffalo (10-6)
NY Jets (8-8)
Miami (5-11)

The idea behind Buffalo was that they would be one of the 3 teams to make the playoffs despite a losing record the year before. Why? Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent veteran QB and they made a lot of changes to the porous defense. Also, Chan Gailey’s teams tend to play to their level of competition, so I thought that they could sneak a 9-7 or 10-6 season. Of course, they let me down. The Patriots were a lock to retain the division and they did. The Jets just couldn’t get past the mess on offense and Revis being injured. The Fins surprised me as Tannehill was a lot better than most people anticipated.

2013 Outlook: More of the same. 2nd year QB’s struggle in this league and I see Tannehill as a Matt Stafford type. Very talented. Probably good enough to win a Super Bowl, but needs too much help to be an elite QB. The Bills probably won’t do much. The Jets still have to figure out the Sanchez situation.



AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh (10-6)
Baltimore (9-7)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Cleveland (3-13)

I was more off than I would like. While the Browns did finish last, they were a much better team than given credit for. They just don’t have a QB. I knocked the Ravens out of making the playoffs because the numbers didn’t fit. Looking at the numbers, I don’t see how anybody could reasonably project 6 of the division winners in 2011 to return to the playoffs like they did this year. I feared that Dalton being a 2nd year QB would struggle. He did, but the Bengals have a good group of players around him.

2013 Outlook: The AFC seems very stable right now, but with 9 AFC teams with losing records it should change the landscape and my guess is that the Ravens would be the division winner to not make the playoffs. This looks pretty good for Cincinnati who have made the wildcard the past two years and Dalton will be in his 3rd season at QB. Then there’s Pittsburgh where they have traditionally come back strong after a letdown. I don’t think the Steelers have that Super Bowl run in them until they get some younger, productive players on defense.


AFC SOUTH

Tennessee (11-5)
Houston (8-8)
Indianapolis (6-10)
Jacksonville (4-12)

Not sure what happened to Tennessee. They almost made the playoffs in 2011 and they had good key metrics. Then they went belly up. Houston surprised me, although they slid pretty badly in the last 6 games of the season. Indianapolis was an anomaly. Their numbers stink, but they made the playoffs. Happens to 1-2 teams a year. Jacksonville was every bit pathetic as I thought they would be. At least they fired the right guy.


2013 Outlook: Again, my projections only have 3 of the 8 division winners returning to the playoffs in 2013. So, that doesn’t look good for Houston who did slide in December. I also don’t like Indy’s chances. Their numbers were too bad and Luck will be in his 2nd year. But, it’s hard to argue for Tennessee and Jacksonville. So, maybe Houston stays on top. We’ll have to see what Tennessee and the other AFC teams outside of the AFC South do.


AFC WEST

Denver (10-6)
San Diego (9-7)
Oakland (7-9)
Kansas City (6-10)

My only issue with Denver was if between Peyton getting healthy and the offense adjusting to his style of play if that would hold them back. It did a little at first, then they just flat out dominated. As great as Brady is, it goes to show why Peyton is better. He doesn’t play for the Colts for one year and they go 2-14. He goes to Denver and immediately turns them into a high power offense.

San Diego appeared at one point they could get over 8-8, but they fizzled instead of coming on strong like they did early on under Norv. Oakland was pathetic. The Chiefs were really bad. I remember a lot of people liking the Chiefs before the season, but I never saw it.

2013 Outlook: The only team I like to usurp the Broncos is the Chargers since they have Phillip Rivers. It depends on who the new coach will be. Still, the Broncos are going to be tough to knock out of the playoffs unless Peyton gets injured.



