3Jack's 2011 NFL Mock Draft

[Richie3Jack]

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton QB (Auburn)
2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson CB (Louisiana State)
3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)
4. Cincinnati Bengals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)
5. Arizona Cardinals – Marcel Dareus DT (Alabama)
6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)
7. San Francisco 49ers – Robert Quinn DE (North Carolina)
8. Tennessee Titans – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)
9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith OT (Southern California)
10. Washington Redskins – Jake Locker QB (Washington)
11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara CB (Nebraska)
12. Minnesota Vikings – Ryan Kerrigan DE (Purdue)
13. Detroit Lions – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)
14. St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith DE (Missouri)
15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey C (Florida)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)
17. New England Patriots – Cameron Jordan DE (California)
18. San Diego Chargers – JJ Watt DE (Wisconsin)
19. New York Giants – Anthony Costanzo OT (Boston College)
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – D’Aquan Bowers DE (Clemson)
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)
22. Indianapolis Colts – Corey Liuget DT (Illinois)
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Phil Taylor DT (Baylor)
24. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)
25. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallet QB (Arkansas)
26. Baltimore Ravens – Aaron Williams CB (Texas)
27. Atlanta Falcons – Adrian Clayborne DE (Iowa)
28. New England Patriots – Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)
29. Chicago Bears – Muhammad Wilkerson DT (Temple)
30. New York Jets – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – James Carpenter OT (Alabama)
32. Green Bay Packers – Cameron Heyward DE (Ohio State)


1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton QB (Auburn)

Since 1990, the majority of #1 overall picks have been Quarterbacks. You just shouldn’t pass up on a QB with legitimate franchise material, as the Dolphins are finding out even though Jake Long is a Pro Bowler (missed out on Matt Ryan). I actually love Newton’s potential and SKILLS. His lack of football concerns me a bit though. And remember, the Panthers are one of the teams ‘hurting’ financially and could use something to rejuvenate the fanbase.

2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson CB (Louisiana State)

My highest rated player in the draft. I don’t see Elway picking a DT. Von Miller could be a possibility as well.

3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)

They seem to like Fitzpatrick although I think they are tantalized by Newton. I don’t think Gabbert is a consideration.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)

The question is…does he have a rap sheet?

Who knows with the Bengals.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Marcel Dareus DT (Alabama)

Seem comfortable with Max Hall and John Skelton. Put Darnell Dockett one-on-one with a guard or a center and they don’t stand a chance.

6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)

They seem to like Colt McCoy, so they’ll probably want to give him a weapon.

7. San Francisco 49ers – Robert Quinn DE (North Carolina)

Could use a QB, but I think they look at the second round for one like an Andy Dalton or a Mallet or a Ponder, etc.

8. Tennessee Titans – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)

Badly need a QB.

9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith OT (Southern California)

I think if they can trade up to #7 and snag Peterson, they will. I would prefer to see them trade down to say #13-15 and collect some more picks. Smith seems like the safe bet.

10. Washington Redskins – Jake Locker QB (Washington)

I honestly do not see the appeal of Locker, a QB I’ve watched a lot of since his rookie year. Ever have that person that coming out of high school was supposed to be the next great thing in sports but you can’t understand why? Then they have a very average college career and people still talk about their potential and how great they are and you still don’t see it? That’s Jake Locker for me.

11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara CB (Nebraska)

Could go OLB as Wade Phillips is their new D-Coordinator, but I think they have a bigger need at corner.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Ryan Kerrigan DE (Purdue)

Another team that I think will try and draft a QB in round 2. They do need help opposite of Jared Allen.

13. Detroit Lions – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)

Need help in the secondary. Would think they would trade down, but the Lions never do that. Solder should be a solid pick.

14. St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith DE (Missouri)

Spagnolo comes from the Eagles where their school of thought is to stockpile D-Linemen and have them rush the QB hard and keep subbing them in and out so they don’t get tired.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey C (Florida)

I think they are scared of Ingram’s knee. Will probably like Pouncey at center.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)

Jacksonville usually reaches in the first round and they tend to favor tall players. Enter Jimmy Smith.

17. New England Patriots – Cameron Jordan DE (California)

It’s kinda funny that when I look at these mock drafts every year, they always have the Pats drafting some white kid. But the Pats almost never draft a white kid in the first round.

18. San Diego Chargers – JJ Watt DE (Wisconsin)

Could probably go as high as #7 overall.

