3Jack's Initial 2013 NFL Forecast

[Richie3Jack]

Yes, I know it’s early. But, I wanted to give my initial thoughts with the draft being over.

For those not familiar with this, I have toyed with statistics for the NFL as well. In fact, I’ve developed some friendships with people who work with a ‘Moneyball approach’ to the NFL and that inspired me to create Pro Golf Synopsis.

One of the things I have found that is a different approach to the game and forecasting teams and their success is that I started to recognize that the NFL is really a system of parity. It almost works like a machine in the sense that good teams are likely to not stay a good team for long and bad teams are often not likely to stay bad for long. The key has been identifying what teams will rise and which ones will regress versus which ones will stay the same.

I’ll try to be brief here.

We had 16 teams with losing records. That projects to the following:

5 of the 2012 division winners will return to the playoffs

5 of the 16 teams with losing records in 2012 will make the playoffs.

That leaves us with 2 teams that either were a wildcard team in 2012 or went .500+ in 2012, but did not make the playoffs.

Here are my CURRENT projected playoff teams (of course this can change with injuries and the sort in preseason):

AFC

New England
Baltimore
Denver
Tennessee
San Diego
Cincinnati


Green Bay
San Francisco
New Orleans
NY Giants
Carolina
Detroit






3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

There can only be, and only ever was, one team there Richie. E-A-G-L-E-S!

Countless rings and titles. F the Steelers! We have 7 in my mind.

I predict San Franciso vs. Broncos in the SB. SF wins.

Cocaine is a hell of a drug!
-Rick James

[Richie3Jack]

I would probably go New England vs. New Orleans at this moment.









3JACK