NFC EAST

NY Giants (10-6)
Philadelphia (9-7)
Dallas (8-8)
Washington (7-9)

Super Bowl winners almost always return to the playoffs. The only caveat is multiple winners within a short time. Usually after the 2nd Super Bowl their odds of making the playoffs go down the following year. I probably should have recognized that although with only 12 teams with losing records in 2011, that favored the 2011 Division Winners. The G-Men almost made it anyway. I think they are in a similar mode to the Steelers from a few years ago. 2-time winners in a short span that are still a very good organization and going to put together a few more very good squads before they taper off and have to rebuild.

I thought the Eagles with Vick would do well enough to go at least .500+. Man, did those Eagles quit on Andy Reid. I think the fact is that the old Eagles teams were really Jim Johnson’s team. Combine that with a one-time weak coaching conference (Campo, Spurrier and Fassel) Reid was not nearly as good. Then once Johnson passed away, he was a disaster waiting to happen.

The Cowboys played exactly like I thought. Less heart-breaking losses being replaced by not appearing to have enough talent type of losses. I just didn’t expect it to be that way with all of the injuries. I’ve been critical of Romo, but without him Dallas never gets to Washington to play for the playoffs.

The Redskins were one of the 2011 losing record teams to make the playoffs. They did it with a rookie QB and a scheme teams struggled to defend with a veteran head coach.

2013 Outlook: My bias aside, I think it comes down to Dallas vs. NYG. The Redskins are the quintessential team to win the division, then miss the playoffs the following year. 2nd year QB, injury prone QB, team that has not done well leading up to the year they won the division, salary cap issues and a new style of offense that could easily fizzle out next year. Foles is a 2nd year QB and wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. I think Redskins get worse, but are still competitive. The Eagles get slightly better. I think that’s enough to only provide room for 1 team in the division to make the playoffs, NYG or Dallas.


NFC NORTH

Green Bay (13-3)
Chicago (10-6)
Detroit (8-8)
Minnesota (5-11)

I nailed the division winner and Chicago’s record. But, Chicago didn’t make the playoffs. Out of all of the teams there, the Vikings surprised me the most in the entire league. I figured with Ponder being a 2nd year QB and their general lousiness and AP coming off a torn ACL, it would be a long year for the Vikings. Detroit doesn’t have the defense, but I think Schwartz is still worth keeping around.

2013 Outlook: Generally, I think the Packers are still in good position. But, if Rodgers gets knocked out of games they could have some issues. Chicago is completely boom or bust. Going .500+ 2 years in a row, but not winning the division and having a fairly young QB is usually a GOOD thing for the upcoming year. But, changing coaches throws everything out of whack. If they find a coach that can significantly improve the offense, that would put them in prime position to do well in 2013. If they don’t, then they may have some major issues. Detroit should be a top contender for a team with a losing record that makes the playoffs in 2013. The numbers indicate that Minnesota will regress in 2013.


NFC SOUTH

Atlanta (11-5)
Carolina (10-6)
New Orleans (8-8)
Tampa Bay (6-10)

The disappointment was in the Panthers. I fell in love with the Cam-hype and neglected the lack of success 2nd year QB’s have in the league. Still, the team went 7-9 after being 1-15 two years prior (people forget that). I think the Panthers did the right thing keeping Rivera. The Saints fell like I expected. The Falcons got by with an easy schedule, but they did perform when it mattered. The Bucs looked promising, but fizzled out hard towards the end.

2013 Outlook: The numbers don’t work out well for the Falcons. That and Panthers and Saints project to get better. The Bucs are 50/50 at getting better as well. I think the Panthers take the division, Saints get the wildcard.



NFC WEST

Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (7-9)
San Francisco (7-9)
St. Louis (4-12)

I didn’t like the Niners chances since they had a ridiculous amount of fumbles recovered in 2011. They proved me wrong. Arizona had a stellar pass defense. Unfortunately, they had no offense. Seattle was even better than I thought they would be. And I would be feeling really good about the progress the Rams made if I were a Rams fan.


