3Jack's 2012 Final Projected NFL Win Totals

[Richie3Jack]

Here are the projected wins for the 2012 Season.

1. New England Patriots: 13.14
2. Atlanta Falcons: 12.55
3. Denver Broncos: 12.54
4. Seattle Seahawks: 11.46
5. Chicago Bears: 11.14
6. New York Giants: 11.14
7. Houston Texans: 10.92
8. San Francisco 49ers: 10.48
9. Green Bay Packers: 10.40
10. Baltimore Ravens: 9.93
11. Washington Redskins: 9.53
12. Cincinnati Bengals: 8.98
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.62
14. New Orleans Saints: 8.33
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.93
16. Minnesota Vikings: 7.80
17. St. Louis Rams: 7.80
18. San Diego Chargers: 7.38
19. Miami Dolphins: 7.24
20. Cleveland Browns: 7.20
21. Carolina Panthers: 6.94
22. Dallas Cowboys: 6.55
23. Buffalo Bills: 6.52
24. Arizona Cardinals: 6.13
25. Detroit Lions: 6.05
26. Oakland Raiders: 5.73
27. Indianapolis Colts: 5.58
28. Tennessee Titans: 5.15
29. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4.47
30. New York Jets: 4.45
31. Philadelphia Eagles: 2.10
32. Kansas City Chiefs: 0.77

Not very far off.

Projected Team Wins On the Number: 7

(Atlanta, Denver, Baltimore, Washington, San Diego, Miami, Carolina)


Projected Team Wins off by -1 or +1: 16

(New England, Seattle, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Buffalo, Arizona, Houston, San Francisco, Green Bay, Dallas, Tennessee, Kansas City)


Projected Team Wins off by -2 or +2: 8

(NY Giants, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland, Jacksonville, Minnesota, NY Jets, Philadelphia)


That leaves only Indianapolis. Then were projected to win 5.58 wins (rounded to 6 wins) and they actually went 11-5.


As far as the Super Bowl, there has been a big historical trend towards Super Bowl winners having the following criteria:

1. A positive ‘QB Rating Differential’ (QB rating offense – QB rating defense = QBRD)
2. A positive turnover margin
3. Ranking in the top-8 in points allowed
4. Having 40 sacks on the season

Out of all of the teams in the playoffs, only 1 team did this in 2012:

Cincinnati Bengals

I don’t quite feel comfortable picking the Bengals, mainly because they are a 6th seed.

Teams that came close were:

Denver (-1 in turnover margin)
Houston (t-9th in points allowed)
New England (t-9th in points allowed, 37 sacks)
San Francisco (38 sacks)
Seattle (36 sacks)

I would take out Seattle because they have a rookie QB. The last rookie QB to make the Super Bowl was David Woodley in 1982.

I think the top contenders for the Super Bowl are:

Denver
Houston
New England
Cincinnati
San Francisco

Looking at Denver, they have HFA. Furthermore, their turnover margin issue is due to fumbles on offense that they don’t recover. That is usually random chance and will eventually go towards the mean (50/50 chance of recovering a fumble).

That would leave me with San Francisco as the NFC team.







3JACK

[mchepp]

On the radio today is said that the Colts where the worst team to make the playoffs in recent history. Something about they had been outscored overall on the season. So they defied the odds which is no surprise your calculations were off on them.

The Bengals are a very good team and have played really really well here late in the season. Beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a game Pittsburgh had to have is nothing to shake a stick at. I think their only issue is the QB play in the AFC is off the charts with Brady and Manning, and Dalton doesn't stack up all that well against them.

[Richie3Jack]

I think the AFC QB play is terrible. You have Brady and Peyton...after that it's not all that great. Particularly on the teams in the AFC with losing records:

Jets (Sanchez)
Bills (Fitzpatrick)
Miami (Tannehill)
Cleveland (Weeden)
Jacksonville (Gabbert/Henne)
Tennessee (Locker/Hasselbeck)
San Diego (Rivers)
Oakland (Palmer/Pryor)
Kansas City (Cassel/Quinn)

Out of the bunch, the only good QB is Rivers. I think Tannehill could be listed as an unknown commodity. The others are known and stink.

For the winning teams outside of the Patriots and Denver, you have Dalton, Schaub, Flacco and Luck.

I wouldn't poo-poo on Dalton or Luck, but they are young, limited QB's at this point in their career. I think Schaub is pretty good. Flacco makes you wonder if he can ever get over the hump to become a good QB.

But...

Let's look at the NFC.

NFC QB's on losing teams:

Philadelphia (Vick/Foles)
Detroit (Stafford)
New Orleans (Brees)
Tampa Bay (Freeman)
Carolina (Newton)
St. Louis (Bradford)
Arizona (Kolb/Skelton/etc)

That's a very solid group of QB's. Even Bradfor you could argue he has not much surrounding him. Newton draws the ire of fans, but he was a legit Pro Bowler last season and does not have a lot surrounding him. Brees is surpassing passing records. And Josh Freeman I don't think is a bad QB. I think if he was on a team in the AFC, he would look better due to the dearth of quality QB's in that conference.

Here are the QB's with .500+ records in the NFC.

Washington (RG3)
Dallas (Romo)
NY Giants (Eli)
Chicago (Cutler)
Green Bay (Rodgers)
Minnesota (Ponder)
Atlanta (Ryan)
San Francisco (Smith/Kaepernick)
Seattle (Wilson)

Strangely, the lesser QB's of that bunch appear to be the younger, unknown commodities like Kaepernick, Wilson and RG3. Even Ponder is still an unknown commodity.









3JACK

[mchepp]

I meant to say AFC playoff teams. Mainly that if the Bengals could get past the Texans they would be facing Brady or Manning and they would be at a disadvantage at the QB position.

I really liked the Texans at the beginning of the season. If I had a preseason pick they would have been it, but Schaub is not a very good pocket passer and they have struggled to run the ball lately. If they cannot get the ground game going I think the Bengals can beat them.

[jamo]

Jan 4, 2013 14:06:10 GMT -5 mchepp said:

On the radio today is said that the Colts where the worst team to make the playoffs in recent history. Something about they had been outscored overall on the season. So they defied the odds which is no surprise your calculations were off on them.

The Bengals are a very good team and have played really really well here late in the season. Beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a game Pittsburgh had to have is nothing to shake a stick at. I think their only issue is the QB play in the AFC is off the charts with Brady and Manning, and Dalton doesn't stack up all that well against them.

I heard that by Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, the 2012 Colts are the worst team to ever make the playoffs since they started keeping the stat (1991ish)

[Richie3Jack]

I can believe it. Typically in this situation you'll see a team that is a very good running team. That keeps them in the game and if they get some luck (no pun intended) they can pull out some victories. But the Colts were not even a good running team.





3JACK