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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 25, 2014 13:15:45 GMT -5
Here's the 4-ball (low score) pairings. The 4-some pairings are not made until after the 4-ball pairings:
Webb Simpson/Bubba Watson vs. Justin Rose/Henrik Stenson
Simpon and Bubba in the 4-ball format is a pretty good team. However, Simpson has been very average on the par-3's this season because his play from the Red Zone (175-225 yards) has been poor (159th). Bubba has played the par-3's well this year (57th), but has traditionally been a weak par-3 player. Rose has been pretty good on the par-3's while Stenson has been poor 124th.
I like this matchup from a competitive standpoint and I think the par-3's or the par-5's may decide this match. I like that Simpson and Bubba were very good in the 4-ball format at Medinah because they matched up so well. But, DL III made one of his few mistakes by having them play in the 4-some (alternate shot) format. Ideally, I want to get at least 11 players playing on Friday...so I would probably either end up sitting out Mahan or Simpson. I don't like Mahan in the 4-some format because his iron play is poor and his short game is poor. Personally, I would have gone with Mahan here because I think he's been playing better than Simpson lately and I would rather try to get him going early given his solid track record at the Ryder Cup.
Jimmy Walker/Ricky Fowler vs. Thomas Bjorn/Martin Kaymer
Another really good pairing for the 4-ball format by Watson. They both score very well and make a ton of birdies. I would have preferred Fowler with Keegan and Walker with Reed, but it's not a bad pick here. Don't know much on Bjorn. Walker and Fowler can dominate them on the par-5's as Kaymer ranked 122nd in Adjusted Par-5 Scoring Average. I don't think Bjorn is super-long, so I doubt he is that great of a par-5 player to make up for Kaymer's struggles.
Jordan Spieth/Patrick Reed vs. Stephen Gallacher/Ian Poulter
I like the pairing of Spieth and Reed as Reed has struggled on the par-3's (120th) and Spieth is excellent on the par-3's (14th). They both make a ton of birdies as well.
My feeling on Reed is that he is the type that when his confidence gets going, he's as good as anybody in the world...even Rory. Think of Angel Cabrera when Cabrera gets on a roll at Augusta. Reed is that good when his confidence is flowing. But, past match play success outside of the Ryder Cup has zero correlation to how well a player will play in the Ryder Cup. So for all of Reed's match play success, the Ryder Cup is a completely different game.
I have some skepticism of throwing him to the wolves in going against Poulter. But on the other hand, if Reed and Spieth can slay the dragon in Poulter, it can set the tone right away. And if Reed gets going early on, I could see him dominating the Ryder Cup.
Keegan Bradley/Phil Mickelson vs. Sergio Garcia/Rory McIlroy
I think this was Europe's answer to Keegan vs. Phil. And I think Tom Watson has to be unafraid of breaking up the duo if it doesn't work out since Phil's play has tailed off this year. What scares me is the par-5's as Keegan ranked 91st and Phil ranked 76th compared to Rory ranking 4th and Sergio ranking 42nd. Going in I thought Sergio/Rory or Rory/Justin Rose were likely Europe's strongest teams.
It's hard to knock Tom Watson for starting out with Keegan and Phil, but I would be more concerned on the 4-some format and I think Keegan and Phil are more dangerous in the 4-some format and Phil just isn't going to play in each match.
From an entertainment standpoint, I think we have 3 very enticing matches (#1, #3, and #4). I don't think Watson has any players that are ill-suited for 4-ball (i.e. Furyk). So we'll see how he handles it after Friday.
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 26, 2014 9:00:42 GMT -5
I have yet to watch the day 1 action, but I've seen the results. So there is a spoiler here.
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Watson/Simpson vs. Stenson/Rose
I thought this had the potential to be a great match, but it was a blowout and it appeared that both Bubba and Webb played terrible. This does not bode very well for the US Team because neither Bubba or Webb are that well suited in the 4-some (alternate shot) format.
Fowler/Walker vs. Bjorn/Kaymer
I thought this was a match the US could dominate on, particularly on the par-5's. They did win the par-5's by a score of 3-1. Fowler appears to not have played very well and Walker played fantastic. This still bodes a bit of a problem for the US because Fowler should be a better 4-some player and if he is cold, you'll have to find the right player to play with Walker if you want to ride the hot hand.
Reed/Spieth vs. Poulter/Gallacher
Over the night the more I thought about the Reed/Spieth pairing in particular going against Poulter the more I liked it. You have Reed and Spieth, 2 young guys that are likely to be unafraid of facing Poulter. The ole 'too young to know any better.' If they win, it sends a big message to the European team. If they lose...well, they were supposed to lose to Mr. Ryder Cup. And I just had a good feeling that Patrick Reed would be chomping at the bit to take on Poulter...but had the same feeling about Spieth as well. It appears that both played well here and ran roughshod over Poulter/Gallacher.