19. New York Giants – Anthony Costanzo OT (Boston College)

Coughlin still has Boston College ties and they need O-Linemen.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – D’Aquan Bowers DE (Clemson)

Have reportedly wanted a stud DE although it may be a smoke screen.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)

Need somebody opposite of Branden Albert

22. Indianapolis Colts – Corey Liuget DT (Illinois)

Colts tend to favor Big Ten players for whatever reason.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Phil Taylor DT (Baylor)

I don’t see the Eagles going after Ingram. They are a team that favors OT, DT, DE and Corner in round one…heavily.

24. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)

I actually like Ingram a lot. He’s a great athlete, works hard and is a tough, smart runner. I think Sean Payton realizes that his offense is tough to stop when they can pound the rock at will.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallet QB (Arkansas)

When I think of Pete Carroll, I don’t think of a coach that was too overly worried about off-the-field issues. I like Mallet a lot. He’s better in the pocket than give credit for and can make all of the throws and played in a pro style offense.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Aaron Williams CB (Texas)

Need DB help pretty bad. Williams can play corner or safety..

27. Atlanta Falcons – Adrian Clayborne DE (Iowa)

Need a pass rusher opposite of John Abraham.

28. New England Patriots – James Carpenter OT (Alabama)

Need OT help, relationship with Saban helps.

29. Chicago Bears – Muhammad Wilkerson DT (Temple)

Always like to go after D-Linemen. Need an OT, but may wait in round 2 for some player from Nowhere State University.

30. New York Jets – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)

Need OLB help pretty badly.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)

May not want to go O-Line after drafting a center last year. But their OT’s don’t have a lot of life to them.

32. Green Bay Packers – Cameron Heyward DE (Ohio State)

Should fit their system well.

[mchepp]

My feeling is that the 49ers cannot wait until the second round to get Dalton. I think he is one of their targets but I think if they wait till the second round it will be too late. It is tough spot for them, it is a waste to pick him #7, not the best player available in that slot, but if wait until the 2nd round they will have missed out. They may have to trade into a late 1st round spot to try and get him.

[Richie3Jack]

I would probably wait until the 2nd round if I were the Niners because I like Newton and Mallet, I'm not high on Gabbert and I think Jake Locker stinks. The other guys like Ponder and Dalton I think have some promise. So if they could get one of either Mallet or Ponder or Dalton, they are in good shape. Hear that the Bengals really like Dalton.







3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Talked to a friend of mine who is a huge Broncos fan. He says that the Broncos will take Von Miller, so I've changed my mock just a tad.

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton QB (Auburn)
2. Denver Broncos – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)
3. Buffalo Bills – Marcel Dareus DT (Alabama)
4. Cincinnati Bengals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)
5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson CB (LSU)
6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)
7. San Francisco 49ers – Robert Quinn DE (North Carolina)
8. Tennessee Titans – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)
9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith OT (Southern California)
10. Washington Redskins – Jake Locker QB (Washington)
11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara CB (Nebraska)
12. Minnesota Vikings – Ryan Kerrigan DE (Purdue)
13. Detroit Lions – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)
14. St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith DE (Missouri)
15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey C (Florida)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)
17. New England Patriots – Cameron Jordan DE (California)
18. San Diego Chargers – JJ Watt DE (Wisconsin)
19. New York Giants – Anthony Costanzo OT (Boston College)
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – D’Aquan Bowers DE (Clemson)
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)
22. Indianapolis Colts – Corey Liuget DT (Illinois)
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Phil Taylor DT (Baylor)
24. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)
25. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallet QB (Arkansas)
26. Baltimore Ravens – Aaron Williams CB (Texas)
27. Atlanta Falcons – Adrian Clayborne DE (Iowa)
28. New England Patriots – Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)
29. Chicago Bears – Muhammad Wilkerson DT (Temple)
30. New York Jets – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – James Carpenter OT (Alabama)
32. Green Bay Packers – Cameron Heyward DE (Ohio State)

Miller gives the Broncos another pass rush thread. Not sure what Elvis Dumervil's future holds coming off the injury, but if he comes back healthy, they'll have an excellent set of pass rushers for sure.

The Bills wanted to go to a 3-4 last year, but couldn't get it done. They love Kyle Williams, but he's not a 3-4 NT. So they'll insert Dareus and move Williams to 3-4 DE. The Cards seem dead set against taking QB and are looking for the best player available.




