Post by Richie3Jack on Dec 31, 2013 11:45:03 GMT -5
Here are the end of year projected wins based on key performance metrics:
Click to enlarge
The biggest difference in the negative (projected wins were more than actual wins) was Tampa Bay. They were projected to win 7.146 games and won only 4.
The biggest positive difference (projected wins were less than actual wins) was the NY Jets. They were only projected to win 4.002 games and instead came away with 8 wins.
The typical trend shows that being negative is better for the next season. Last year’s team with the largest negative difference was Carolina who made the playoffs this year. It appears that Lovie Smith will be the next Tampa coach (good for him, he was fired after going 10-6 and somehow couldn’t land a job while less qualified and lousy coaches could keep their job). So I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Lovie make a run in 2014. Although I still have my doubts given the QB.
Here’s my look at the playoff teams and their statistics:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ main problems are that they fumble the ball quite often and their defense is not as bad as people think, but they have issues with forcing turnovers. The defense has been short fielded by the fumbles on offense and can’t stop the opponents from scoring off those turnovers. However, it’s very hard to force turnovers and stop points when you are short fielded. I think the key is if Peyton shows up (he’s still not always the greatest in postseason games) and they can stop fumbling the ball there is no reason why they can’t win the whole thing. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if some costly fumbles cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.
2. New England
From a statistical standpoint this is a typical Bill Belichick team. They don’t look all that hot on defense, but they are good at stiffening up near the goal line and they are great at forcing turnovers. The weakest part? Their pass offense. Only a 87.3 QB rating for the year. I think a good offense that can run the ball and not turn it over may give them some real trouble. Particularly if they have a corner that can handle Julian Edleman.
3. Cincinnati
Really good team statistically. Where they have struggles is in the turnover margin as they were only +1 for the entire season. It appears that most of the problem stems from Andy Dalton being likely to throw picks and that disturbs the otherwise good defense. 2nd in QB Rating allow. I could see them giving Denver fits.
4. Indianapolis
I think the Chiefs will take the Colts. The Colts are not great at winning the passing battle. They only had a +1.9 QBRD. It really depends if Andrew Luck can be the ‘good’ Andrew Luck instead of the inconsistent Andrew Luck. Other than that, their metrics are very sound. But the passing game battle is a biggie and that spells doom for the Colts.
5. Kansas City
They ranked 2nd in projected win total. So they had some excellent performance metrics. In fact, they had the 2nd best overall defense. But the issue here is that they are not a good passing team (88.6 QB Rating). They also do a sub-standard job of protecting Alex Smith (18th in Adjusted Sacks Allowed). I think they can make the championship game, but I think in the end they will be hamstrung by Smith’s inability to throw the ball very effectively.
6. San Diego
As far as their performance metrics with scoring the ball on offense, they are poor. But, they have some great passing numbers. Meanwhile their defensive scoring data is pretty good. This tells me that this is a very good offense, but a horrendous defense. The defense not only gives up points, but can’t force turnovers. And their special teams play isn’t very good either. So their offense has to move the ball a good chunk of the field to score because their defense can’t stop anybody. However, it does move the ball down the field and doesn’t turn it over. I think Cincy handles them unless Dalton gets careless with the ball.
NFC
1. Seattle
Probably the best team in football and they have a +20 turnover margin. The only problem I see is that Russell Wilson gets sacked a lot (last in Adjusted Sacks Allowed). That could mean either an injury or just eventual troubles passing the ball. But given their dominance at home, they are the team to beat in the NFC.
2. Carolina
An awesome defense. Their passing game is okay (88.8 QB Rating). They are very good against the run and force turnovers, but they give up some big plays in the passing game. Cam Newton also gets sacked a lot (25th in Adjusted Sacks Allowed). I wouldn’t be surprised if they were upset in 2 weeks.
3. Philadelphia
Their running game carries the team. They also seem to score in spurts and then go into droughts. Their defense is a bit porous (17th in points allowed). They also give up a lot of sacks (31st in Adjusted Sacks Allowed).
4. Green Bay
Tough to say much since the metrics are skewed by Rodgers’ injury. However, they still passed the ball well (91.7 QB Rating). The problem is that their defense is horrendous. I think they’ll have their hands full with the Niners.
5. San Francisco
I think they are the surprise team here. The only metrics that gave them trouble is that they were ‘only’ ranked 9th in QB rating. And they did rank 22nd in Adjusted Sacks Allowed. Other than that, they do everything quite well. I don’t think they have a lot of explosion on offense, so they can’t score quickly or in bunches and just blow out the other team. But, I like their chances…a lot.
6. New Orleans
Their issue seems to be their inability to get turnovers. This forces their offense to drive long lengths of the field to score. They are not a bad defense, but their weakness is forcing turnovers. I think their game versus Philly should be a really good one because it is a very interesting matchup.
If I had to pick right now, based solely on the metrics, I would go with Seattle vs. Cincinnati.