Bradley/Mickelson vs. McIlroy/Garcia
My numbers had McIlroy/Rose as the strongest team statistically on either side. McIlroy/Garcia was #2. The numbers showed that the Keegan/Phil in 4-ball were a solid team, but there was a possible hole on the par-5's which is unlike Keegan and Phil. The numbers are there to understand the odds. As Ron Jaworski likes to say about statistics in sports it's not about certainty, it's about probability. The difficult thing to account for is those players in the Ryder Cup that just happen to play better than expected. I think you're going to be in for a disappointment if you make a bad pairing by the numbers and think that a player will 'rise to the occasion because it is the Ryder Cup.' But in the case of Phil/Keegan, you have a team that is pretty solid by the numbers that clearly rises to the occasion. Anyway, I was worried about the par-5's for Bradley and Mickelson and they went 3-0-1 against McIlroy/Garcia.
It appears that Garcia did not play well which doesn't surprise me because he started to struggle a bit down the stretch with his ballstriking in the playoffs. And he seems to be a very emotional player and needs the right partner. I think that is something the European team may struggle to find.
This appears to be a fantastic match.
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 26, 2014 9:24:10 GMT -5
Here's a look at the 4-some matches
Furyk/Kuchar vs. Westwood/Donaldson
Furyk/Kuchar should be a solid pairing. Kuchar's main weakness is shots from the rough, but Furyk is very accurate and almost hits it the same distance off the tee. Furyk's issues is his putting. But, Kuchar is a good iron player from the fairway and has putted superbly this year. I don't know much about Donaldson outside of a few events he played this year that they kept record of. He appears to be a very good driver of the ball and that is probably why they kept him for the 4-some format. Westwood's ballstriking was up-and-down this year. He appeared to focus more on his putting and short game and that hurt his strengths. Very inconsistent player to get a feel on. Kinda surprised they put him in the 4-some format.
Mahan/Z. Johnson vs. Rose/Stenson
I don't think Rose/Stenson are as good of a 4-some team as a 4-ball format. They have some parts that don't quite match, but should be tough on par-4's when Stenson is teeing off because Stenson is a superb driver of the ball and Rose is one of the best iron players on Tour. When Rose is teeing off, he's been a bit down this year off the tee and Stenson is a below average iron player which leads to Rose putting and he's average at best with the putter.
I am not a fan of the Mahan pick in the 4-some format. He's a great driver of the ball, but his iron play has massively struggled this season. And his short game has been subpar as well. I think this is Rose/Stenson all the way.
Walker/Fowler vs. McIlroy/Garcia
Maybe Watson saw something in their 4-ball play, but this is a terrible pairing statistically. We know that Walker is a great putter and he appeared to play very well in 4-ball, but he's a crooked driver of the ball and Rickie is a below average player from the rough. I think McIlroy and Garcia win here.
Bradley/Mickelson vs. Dubuisson/McDowell
Most think Dubuisson is a short game wizard after his amazing shots from the Accenture Match play. But he was actually very poor in his short game on Tour this year. He was a solid driver of the ball that hit it quite far and was excellent from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards). McDowell is very accurate and effective off the tee and very good from the Red Zone. He tapered off a little from those areas, but he became #1 in Putts Gained. However, he is also a poor Short Game player.
So if either Dubuisson or McDowell miss a green, it's a big advantage towards Bradley/Mickelson.
I can see these matches going 2-2....Furyk/Kuchar and Bradley/Mickelson winning and Walker/Fowler and Mahan/Johnson losing.
So far the 4-ball pairings by Watson were in-line for the most part with the statistics.
The 4-some pairings are not and I think it will cost the US team at least a point.
Watson will have to figure out how to handle Bubba tomorrow and deal with the possibility of Phil not wanting to play 2 matches on Saturday. I would probably start leaning on Spieth and see how Reed plays in 4-ball because if he is as good as he looks, he may be worth the shot at playing in the 4-some.
What Watson has done well is that everybody on the US team has played (the same with Europe), so he can get a good idea of how each player is playing and go from there to judge who plays and who sits on Saturday.
3JACK
3JACK
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 26, 2014 13:28:46 GMT -5
Europe leads the US by 5-3.
I stated from the beginning that the 4-some format will likely decide this and I think Watson did a weak job of pairing the 4-some. But, the bigger story was the lack of performance from Zach, Furyk and Kuchar.
There will be a lot of people griping about not continuing with Spieth and Reed in the 4-some format. Tough call because Reed's metrics don't really fit 4-some format and it's a leap in faith to think that he will become a straight hitting, short game phenom in the 4-some format.
Plus, the good part is that every player did play in the 4-some format and had Spieth and Reed played, that would mean that Walker and Fowler would not get in and they were the only team to tie in the 4-some format.
I believe they start off with 4-ball tomorrow. I would probably try and start Reed and Spieth early. And if they are hot again, then move them to the 4-some format.
Apparently, Webb Simpson was putrid (hated the pick from day one).
I would probably start off this way:
Keegan/Phil
Reed/Spieth
Mahan/Bubba
Fowler/Walker
Outside of Mahan/Bubba, I probably would be intent on playing them in the 4-some format unless somebody doesn't play well. I think it's safe to say that Furyk just doesn't get the job done in the Ryder Cup (and this coming from a huge Furyk fan).