3JACK

[Richie3Jack]

Ah crap. I left out Nick Fairley, 2nd revision.

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton QB (Auburn)
2. Denver Broncos – Von Miller OLB (Texas A&M)
3. Buffalo Bills – Marcel Dareus DT (Alabama)
4. Cincinnati Bengals – AJ Green WR (Georgia)
5. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Peterson CB (LSU)
6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones WR (Alabama)
7. San Francisco 49ers – Nick Fairley DT (Auburn)
8. Tennessee Titans – Blaine Gabbert QB (Missouri)
9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith OT (Southern California)
10. Washington Redskins – Jake Locker QB (Washington)
11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara CB (Nebraska)
12. Minnesota Vikings – Robert Quinn DE (UNC)
13. Detroit Lions – Nate Solder OT (Colorado)
14. St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith DE (Missouri)
15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey C (Florida)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith CB (Colorado)
17. New England Patriots – Cameron Jordan DE (California)
18. San Diego Chargers – JJ Watt DE (Wisconsin)
19. New York Giants – Anthony Costanzo OT (Boston College)
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ryan Kerrigan DE (Purdue)
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin)
22. Indianapolis Colts – Corey Liuget DT (Illinois)
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Phil Taylor DT (Baylor)
24. New Orleans Saints – Mark Ingram RB (Alabama)
25. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallet QB (Arkansas)
26. Baltimore Ravens – Aaron Williams CB (Texas)
27. Atlanta Falcons – Adrian Clayborne DE (Iowa)
28. New England Patriots – Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State)
29. Chicago Bears – Muhammad Wilkerson DT (Temple)
30. New York Jets – Akeem Ayers OLB (UCLA)
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – James Carpenter OT (Alabama)
32. Green Bay Packers – Cameron Heyward DE (Ohio State)

[mchepp]

My new strategy is for the 49ers to trade down in the first round to get Dalton. I agree with your QB analysis, although I am not that high on Newton. Accuracy is so huge and he was not all that entirely accurate, sure his arm is strong, but accuracy is so huge now. I am all together confused on why Gabbert is so high on the board.

Jake Locker is quite a story, would have been early first round last year, now will be lucky to get picked in the first round. One story where a guy cost himself serious coin by staying in school.

[Richie3Jack]

The most accurate mock draft guy is a writer named Rick Gosselin for the Dallas Morning News. He actually has 5 QB's going in the first 12 picks.

Cam at #1 (Panthers)
Gabbert at #7 (Niners)
Locker at #8 (Titans)
Ponder at #10 (Redskins)
Dalton at #12 (Vikings)





3JACK

[mchepp]

Any surprises for you in the first round Richie?

The big one for me was the Vikings taking Christian Ponder. He was a so-so FSU QB. Guess they were going for size and arm strength.

[cwdlaw223]

The Falcons gave up way too much for a number two receiver. Overall, no real screw ups, even by Jerry Jones or Al Davis did well which is odd.

[Richie3Jack]

Al Davis didn't have a first round pick.

Jerry has drafted quite well since '03. You don't go 59-37 in the last 6 seasons without drafting decently.

It is kind of a part I miss about the old draft. There's no collosal blunders. Teams understand the draft game better and I think most teams have followed the Pats (who really learned it from the Cowboys) about trading down to gain more picks). That and fans today pretty much will blindly support anything their teams does. So you don't get any more of those Jets blunders where the fans are calling for the GM's head on a platter.

Ponder was certainly a surprise. I do think the guy can play. I think arm strength is way too overvalued at the QB position. It's a luxury more than anything because you do some things with your playbook that only super strong armed QB's can do (plays designed to throw across the field, etc). But I don't think Peyton Manning has a super strong arm, neither does Drew Brees or Tony Romo.

And some QB's go from average arms to really strong arms over times. Happened to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. They got bigger, refined their mechanics and they added velocity.

Fairley falling wasn't as big of a surprise to me as Detroit picking him up. I actually don't like the move because in football, too many times you're only as good as your weak link. If your secondary blows, then the great pass rush in the world may be rendered ineffective. And as I told some people....if getting two great DT's equated to winning in the NFL...everybody would be trying to get 2 great DT's.

Other than that, I don't really understand the love for Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert over Ryan Mallet. I guess there are some serious red flags for Mallet, but he looks like the most NFL ready QB prospect and outside of Newton, with the most potential.






3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

They told Al last year the draft was a day later which caused them to have a good pick. No wonder he didn't screw it up this year.

