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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 9, 2012 7:33:09 GMT -5
I've been a proponent of the no-huddle hurry up offense since the days of watching the Bills' K-Gun. There's big advantages to doing it, like not allowing the defense to make adjustments and move around before the snap. Belichick really got this from the Raiders, believe it or not. They used it against the Jets last year and just ran it down the Jets' throat. The Jets defense couldn't make those pre-snap adjustments and disguise coverages and got eaten alive.
The other part is if you get the defense in a personnel package that you like, you can keep that package on the field for the entire drive.
You have to have a good tailback to run this though because the ball has to keep moving because if you throw an incomplete pass, the refs have to get a new ball, stop the clock and re-mark the ball again. That's why the Bills were so good at running it back in the day, they had Thurman Thomas who could not only run the ball, but catch short screen and swing passes.
The only problem is it can produce a lot of 3 and outs which are killers in football. Some will argue how good the execution will be, but I think that sometimes NFL teams do too much that only servies as 'paralysis thru analysis' on their part. Sometimes you just have to hike the ball and run the play.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Oct 9, 2012 11:45:57 GMT -5
I don't know how anyone wins consistently in the NFL. There is such a fine line between winning and losing. Even the Jets looked half decent last night and were putrid the week before. The parity kills me (along with Vick turning over the ball at least 3 times per game).
I suspect the Texans have finally arrived as a legitimate contender for the SB. Still 8-12 teams that could win it given the 16 game season.
I don't know any team in the history of the NFL that has lost a pro bowl left tackle, starting center and QB who turns the ball over at will that has won a SB. (My Eagles this year).
10 Turnover Tony is killing me in my fantasy league which makes he hate Dallas even more there Richie. (I still like Sean Lee, Ware and Jerry Jones).
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 9, 2012 12:15:31 GMT -5
I've been very critical the past few years of Romo, but I don't blame him this year. His receivers are not catching the ball and the O-Line is the worst it has been since 2002.
Many don't realize that Jerry Jones has a wealth of football knowledge, having been a former fullback, offensive guard and captain of the 1964 National Championship Arkansas team.
The problem I have with Jerry is not his inability to find talent, but his inability to get skill sets of players to mesh well. Pittsburgh does this beautifully. They had somebody like Polamalu who was a wild, ulta-talented safety, but he would get lost in coverage responsibilities too often. The Steelers almost never spend much in FA, yet they out-bid everybody for Ryan Clark when he was a FA. Why? Clark is a master at setting up the secondary and good in coverage. Not overly physically gifted, but his skill set meshed perfectly with Polamalu's and turned Polamalu into a defensive player of the year.
Dallas tends to do the opposite. One of the problems we are having is that Witten is more or less the Y-receiver. The gameplan against the Cowboys offense is simple...stack the box and show blitz. The offense will have to make a hot read. As good as Witten is (and I do *not* believe he's lost a step), he's never been the type that can catch a hot read and get yards after the catch. He's more of a great route runner, understanding holes in the zone type, catch the 10-15 yard passes and get stopped there.
So if the defense stacks the box and shows blitz, Romo may get the ball to Witten on a 5-yard pass, but that's all the yardage they are going to get. And in the end, D-Coordinators are willing to give up the occasional 5-yard pass if it means they can force turnovers and get sacks.
So it's not that Dez, Miles, Witten and Romo are untalented or overrated. But, they need that speedy slashing slot WR who can take the pass and get yards after the catch. Again, poor mesh of skill sets.
As far as the league goes, the first step to winning consistently is good QB play and a QB that can stay healthy. If you look at every team over the years that has consistently won, they always have a good QB that stays healthy. That's what has gone on with the Pats and Brady and used to be with the Colts and Peyton. And now we are seeing that with the G-Men and Eli. The QB's like Vick, hot one year, bad the other.
I think if you don't quite have that, the only other step is to have a decent QB and an organization and head coach that can think ahead as far as schemes and personnel go. That's such a big part of the NFL that most don't realize, every team has to add new wrinkles to their defenses and offenses for the next season because teams will have figured out what they do well and what they don't do well.
I think what we have seen in the past 5 years is that teams got into spread offenses and passing the ball everywhere and quite frequently. Those who conceived this early on, were successful in the regular season.
I think now we are seeing the defenses adjust better and now that every team is trying to spread it out and throw the ball, defenses are more used to playing against that and they are just more skilled at defending it.
So now we are seeing a few teams that are trying to use innovative ways to run the ball more effectively. The Pats are doing it with hurrying up the offense. The Niners are doing it with innovative play designs and using different blockers.
Games in the league are still determined by what team passes more effectively. But what the Pats and Niners are doing is finding ways to run the ball effectively so they can make it easier to produce in the passing game and take a load off their defense.
I'm sure in about 5 years we'll see similar things all across the league as teams will start to run more and then it will be up to the smart organizations and coaches to come up with a new philosophy that works.
The problem is that many coaches either have too big of an ego to switch or are too scared to go away from something that worked for them or just don't have enough knowledge or insight on innovating a scheme.