2013 Outlook: Should be a competitive division. Given that the Niners won the division again and the Seahawks were excellent and the Rams were pretty solid with a tough Cardinals pass defense; that indicates that Jim Harbaugh may be a top-3 Head Coach in the league. Still, the jury is out on that idea. But, I think the Niners get usurped and miss the playoffs here.



SUPER BOWL: Denver vs. Atlanta

Still looking good here, particularly since both teams have home field advantage. That’s what I was counting on for both teams and to use that to make the Super Bowl.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Cam Newton QB (Carolina)

Oops. Fell into the Cam-hype. I would give it to Adrian Peterson. He plays in a tougher division and he was the only Vikings threat on offense.


DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Von Miller OLB (Denver)

Hard to argue against 18.5 sacks. But, I would give it to Aldon Smith


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Andrew Luck QB (Indianapolis)

I think he’ll win it. But, I would take RG3


COACH OF THE YEAR: Ron Rivera (Carolina)

Hamstrung by a lousy GM that was fired. I would take Pete Carroll.


COACH FIRINGS: Pat Shurmer (Cleveland), Gary Kubiak (Houston), Lesley Frazier (Minnesota), Ken Wisenhunt (Arizona)

2 out of the 4 were correct. Missed out on Andy Reid, Chan Gailey, Norv Turner, Romeo Crennel (I just forgot to list him), Lovie Smith, (surprising).


Initial 2013 Projected Playoff Teams

AFC

New England
Denver
Houston
San Diego
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati

NFC

Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
Detroit
Carolina
St. Louis








3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

Pretty good predictions IMO. If you get more than half correct you're doing great.

[Richie3Jack]

My 2011 predictions were better.

I only noticed the trends with the Division Winners not making the playoffs in 2011. I noticed the teams with losing records making the playoffs probably close to 6-7 years ago. But, there's still more to learn and as seasons go by I understand the pitfalls.

2012 was just flat out quirky though. Since 1999, there has only been 1 season where more than 4 of the division winners returned to the playoffs (2004). This year we had 6.

Also, there were only 12 teams with losing records in 2011. That's very few and that should have yielded only 3 of those teams making the playoffs.

So...you had 6 division winners and 4 teams with losing records in 2011 making the playoffs in 2012.

The AFC is really 'out-of-whack.' So many terrible QB's in the conference. I think you have Peyton and Brady...then it goes to Roethlisberger who is really good...but, I would take Brees, Rodgers and Ryan over him. And I think if you put Romo on the Steelers, it would be interesting on how his career would have turned out.

Then the dropoff in QB's after Roethlisberger in the AFC is quite dramatic. You're probably going to go with Schaub who has never won a playoff game. Then Flacco. After that, you're looking at Dalton, Rivers and Luck.

The big difference is the lousy AFC teams has nothing at QB. The lousy NFC teams tend to have some talented QB's.







3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

I prefer the NFC East. I think I'm a Skins fan now, but the Eagles keep pulling me back. Andy Redi cannot judge defensive talent. I sense a storm coming for the Eagles.

[mchepp]

I heard an interview with Terrell Owens where he said that Andy Reid was the best coach he has ever played for. I think that says something about how good of a "coach" he is. I think Eagles made a very poor decision.

The Eagles had a very weak pass rush and some zone schemes that made very little sense leaving wide open receivers. I think they should have gone and found a good defensive coordinator and sured up the offensive line.

I am backing up from my Atlanta pick because I worry about their pass rush. They are way down on the list of sacks. I am going Green Bay vs. Denver, but I change my mind all the time.

[Richie3Jack]

Originally, I thought Andy Reid was a great coach because he immediately turned the Eagles around. Even in his first year where they went 5-11, they were very competitive despite a dearth of talent. But, but 2003 somebody posted his record against .500+ teams and it was abysmal. I started to question Reid’s ability from there. People have to remember that most of Reid’s prime years came in a time when the NFC East had Campo, Spurrier and Jim Fassel as the opposing head coaches. And IIRC, Fassel gave Reid fits. I like Fassel as a person (met him a few times in charity golf events, very personable guy), but I don’t think he’s the next Bill Walsh as a coach. And he hasn’t found any other jobs in the NFL since working for the Giants.