The worst thing they could have done for Cowboy haters was to get rid Wade Phillips. He single handedly allowed that paper tiger to implode every year. I want Wade back to ensure the Cowboys don't have a chance (I'm an Eagles fan).

The Fairley pick was great! It will cause opposing offenses to be one dimensional and make their secondary play better because they won't be on their heels to guard against the run. Nobody will be able to run it up the gut on them for at least five years. That's huge. I believe that teams are stockpiling defensive tackles as a strategy. Take the best player available in the first round because you never know who gets injured.

The Packers scare the crap out of me next year given how many great players they had on IR.

[Richie3Jack]

80% of the time the team that passes more efficiently and effectively will win the game. So stopping the run is not nearly enough. In 2006, the Vikings had the league's greatest run defense in the *history* of the NFL. They also ran the ball pretty well with Chester Taylor that year.

The result?

6-10.

They had a poor passing game and they couldn't stop the pass. So being the greatest in the history of the NFL at stopping the run didn't mean much.

What frustrated me the most about Wade was in '09 he started to really 'get on' the players after a frustrating 2008. The result? 11-5 and Wade's first playoff win as a coach (and the beat the Eagles that year...not once, not twice, but THREE times).

Then 2010 comes in and he decides to go back to his old ways.

I understand that habits are hard to break. But when you break a habit and you have great success that is measureable and noticeable...going back to your old ways just makes no sense.

The key for Dallas is if they can finally find a D-Coordinator worth a damn. That has probably plagued them more than anything and they haven't found anybody since Butch Davis






3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

I believe the most important statistic is turnovers, not passing efficiency. Joe Paterno is correct, two out three things bad can happen with a pass (and I don't even like Joe that much past age 65). Defense and a running game will get you a title in the long run. 95% of football plays, schemes, etc. are the same since helmets were introduced. Some years my position is incorrect, but I guarantee you if you can't stop the run you will lose! If you can't stop the pass you still might win.

I'll still take the playoff blowout a few years back over the Cowboys to feed my hatred of the Cowboys for another year or two no matter if we lose or not to them.

Why are Philly fans so arrogant with nothing to show for it? I don't know. I still say that Emmitt Smith should have thanked the Eagles for his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Without the Eagles and his many 200+ yards games against them he wouldn't be there. We made Emmitt!!!!

[Richie3Jack]

Apr 29, 2011 14:43:19 GMT -5 cwdlaw223 said:

I believe the most important statistic is turnovers, not passing efficiency.

You can believe that, but it's not true.

Turnovers have an effect, but not nearly as much as passing efficiency.

You have to understand that on average, the QB is responsible for approximately 75% of the turnovers made by the league...either by INT's or strip fumbles.

Part of passing efficiency is INT's.

Unfortunately, dolts like Chris Berman still think it's all about 'total yards.'

Joe Paterno is correct, two out three things bad can happen with a pass (and I don't even like Joe that much past age 65).

That's because Paterno is a life long college coach. College is far different than the NFL. College is much more run oriented and the talent levels are at such a disparity that the same principles don't apply.

Put it this way.

I can take two simple stats.

1. Turnover Margin.

2. QB Rating Differential (QB rating - QB rating allowed

At the end of the year, #2 will ALWAYS have a MUCH higher statistical correlation to winning in the NFL than #1.

I think turnover margin is important, but just not nearly as much as winning the passing game battle.

Defense and a running game will get you a title in the long run.

Not giving up points is important. Running game? Much less so.

but I guarantee you if you can't stop the run you will lose! If you can't stop the pass you still might win.

The Colts haven't been able to stop the run for years (some years giving up more than 5 yards a carry), but they win the AFC South year after year. Why? Because they win the passing game battle.

I'll still take the playoff blowout a few years back over the Cowboys to feed my hatred of the Cowboys for another year or two no matter if we lose or not to them.

That wasn't a playoff game. That was a week 17 game.






3JACK

[cwdlaw223]

The Colts only have one ring (one more than my Eagles unfortunately). I wouldn't use them as a team to support a passing efficiency scenario. Didn't the Colts D play on fire that year???

What efficient passing team with no run game or decent defense has won a Superbowl in the past 10 years???

We need to meet up at a tournament for this debate over a good steak.

After 5 years of fantasy football and absolutely no real life football experience, I'm uniquely qualified as an expert in this area (that's suppose to be a joke, but true!!)