3JACK
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Post by cwdlaw223 on Oct 9, 2012 21:38:48 GMT -5
Good summary Richie. I think it's very, very hard to draft correctly. Andy Reid sucks at drafting studs except for the 2nd round (ex. Desean Jackson, McCoy and Kendricks this year). Blowing a first round pick sets a team back significantly.
Dallas just needs a good line and the skill players will fit. I'll take Jerry's passion for the game anytime AND his willingness to pay and gamble even if he's wrong a fair amount of the time.
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Post by kamandi on Oct 10, 2012 0:20:11 GMT -5
The league is moving towards specialization, where a player need not be good at everything his position entails, as long as he's really good at one specific skill for his position. The game then becomes putting in the best pieces to get the most out of a specific play. Bellichick is a master of that.
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Post by kamandi on Oct 10, 2012 1:08:26 GMT -5
I think the 3 main ingredients to winning are talent, coaching, and leadership.
The 49ers went from 6-10 to 13-3; they had all the same talent the previous season, but what they didn't have was Jim Harbaugh, who brought in the coaching and leadership.
Dallas has the talent and coaching, but I don't think they have the leadership.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 10, 2012 7:42:27 GMT -5
I'm not so sure Dallas has the coaching. People forget that Garrett has ran the offense since 2007 and it has regressed ever since. At first I was quick to blame Wade, but now that Garrett runs the show, I'm not so sure.
Garrett struggles to maintain play call balance on first down. Then when he forgets about the run, the next week he will run the ball, but entirely too much. I think the optimal playcalling is roughly 50/50 on first down and then 40 run to 60 pass on 2nd and 9 or more yards. Garrett can run in extremes in first down and then go 10 run to 90 pass on anything longer than 8 yards on 2nd down. It's so predictable it's sadly amusing to watch.
As far as drafting goes, I think the best solution is to do what Jimmy Johnson did. Stockpile picks. If you're success rate at getting quality picks in the first 4 rounds is 50%, then double the amount of picks you can get and effectively double the number of quality players come out of that.
Before the rookie salary cap, economists determined that 2nd round picks were the 'best' picks in the draft because they often performed extremely well and were at a very affordable cost. If they were a bust, then it wasn't a problem because the cost was so low.
I think now with the rookie cap, teams should start stockpiling 1st and 2nd rounders because they are more affordable. They are also more affordable than veterans and can do the same job. Along with being younger, less likely to get hurt.
I was surprised to see Belichick not stockpile 1st rounders in this past draft with the new rookie cap. I think he made a mistake there.
3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Oct 10, 2012 10:11:23 GMT -5
Bellichick needed immediate, high impact players for defense, so he needed to take someone with his 1st round pick. The way it's looking, Chandler Jones is an impact player that the Pats needed.
This year, the defensive playmakers were in the 1st round, but there was really good value for WRs in the 2nd round.l
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 10, 2012 10:18:09 GMT -5
It really depends on if he's able to wheel and deal to stockpile picks the next year. One of the unique things about the draft is if you are able to stockpile picks one year, you can continue to stockpile picks year after year. But once you use all of those picks and you have the standard 1 pick per round, it often takes years to feasibly stockpile picks.
I have the preference of stockpiling the picks to give the team leverage and flexibility in their decision making each year.
3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Oct 11, 2012 5:58:38 GMT -5
To me, you only stockpile picks when you don't believe the available players are worth the draft position.
Bellichick may have stockpiled for a while, but it's gotten him a lot of very average role players.
The value for defensive players in the 1st round, as well as the value for WRs in the 2nd round would make it wasteful not to pull the trigger on early draft picks this season, if you had a defensive or WR need.
Another way to stockpile draft picks is through compensatory picks, which I believe the Pats are pretty good at working.
If you needed a QB, DE, DB, or WR, this draft was the one to pull the trigger on.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 11, 2012 7:44:01 GMT -5
To me, you only stockpile picks when you don't believe the available players are worth the draft position. I disagree because the draft is such a crapshoot. It's not that the scouts cannot be very good. But the #1 reason is the injury rate throws everything out of whack. Most fans view injuries from a career ending or player who can't stay on the field perspective. But they also forget those injuries that may be for half the season and the player is no longer as effective as he once was. Chandler Jones could tear his triceps tomorrow, be out for 2 months and wind up being average player. Hell, just look at Brian Orakpo. Problem is...nobody can predict that or really guard against it other that stockpile picks. It has also gotten him a lot of great players. And it has allowed him to pick up players in trades he wanted, like Moss for a 4th rounder and Welker for a 2nd rounder. Compensatory picks are only given if you lose players to Free Agency and you lose more players than you obtained in free agency. Then you get a compensatory pick of no higher than the 3rd round, depeding upon the player's contract and playing time with their new team that season. I agree, I just think that one could still stockpile picks. The draft, no matter how good it looks, is unpredictable mainly because of the injury rate. All of the great scouting and coaching can't overcome that. If you need a QB in the draft and you see one, you have to take it if the guy you want is there. But other than that, the value of the other positions...particularly where you can find great players in other rounds, are not worth the value. Perhaps the Pats can pull a trade for Welker or another veteran like that. 3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Oct 11, 2012 12:08:11 GMT -5
imo, stockpiling picks to safeguard against draft busts or injuries is not really increasing picks, but delaying them. The only reason you trade away a pick is because you're betting on a better quality player in the next draft, or you see better player value at a later round.