Eventually, Parcells came to Dallas. Then came Coughlin and a re-hashed Joe Gibbs. Reid had the NFC East still in hand because the other teams in the division were woefully behind in how they were built. Yet, Reid started to lose games and seasons to these coaches. So, my premonitions on Reid the coach seemed to be coming into fruition at that point.

I was always amazed at how Jim Johnson would come under fire in Philadelphia. Outside of 2005, I can’t remember his defenses every being below average. They were always very good, stingy and played the way you want to see a defense play. As a football fan, if my defense gets beat I always can take some solace if they really went after the offense and kicked the Quarterback’s ass.

But the big thing for me with Johnson was his defenses were impossible to beat when you faced them the second time around. He was such a keen observer of what made a team click. You could score on them in the first meeting, if you were lucky. But, he would shut down your defense the second time around. It’s what I hated about facing the Eagles; the Cowboys offense could do really well the entire year and then get exposed by Johnson the second time around.

Reid seemed like a good gameplanner on offense. I would often see it pretty clearly where Reid thought the weakness on the Cowboys defense was and more often than not he was right. The problem with Reid is that I think he was downright stubborn when it came to the offense.

For years they lacked anything at WR. It was obvious that Reid felt that his scheme would get the WR’s open. When it didn’t, he finally got T.O. who dominated in 2004. All the Eagles had to do was pay the guy a reasonable amount of money and he would have not been a problem. Instead, they chalked it up to the system. T.O. wasn’t going to put up with it and brought down the entire team himself. But, it was Reid’s stubbornness that caused the entire thing.

At the risk of being judgmental, it reminds me a lot of what has gone on with his children. Personally, I would quit football for at least a year and worked to get my children straightened out if I were in Reid’s shoes. He could have taken a year off and even came back to the Eagles. Or he could have found so many other jobs. Instead he continued to neglect the situation and sadly his son Garrett passed away from it.

But there’s other instances as well, like Reid’s resistance to running the ball. What was even crazier was that he had some great tailbacks like Westbrook and McCoy. I remember a reporter asking Reid about it and Reid tried to convince the reporter than screen passes were the same thing as running the ball. Well, they’re not. Completely different structure and design to the play with different outcomes and probabilities. But, Reid would doggedly stick those beliefs.

Still, Jim Johnson was the key. As long as he was around I always felt the Eagles were going to be tough. Particularly at the Linc. As long as he was around, the team had to be on its toes because he could expose the offense and Quarterbacks badly. When Johnson passed away, the question became how good of an evaluator of D-Coordinators is Andy Reid?

Jim Johnson wasn’t very well known and Reid spotted a super coordinator there. But, he couldn’t find one after Johnson passed away. Sean McDermott was a bust and hasn’t done well in Carolina. Again…Reid continues to be stubborn and hires Juan Castillo afterwards.

I have a weird respect for Reid. I kind of like the guy, but don’t quite understand some of his ways. I don’t understand him not taking time off from the job to support his sons and it borders on my losing respect for him as a parent. But, I think he means well. I think he’s a good person. I think he’s a capable coach, but overhyped. I can’t understand why everybody thinks his QB’s are the greatest things to come down the pike, but I marvel at his ability to get production from untalented QB’s and then sell them off to some sucker team for high draft picks.





3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

Reid was a very good coach who couldn't win a SuperBowl. Not sure there's any other way to put it. Most coaches aren't even good, let alone very good in my book. Reid was a horrible judge of first round talent, but a good judge of second round talent. It was time for Reid to go and for the organization to move on since we weren't going to win a SB (like we've ever won won with him. I loved watching a Jimmy Johnson defense. He had his defenses go down swinging.