3JACK
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dhc1
'88 Apex Redlines
Posts: 178
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Post by dhc1 on Sept 27, 2014 12:04:39 GMT -5
Is there any way to see how each team/individual did statistically? I don't think they use shotlink for Ryder cup but it seemed to me that most of the shots gained by the euros were around the green where they were holing chips/long putts where statistically they had no right to make that many.
Reversion to the mean should kick in, right?
My first reaction is that the US team is playing average (no shots gained) while the euros are riding an outlier wave (again).
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 29, 2014 8:52:15 GMT -5
I don't know of any way to see how each team did individually other than the Ryder Cup Web site will post the card of whose score was taken from the team in the 4-ball format.
I said this from the onset...the 4-some play will decide this. US team went 5-3 in 4-ball and then went 1-7 in 4-some.
And as I've said with 4-some format...short game play is at a premium.
With that said, can't blame everything on Watson or even 50% on Watson. So many players did not execute.
I do agree with Mickelson in that the US team seems to have gotten away from Azinger's methods, but DL3 gave the team in 2012 every right to win (10-6 going into Sunday) and the US team couldn't get it done.
I wrote about this on Twitter...I think one of the things the US team has to start doing is getting out of the mindset of 'playing for your country.'
I think that is a great mindset to have when you are playing physical contact sports where a high energy can be the difference between winning and losing. In golf, it just adds pressure.
The European team isn't 'golfing for their country.' Rory is golfing to prove that he's better than everybody out there. Jamie Donaldson is golfing to show that he belongs in that class of European players that you talk about when it comes to winning majors and coming over to the PGA Tour and being successful. Justin Rose is playing to show that he can play as well as anybody in the world.
It's a different and better mindset.
But, I think in the end the fact is that the European team was far more talented. I would just like to see the US team make a go of it and actually beat the Europeans on European soil.
Seve used to tell people that he enjoyed nothing more in golf than beating American golfers (whether it was the Ryder Cup or in a major) on American soil. I believe the Europeans have many players that feel that way. I don't believe the US team has had a player like that in the past 20 years.
3JACK
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Post by pavaveda on Sept 29, 2014 12:09:48 GMT -5
Rich, I think it may be because they aren't chasing after money. If I were the US captain, I'd spend as much time as possible trying to get the player's sponsors to make sure that each player knows they will get a very sizable bonus if they can win the Ryder Cup. For the sake of the spirit of the game, these bonuses should never be made public knowledge, but I just don't know what else would work with these guys who are so rich and comfortable that it is clear that once they make the team, their work is done. I would include additional bonuses for a player if they are the leading point getter, top 3 in points, beat certain key opponents, win a team and a singles match, etc.
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Post by gmbtempe on Sept 30, 2014 11:48:13 GMT -5
Ryder Cup is so one sided its hard to watch anymore. I caught bits and pieces because I taped it but did not get too caught up in it.
Furyk has to be statistically the worst ryder cup player ever..............I suppose someone from GB in the 70's but in modern RC.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Sept 30, 2014 16:07:58 GMT -5
Furyk's record is awful. Part of it is that he's a lousy 4-ball player. Ironically, they put him the 4-ball and they won. But, he should have the game for the Ryder Cup. Scores well. Hit it accurately off the tee and has a great short game.
In recent years we've seen Furyk fold under pressure, like at the US Open at Olympic Club.
I still like the RC for the pageantry and hoopla. It's such a unique environment for golf and the President's Cup is nothing like it.
Sorta like wanting to watch #16 at TPC Scottsdale on Sunday. There's nothing like it even though it's a rather pedestrian golf hole.
I think Phil is frustrated with losing and took it out on Watson. But, I also think Watson did a poor job. Not convinced it would have made a difference when you lose Dustin Johnson, Tiger and Dufner. Those guys eat up a lot of Ryder Cup points.
But, they need to figure out the foursome format. I do believe much of it is statistically related, but I like the idea of the pods system to go along with the statistical pairing.
If you look at the Europeans, they are very much geared towards short game play. Especially the Swedes. I swear, it must be something in the water in Sweden because between guys like Jacobson, Parnevik, Karlsson, Blixt, etc...all have fantastic short games.
But, on the PGA Tour you limit yourself if you have a great short game and can't strike the ball well. So you don't see as many great short game artists on the US side.
Almost all of those Tour events where the winning score is -16 or lower...it's about striking the ball and putting from 5-20 feet. You're not going to hit as many GIR's in the foursome format, so you need to save par and chip-in.
I don't have much in the way of metrics of the European Tour, but the European prowess with the short game indicates its importance on that Tour. I also know that the best wind players are typically good wedge players and the Euro Tour features much more wind.
And the one guy that doesn't have that great of a short game is Rory, who has been lukewarm in the Ryder Cup...but dominates on the PGA Tour and in the majors.
3JACK
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