Hedging against failing with a 1st rounder lessens risk, but limits potential, too.
On the 2nd point, Bellichick's defense has been mediocre for a long time now. It was filled with a lot of young, average players, who are saved by Bellichick's schemes. On offense, Bellichick needed to trade for Welker and Moss, because the skills players Brady had were pretty average. Now, his deep threat is again not drafted by him. He hit on Gronk and Hernandez recently, but what made them better players is, again, Bellichick's ability to scheme on offense.
The Pats do have a strategy to work the compensatory picks rule in the way the timing that they acquire FAs, in conjunction with expiring players contracts. It's another reason they sometimes have a lot of picks. Bellichick does everything to work the system.
His constant trading down of these past few year, however, have wasted some of Brady's peak years, in that the level of talent they draft hasn't been anything special.
Now if you look at the Packers, then you'll see an organization that knows how to acquire the best talent at every level of the draft.
Bellichick has been good at trading away players while they still have value.
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Post by kamandi on Oct 11, 2012 12:16:30 GMT -5
On a different note, Cam just does not look right. He looks so tentative.
I think the Panthers have to go to a more fundamental offense, for now. Forget the read option, and just run regular rushing plays with regular hand-offs, and not always in the shotgun position. The Panthers should fully work their 2 RBs to relieve pressure off of the young Cam.
On passing plays, design quick plays where he throws to his 1st option, to help him get more decisive. Get him used to throwing immediately.
Right now, Cam is thinking way too much, both in the passing game, and in the running game.
I blame the OC. He's making Cam think too much, and Cam isn't trusting what he sees. The OC should get Cam to playing more instinctively again.
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Post by Richie3Jack on Oct 11, 2012 12:36:40 GMT -5
I would not use the term 'potential' because there are so many 2nd rounders or late first rounders that have become Hall of Famers. I think not trading down to stockpile picks or to trade up should be done with the hopes that they'll increase the likelihood of finding a player who ends up with Pro Bowl value. But as far as player potential goes, great players can easly happen in the first 3 rounds.
Where I think the 1 position they don't happen much outside of the 1st round these days is at QB. I think that the great QB's are geneally going to be found in the 1st round or they are a little known college QB that goes in the latter rounds or undrafted. Or maybe you get a QB like a Drew Brees who was considered undersized an proves the league wrong by working around his lack of size. Although I think those QB's are far and few between because there is so much focus on scouting QB's that if a QB went to a big college program and was not drafted in the 1st round, they probably are just not going to be a franchise QB in the NFL.
The other part is that QB is too important of a position in the NFL. The other positions pale in comparison in terms of its affect on team's performance and probability of winning. I could pass up on a Chandler Jones and find a Tyrone Crawford in the 3rd round. If Crawford were to perform a bit less than Jones, the overall impact on the Patriots' chances of winning would practically be nil as long as Brady stays healthy and continues to perform like he does.
We also have to remember that defensive players are 2 times as likely to get injured than offensive players in the NFL. Thus, if you want to improve the defense stockpiling picks is a good way to go because you can have more players and fresher talent on the team. The Patriots woes on defense had a lot to do with preferring to sign cheap veterans and thinking they could still use WR's like Edelman as CB's and teams wouldn't figure how to target that.
Lastly, the problem with relying on compensatory picks is that for the most part, you're looking at 6th round picks. While you definitely want to stockpile those picks because their success rate at that round is so low, I'm more interested in stockpiling 1-3 round picks.
3JACK
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Post by kamandi on Oct 12, 2012 9:39:45 GMT -5
Richie, we have a disconnect, because we don't see the expected values of each round of the draft, nor the ability of scouts to spot top end talent, in the same way. We also don't see the possibility of injuries (from prospects with no injury history) in the same way, with respect to it affecting draft decisions.
That's okay, though; everyone has different approaches.
I'm such a fan of the Bears' new GM, Phil Emery. He outlined his draft strategy during the offseason ...
The 1st round is for impact players who can start immediately. The 2nd and 3rd rounds are players who are expected to contribute immediately in the offensive or defensive rotation. The 4th and 5th rounds are players who can immediately contribute in special teams, while developing their craft. The 6th and 7th rounds are for the projects ... it's here that upside is important, as these are developmental players who, if they make the team, will most likely be practice squad players.
So, with Emery's draft strategy, he's not trying to find immediate starters at every level of the draft; he's trying to build both the present and the future with every draft. I like it, because it sounds practical and more realistic than teams that desperately look for another Brandon Marshall in the 4th round, or Tom Brady in the 6th round.
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