If I had to pick based on gut, I would go with Seattle vs. New England
3JACK
Click to enlarge
The biggest difference in the negative (projected wins were more than actual wins) was Tampa Bay. They were projected to win 7.146 games and won only 4.
The biggest positive difference (projected wins were less than actual wins) was the NY Jets. They were only projected to win 4.002 games and instead came away with 8 wins.
The typical trend shows that being negative is better for the next season. Last year’s team with the largest negative difference was Carolina who made the playoffs this year. It appears that Lovie Smith will be the next Tampa coach (good for him, he was fired after going 10-6 and somehow couldn’t land a job while less qualified and lousy coaches could keep their job). So I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Lovie make a run in 2014. Although I still have my doubts given the QB.
Here’s my look at the playoff teams and their statistics:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ main problems are that they fumble the ball quite often and their defense is not as bad as people think, but they have issues with forcing turnovers. The defense has been short fielded by the fumbles on offense and can’t stop the opponents from scoring off those turnovers. However, it’s very hard to force turnovers and stop points when you are short fielded. I think the key is if Peyton shows up (he’s still not always the greatest in postseason games) and they can stop fumbling the ball there is no reason why they can’t win the whole thing. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if some costly fumbles cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.
2. New England
From a statistical standpoint this is a typical Bill Belichick team. They don’t look all that hot on defense, but they are good at stiffening up near the goal line and they are great at forcing turnovers. The weakest part? Their pass offense. Only a 87.3 QB rating for the year. I think a good offense that can run the ball and not turn it over may give them some real trouble. Particularly if they have a corner that can handle Julian Edleman.
3. Cincinnati
Really good team statistically. Where they have struggles is in the turnover margin as they were only +1 for the entire season. It appears that most of the problem stems from Andy Dalton being likely to throw picks and that disturbs the otherwise good defense. 2nd in QB Rating allow. I could see them giving Denver fits.
4. Indianapolis
I think the Chiefs will take the Colts. The Colts are not great at winning the passing battle. They only had a +1.9 QBRD. It really depends if Andrew Luck can be the ‘good’ Andrew Luck instead of the inconsistent Andrew Luck. Other than that, their metrics are very sound. But the passing game battle is a biggie and that spells doom for the Colts.
5. Kansas City
They ranked 2nd in projected win total. So they had some excellent performance metrics. In fact, they had the 2nd best overall defense. But the issue here is that they are not a good passing team (88.6 QB Rating). They also do a sub-standard job of protecting Alex Smith (18th in Adjusted Sacks Allowed). I think they can make the championship game, but I think in the end they will be hamstrung by Smith’s inability to throw the ball very effectively.
6. San Diego
As far as their performance metrics with scoring the ball on offense, they are poor. But, they have some great passing numbers. Meanwhile their defensive scoring data is pretty good. This tells me that this is a very good offense, but a horrendous defense. The defense not only gives up points, but can’t force turnovers. And their special teams play isn’t very good either. So their offense has to move the ball a good chunk of the field to score because their defense can’t stop anybody. However, it does move the ball down the field and doesn’t turn it over. I think Cincy handles them unless Dalton gets careless with the ball.
NFC
1. Seattle
Probably the best team in football and they have a +20 turnover margin. The only problem I see is that Russell Wilson gets sacked a lot (last in Adjusted Sacks Allowed). That could mean either an injury or just eventual troubles passing the ball. But given their dominance at home, they are the team to beat in the NFC.
2. Carolina
An awesome defense. Their passing game is okay (88.8 QB Rating). They are very good against the run and force turnovers, but they give up some big plays in the passing game. Cam Newton also gets sacked a lot (25th in Adjusted Sacks Allowed). I wouldn’t be surprised if they were upset in 2 weeks.
3. Philadelphia
Their running game carries the team. They also seem to score in spurts and then go into droughts. Their defense is a bit porous (17th in points allowed). They also give up a lot of sacks (31st in Adjusted Sacks Allowed).
4. Green Bay
Tough to say much since the metrics are skewed by Rodgers’ injury. However, they still passed the ball well (91.7 QB Rating). The problem is that their defense is horrendous. I think they’ll have their hands full with the Niners.
5. San Francisco
I think they are the surprise team here. The only metrics that gave them trouble is that they were ‘only’ ranked 9th in QB rating. And they did rank 22nd in Adjusted Sacks Allowed. Other than that, they do everything quite well. I don’t think they have a lot of explosion on offense, so they can’t score quickly or in bunches and just blow out the other team. But, I like their chances…a lot.
6. New Orleans
Their issue seems to be their inability to get turnovers. This forces their offense to drive long lengths of the field to score. They are not a bad defense, but their weakness is forcing turnovers. I think their game versus Philly should be a really good one because it is a very interesting matchup.
If I had to pick right now, based solely on the metrics, I would go with Seattle vs. Cincinnati.
If I had to pick based on gut, I would go with Seattle vs. New England
3JACK